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Independent predictive models for baseball, basketball, and football — built by an actuary. Every forecast is published before the games, tracked publicly, and never edited.

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Public record since 2024 · 10,000+ games logged · no retroactive edits

From the research desk

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What-if · 9,000 sims

What losing Aaron Judge actually costs the Yankees

We re-ran the rest of the season 9,000 times — with Judge and without. About three wins, and a real shave off the division odds. A seeding cost, not a collapse.

Jun 15 · 5 min read
Park factors

What the wind off Lake Michigan does to Wrigley run scoring

Wind swing up to ~1 run · Jun 13Simulation

What 10,000 sims say about the NL Central

Brewers 96.3% division · Jun 13Playoff Pulse

The College World Series, simulated 10,000 times

No favorite in Omaha · Jun 13

The record, by league

Full methodology →
NCAA Basketball65.1%Premium ATS win rate395 graded games · edge ≥ 6 pts
n=395Premium 65.1
NCAA Baseball62.2%Premium O/U win rate172 graded games · edge ≥ 4 runs
All picks 54.7Premium 62.2
NCAA Football64.3%Premium ATS win rate347 games · walk-forward validated
n=347Premium 64.3
MLBIn calibrationNew F9 simulation engine deployed May 2026. The live track record is building now — we publish it as it accrues, not before.
Run lines + totalsTracking live
NFL32Teams ranked weeklyOpponent-adjusted power ratings. Rankings only — no picks.
Analytics contentUpdated weekly
New · updated Jun 82026 College World Series probabilitiesAll 8 CWS teams locked · Omaha begins Friday · 10,000 simulationsExplore →

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Jun 16
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✓Picks logged pre-game✓Never edited✓Public track record since 2024