BBMI Rank · #16 of 136
Virginia
Record 11-3ACCPower rating 25.6
Quality wins
-1.4
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #56SP+ Off
28.8
56th
YPP diff
+1.14
45th
TO margin
-0.07
52nd
Defense
SP+ #19SP+ Def
18.1
19th
Q-Wins
-1.4
vs top 25
Sp. teams
+0.5
56th
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 1 | N Missouri#57 | W 13–7 | Virginia -7.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Dec 7 | 15 | N Duke#25 | L 20–27 | Virginia -2.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 30 | 14 | vs Virginia Tech#121 | W 27–7 | Virginia -25.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 15 | 12 | @Duke#25 | W 34–17 | Virginia -6.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 9 | 11 | vs Wake Forest#55 | L 9–16 | Virginia -8.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 1 | 10 | @ California#66 | W 31–21 | Virginia -7.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 25 | 9 | @ North Carolina#111 | W 17–16 | Virginia -21.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 18 | 8 | vs Washington State#58 | W 22–20 | Virginia -9.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 4 | 6 | @ Louisville#15 | W 30–27 | Virginia +4.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 26 | 5 | vs Florida State#47 | W 46–38 | Virginia -7.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 20 | 4 | vs Stanford#119 | W 48–20 | Virginia -24.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 13 | 3 | vs W&M William & Mary Tribe | W 55–16 | No line | — |
| Sep 6 | 2 | @ NC State#27 | L 31–35 | Virginia +4.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Aug 30 | 1 | vs Coastal Carolina#123 | W 48–7 | Virginia -25.5 | ✓ Covered |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.