CFP Pulse.
The BBMI model’s projected 2026-27 College Football Playoff, before a single snap. Twelve teams — five auto-bid projected conference champions plus seven at-large — seeded straight from the 2026 preseason BBMIF rankings. Ohio State opens as the No. 1 seed and 30.1% title favorite. Matchups beyond the first round show the most likely path, not a certainty. This is a preseason projection, not a result.
2026 preseason projection — updates when the real field formsHow to read this: the percentage on each slot is the BBMI model’s probability of reaching that round, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations over initial 2026 SP+ ratings (win prob from rating margin, sigma 18.6, +2.0 home edge in campus first-round games). The field is projected: the highest-ranked team in each of the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC plus the best Group of 6 champion (Boise State) take the five auto-bids; the next seven teams by preseason BBMIF fill the at-large slots. Quarterfinals onward show the modal bracket — favorites advancing. Everything updates once real games are played.
Projected title odds
2026 preseason · 10,000 sims| Team | Seed | Title odds | Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
 Ohio State | 1 | 30.1% | Auto-bid |
 Oregon | 2 | 19.3% | At-large |
 Notre Dame | 3 | 13.3% | At-large |
 Georgia | 4 | 12.0% | Auto-bid |
 Indiana | 5 | 8.1% | At-large |
 Texas | 6 | 5.3% | At-large |
 Texas Tech | 7 | 4.3% | Auto-bid |
 Miami (FL) | 8 | 2.6% | Auto-bid |
 LSU | 10 | 2.1% | At-large |
 Texas A&M | 9 | 1.8% | At-large |
 Alabama | 11 | 1.1% | At-large |
 Boise State | 12 | 0.1% | Auto-bid |
Field, seeds and odds are projected from the 2026 preseason BBMIF rankings, which anchor to Bill Connelly’s initial 2026 SP+ (published March 27, 2026). Auto-bids go to the projected champions of the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC and the best Group of 6 conference. No 2026 games have been played — this page becomes a live bracket once the season starts and the real field takes shape.