NCAA FOOTBALL · COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF · 2026 SEASON

CFP Pulse.

The BBMI model’s projected 2026-27 College Football Playoff. Twelve teams, five auto-bid conference champions plus seven at-large, drawn from simulated seasons that carry every result so far. Miami (FL) projects as the model’s favorite at 25% to win it. Matchups past the first round show the most likely path, not a fixed bracket.

Rebuilt daily from the season simulation · 2026-10-29

Field · five auto-bids, seven at-large

Miami (FL)

Model favorite · 25% title odds

Teams at 5%+ to make the field

200,000

Simulated seasons

HOW TO READ THIS

The percentage beside each team is its chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated season, not conditional on this bracket. That is why a team with a first-round bye still shows less than 100% to reach the quarterfinal: it has to make the field first. Five auto-bids go to the projected conference champions and seven at-large places follow. Quarterfinals onward show favorites advancing, not fixed matchups. Two numbers here look alike and are not. The contenders table carries marginal probabilities across every simulated season; the bracket and the slot column describe one coherent field the model drew. A team can miss the drawn field while holding a better chance of making the playoff than a team in it, which is a consequence of drawing a field that has to hold together.

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

College Football Playoff 2026-27

Projected 12-team bracket

FIRST ROUNDon campus

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

First Round · Campus · Dec 19

12James Madison38%

5Georgia88%

BBMI Georgiaedge 18.2

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

First Round · Campus · Dec 19

9Alabama33%

8BYU73%

BBMI Alabamaedge 2.2

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

First Round · Campus · Dec 20

11LSU40%

6Notre Dame93%

BBMI Notre Dameedge 2

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

First Round · Campus · Dec 20

10Texas Tech57%

7Utah82%

BBMI Utahedge 1.7

QUARTERFINALS

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Quarterfinal · Jan 1

5Georgia80%

4UCLA63%

BBMI Georgiaedge 12.8

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Quarterfinal · Jan 1

9Alabama21%

1Miami (FL)95%

BBMI Miami (FL)edge 3.8

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Quarterfinal · Jan 1

6Notre Dame82%

3Ohio State87%

BBMI Ohio Stateedge 3.4

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Quarterfinal · Jan 1

7Utah64%

2Indiana93%

BBMI Indianaedge 6.1

SEMIFINALS

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Semifinal · Jan 8

5Georgia52%

1Miami (FL)65%

BBMI Georgiaedge 2.4

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Semifinal · Jan 9

3Ohio State58%

2Indiana53%

BBMI Ohio Stateedge 4.4

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

National Championship · Jan 25

5Georgia31%

3Ohio State35%

BBMI Ohio Stateedge 1.5

31% chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated seasonBBMI projected winner · edge in pointsQuarterfinals onward = most likely path, not fixed matchups

