CFP Pulse.
The BBMI model’s projected 2026-27 College Football Playoff. Twelve teams, five auto-bid conference champions plus seven at-large, drawn from 200,000 simulated seasons that carry every result so far. Notre Dame projects as the No. 1 seed at 14% to win it. Matchups past the first round show the most likely path, not a fixed bracket.
Rebuilt daily from the season simulation · 2026-09-14How to read this: the percentage beside each team in the bracket is its chance of reaching that round at all, across 200,000 simulated seasons. It is not conditional on this bracket, so a team with a first-round bye still shows less than 100% to reach the quarterfinal: it has to make the field first. Win probabilities come from the rating margin between the two teams (sigma 18.6, plus 2.0 for the host in campus first-round games). Five auto-bids go to the projected conference champions and seven at-large places follow, ranked on a resume of simulated wins adjusted for team quality and schedule strength. Run against the 2024 and 2025 seasons that rule picks 23 of the 24 teams the committee actually selected. Quarterfinals onward show favorites advancing, not fixed matchups.
The projected field
200,000 simulated seasons| Seed | Team | Conference | Bid | Holds this slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Notre Dame | FBS Independents | At-large | 23% |
| 2 |  Ohio State | Big Ten | Auto-bid | 12% |
| 3 |  Georgia | SEC | Auto-bid | 9% |
| 4 |  Indiana | Big Ten | At-large | 7% |
| 5 |  Texas | SEC | At-large | 6% |
| 6 |  Oregon | Big Ten | At-large | 6% |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | Big 12 | Auto-bid | 5% |
| 8 |  Miami (FL) | ACC | Auto-bid | 8% |
| 9 |  LSU | SEC | At-large | 6% |
| 10 |  Texas A&M | SEC | At-large | 6% |
| 11 |  Penn State | Big Ten | At-large | 2% |
| 12 |  James Madison | Sun Belt | Auto-bid | 13% |
Holds this slot is how often this exact seed line belonged to this team across the simulations. It is not the team’s chance of making the playoff, which is in the table below and is a larger number. Eleven of the twelve places are close to settled; the last one or two genuinely are not, and the slot percentages are where that shows. One field, not a top twelve: the model draws a field that has to hold together, with one champion per conference taking an auto-bid. So a team can sit outside it while being likelier to reach the playoff than a team inside it. Today 9 teams are in that position, BYU, Alabama, Michigan among them, all above James Madison at 17%.
Playoff contenders
28 teams at 10% or better to make the field| # | Team | Proj W-L | Win conf | Make CFP | Top-4 bye | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame1FBS Independents | 10.6-1.4 | - | 88% | 60% | 14% |
| 2 | Georgia3SEC | 9.6-2.4 | 47% | 79% | 45% | 12% |
| 3 | Ohio State2Big Ten | 9.3-2.7 | 50% | 79% | 44% | 25% |
| 4 | Texas Tech7Big 12 | 10.3-1.7 | 64% | 77% | 31% | 5% |
| 5 | Miami (FL)8ACC | 9.8-2.2 | 63% | 73% | 26% | 5% |
| 6 | Oregon6Big Ten | 9.1-2.9 | 27% | 72% | 30% | 14% |
| 7 | Indiana4Big Ten | 9.7-2.3 | 14% | 70% | 34% | 9% |
| 8 | Texas5SEC | 8.8-3.2 | 15% | 63% | 32% | 5% |
| 9 | LSU9SEC | 8.7-3.3 | 10% | 50% | 16% | 3% |
| 10 | Texas A&M10SEC | 8.5-3.5 | 9% | 41% | 12% | 2% |
| 11 |  BYUBig 12 | 8.9-3.1 | 21% | 37% | 8% | 1% |
| 12 | Penn State11Big Ten | 8.9-3.1 | 4% | 36% | 9% | 1% |
| 13 |  AlabamaSEC | 8.1-3.9 | 5% | 32% | 8% | 1% |
| 14 |  MichiganBig Ten | 7.9-4.1 | 1% | 30% | 7% | 1% |
| 15 |  SMUACC | 8.6-3.4 | 15% | 27% | 3% | <1% |
| 16 |  USCBig Ten | 7.9-4.1 | 1% | 24% | 5% | 1% |
| 17 |  TennesseeSEC | 8.1-3.9 | 4% | 24% | 6% | 1% |
| 18 |  Ole MissSEC | 7.6-4.4 | 2% | 17% | 4% | <1% |
| 19 |  IowaBig Ten | 8.1-3.9 | 1% | 17% | 3% | <1% |
| 20 |  WashingtonBig Ten | 7.9-4.1 | 1% | 17% | 4% | <1% |
| 21 | James Madison12Sun Belt | 9.0-3.0 | 39% | 17% | <1% | <1% |
| 22 |  MissouriSEC | 7.5-4.5 | 2% | 15% | 3% | <1% |
| 23 |  OklahomaSEC | 6.9-5.1 | 5% | 14% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 |  MemphisAmerican Athletic | 8.1-3.9 | 24% | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 |  UtahBig 12 | 8.2-3.8 | 4% | 13% | 2% | <1% |
| 26 |  FloridaSEC | 7.1-4.9 | 1% | 11% | 2% | <1% |
| 27 |  South FloridaAmerican Athletic | 8.6-3.4 | 15% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 |  ClemsonACC | 7.5-4.5 | 6% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
Projected record is the expected win total over the simulated seasons, so it carries a decimal and will not match any single season exactly. Win conf reads “-” for independents, who have no conference to win. Percentages are whole numbers because the simulation’s run-to-run noise is about 0.8 of a point, and a tenth would claim precision it does not have.
On the bubble
20% to 50% to make the field| Team | Conference | Proj W-L | Make CFP | Win conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | SEC | 8.7-3.3 | 50% | 10% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8.5-3.5 | 41% | 9% |
| BYU | Big 12 | 8.9-3.1 | 37% | 21% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 8.9-3.1 | 36% | 4% |
| Alabama | SEC | 8.1-3.9 | 32% | 5% |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 7.9-4.1 | 30% | 1% |
| SMU | ACC | 8.6-3.4 | 27% | 15% |
| USC | Big Ten | 7.9-4.1 | 24% | 1% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 8.1-3.9 | 24% | 4% |
These are the teams the season actually turns on. A run of results moves them into the field or out of it, which is not true of the teams above 50% or below 20%.