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

Playoff contenders

138 teams at 1%+ to make the field

#TEAMPROJ W-LWIN CONFMAKE CFPTOP-4 BYEWIN TITLE

1Miami (FL)1ACC11.3–0.7100%100%72%25%

2Indiana2Big Ten10.8–1.29%98%75%12%

3Ohio State3Big Ten10.2–1.872%93%51%20%

4Notre Dame6FBS Independents10.4–1.6—93%43%13%

5Georgia5SEC10.3–1.786%88%48%17%

6UCLA4Big Ten10.9–1.119%85%40%2%

7Utah7Big 1210.7–1.356%82%36%3%

8BYU8Big 129.9–2.112%73%15%2%

9Texas Tech10Big 129.8–2.224%57%8%<1%

10HoustonBig 129.4–2.60%47%0%<1%

11LSU11SEC8.9–3.13%40%2%2%

12James Madison12Sun Belt10.7–1.377%38%0%0%

13TexasSEC8.3–3.7<1%38%3%<1%

14Alabama9SEC9.2–2.83%33%2%1%

15TennesseeSEC9.0–3.03%29%<1%<1%

16UTSAAmerican Athletic9.8–2.246%26%0%0%

17ArizonaBig 129.4–2.64%23%1%<1%

18Wake ForestACC9.8–2.2<1%21%<1%<1%

19NorthwesternBig Ten9.0–3.0<1%20%1%<1%

20KentuckySEC8.7–3.33%19%2%<1%

21New MexicoMountain West9.7–2.370%19%0%0%

22Oklahoma StateBig 128.7–3.35%12%0%0%

23NebraskaBig Ten8.5–3.50%12%0%<1%

24Boise StatePac-129.3–1.782%12%0%0%

25SMUACC9.3–2.7<1%11%<1%0%

26Ole MissSEC8.5–3.5<1%10%<1%0%

27LibertyConference USA10.5–1.582%8%0%0%

28WisconsinBig Ten8.7–3.3<1%5%0%0%

29MissouriSEC8.0–4.0<1%3%0%0%

30FloridaSEC7.9–4.1<1%2%0%0%

31MemphisAmerican Athletic8.9–3.117%1%0%0%

32USCBig Ten7.6–4.40%1%<1%0%

33IowaBig Ten7.3–4.70%<1%0%0%

34ArmyAmerican Athletic8.2–3.811%<1%0%0%

35North TexasAmerican Athletic8.7–3.326%<1%0%0%

36Louisiana TechSun Belt8.6–3.422%<1%0%0%

37CincinnatiBig 127.2–4.80%<1%0%0%

38North Dakota StateMountain West9.6–2.419%<1%0%0%

39OklahomaSEC6.4–5.60%<1%0%0%

40OregonBig Ten6.9–5.10%<1%0%0%

41Air ForceMountain West8.0–4.0<1%0%0%0%

42AkronMid-American1.5–10.50%0%0%0%

43Appalachian StateSun Belt8.1–3.9<1%0%0%0%

44Arizona StateBig 125.5–6.50%0%0%0%

45ArkansasSEC3.8–8.20%0%0%0%

46Arkansas StateSun Belt6.5–5.50%0%0%0%

47AuburnSEC6.3–5.70%0%0%0%

48Ball StateMid-American4.2–7.80%0%0%0%

49BaylorBig 125.9–6.10%0%0%0%

50Boston CollegeACC5.5–6.50%0%0%0%

51Bowling GreenMid-American3.6–8.40%0%0%0%

52BuffaloMid-American7.3–4.7<1%0%0%0%

53CaliforniaACC4.1–7.90%0%0%0%

54Central MichiganMid-American5.1–6.90%0%0%0%

55CharlotteAmerican Athletic1.3–10.70%0%0%0%

56ClemsonACC6.1–5.90%0%0%0%

57Coastal CarolinaSun Belt3.5–8.50%0%0%0%

58ColoradoBig 122.7–9.30%0%0%0%

59Colorado StatePac-124.3–6.70%0%0%0%

60ConnecticutFBS Independents6.4–5.6—0%0%0%

61DelawareConference USA6.0–6.00%0%0%0%

62DukeACC7.4–4.60%0%0%0%

63East CarolinaAmerican Athletic6.0–6.00%0%0%0%

64Eastern MichiganMid-American5.4–6.60%0%0%0%

65FIUConference USA6.2–5.80%0%0%0%

66Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic6.5–5.50%0%0%0%

67Florida StateACC5.4–6.60%0%0%0%

68Fresno StatePac-126.3–4.70%0%0%0%

69Georgia SouthernSun Belt5.8–6.2<1%0%0%0%

70Georgia StateSun Belt6.5–5.50%0%0%0%

71Georgia TechACC2.7–9.30%0%0%0%

72HawaiiMountain West4.1–7.90%0%0%0%

73IllinoisBig Ten5.9–6.10%0%0%0%

74Iowa StateBig 124.0–8.00%0%0%0%

75Jacksonville StateConference USA9.0–3.018%0%0%0%

76KansasBig 124.6–7.40%0%0%0%

77Kansas StateBig 126.7–5.30%0%0%0%

78Kennesaw StateConference USA3.3–8.70%0%0%0%

79Kent StateMid-American4.4–7.60%0%0%0%

80LouisianaSun Belt8.3–3.7<1%0%0%0%

81Louisiana MonroeSun Belt1.8–10.20%0%0%0%

82LouisvilleACC7.9–4.10%0%0%0%

83MarshallSun Belt6.6–5.40%0%0%0%

84MarylandBig Ten2.7–9.30%0%0%0%

85MassachusettsMid-American6.1–5.90%0%0%0%

86Miami (OH)Mid-American7.5–4.53%0%0%0%

87MichiganBig Ten6.3–5.70%0%0%0%

88Michigan StateBig Ten3.1–8.90%0%0%0%

89Middle TennesseeConference USA5.9–6.10%0%0%0%

90MinnesotaBig Ten6.4–5.60%0%0%0%

91Mississippi StateSEC6.5–5.50%0%0%0%

92Missouri StateConference USA4.0–8.00%0%0%0%

93NavyAmerican Athletic4.2–7.80%0%0%0%

94NC StateACC5.5–6.50%0%0%0%

95NevadaMountain West5.6–6.4<1%0%0%0%

96New Mexico StateConference USA4.4–7.60%0%0%0%

97North CarolinaACC5.7–6.30%0%0%0%

98Northern IllinoisMountain West0.5–11.50%0%0%0%

99OhioMid-American8.8–3.253%0%0%0%

100Old DominionSun Belt3.6–8.40%0%0%0%

101Oregon StatePac-127.5–3.516%0%0%0%

102Penn StateBig Ten6.7–5.30%0%0%0%

103PittsburghACC7.7–4.30%0%0%0%

104PurdueBig Ten4.6–7.40%0%0%0%

105RiceAmerican Athletic1.9–10.10%0%0%0%

106RutgersBig Ten2.6–9.40%0%0%0%

107Sacramento StateMid-American1.6–10.40%0%0%0%

108Sam Houston StateConference USA2.1–9.90%0%0%0%

109San Diego StatePac-124.6–6.40%0%0%0%

110San Jose StateMountain West5.6–7.40%0%0%0%

111South AlabamaSun Belt6.1–5.90%0%0%0%

112South CarolinaSEC7.0–5.00%0%0%0%

113South FloridaAmerican Athletic8.1–3.90%0%0%0%

114Southern MissSun Belt3.6–8.40%0%0%0%

115StanfordACC4.4–7.60%0%0%0%

116SyracuseACC4.4–7.60%0%0%0%

117TCUBig 124.7–7.30%0%0%0%

118TempleAmerican Athletic4.0–8.00%0%0%0%

119Texas A&MSEC4.8–7.20%0%0%0%

120Texas StatePac-126.3–4.71%0%0%0%

121ToledoMid-American9.2–2.840%0%0%0%

122TroySun Belt4.4–7.60%0%0%0%

123TulaneAmerican Athletic5.3–6.70%0%0%0%

124TulsaAmerican Athletic6.7–5.30%0%0%0%

125UABAmerican Athletic6.0–6.0<1%0%0%0%

126UCFBig 127.4–4.60%0%0%0%

127UNLVMountain West7.2–4.84%0%0%0%

128Utah StatePac-123.3–7.70%0%0%0%

129UTEPMountain West2.1–9.90%0%0%0%

130VanderbiltSEC3.2–8.80%0%0%0%

131VirginiaACC6.1–5.90%0%0%0%

132Virginia TechACC8.0–4.00%0%0%0%

133WashingtonBig Ten5.7–6.30%0%0%0%

134Washington StatePac-121.4–9.60%0%0%0%

135West VirginiaBig 125.5–6.50%0%0%0%

136Western KentuckyConference USA4.6–7.40%0%0%0%

137Western MichiganMid-American8.2–3.84%0%0%0%

138WyomingMountain West7.2–4.86%0%0%0%

Projected record is the expected win total over the simulated seasons, so it carries a decimal and will not match any single season exactly. Win conf reads as a dash for independents, who have no conference to win, which is not the same as a 0%. Percentages are whole numbers because the simulation’s run-to-run noise is larger than a tenth of a point.

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

The projected field

200,000 sims

SDTEAMBIDSLOT

1Miami (FL)ACCAUTO38%

2IndianaBig TenAUTO25%

3Ohio StateBig TenAT-LG9%

4UCLABig TenAT-LG9%

5GeorgiaSECAUTO6%

6Notre DameFBS IndependentsAT-LG7%

7UtahBig 12AUTO3%

8BYUBig 12AT-LG15%

9AlabamaSECAT-LG1%

10Texas TechBig 12AT-LG12%

11LSUSECAT-LG7%

12James MadisonSun BeltAUTO32%

Seeds 1 through 4 carry the first-round bye and are shaded. Slot is how often this exact seed line belonged to this team across the simulations, which is not the team’s chance of making the playoff, the larger number in the contenders table. Eleven of the twelve places are close to settled; the last one or two genuinely are not, and the slot percentages are where that shows.

Last updated: Oct 29, 2026

On the bubble

20% to 50% to make the field

Houston9.447%

LSU8.940%

James Madison10.738%

Texas8.338%

Alabama9.233%

Tennessee9.029%

UTSA9.826%

Arizona9.423%

Wake Forest9.821%

Northwestern9.020%

These are the teams the last places actually turn on. One result moves them into the field or out of it, which is not true of the teams above 50% or below 20%.

Probabilities may not add to 100%. Conference-championship and selection behavior are modeled, not known. All results are model projections, not guarantees.