BBMI · RESEARCH
Previews, simulations and model notes
Everything the models learn, written up. Team previews come from the same simulations that drive the rankings; every experiment is reported whether or not it worked.
BBMI World Series Update: Up 3–0, Milwaukee Is 95% to Win the Series
The Brewers won Games 1 and 2 by one run each and Game 3 by nine. BBMI now gives Milwaukee a 95% chance to finish the Series. Tampa Bay needs four straight wins, starting with tonight’s Game 4 at Tropicana Field.
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95%
Brewers win Series · Up from 52% on Oct. 16
44% Game 4 tonight5% Rays four straight
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8 of 72 pieces, plus the featured oneMETHODBBMI Weekly Review: 26-30-5, With NFL Totals at 7-2-1NFL spreads and college football drove a 6.9-unit loss from Oct. 15 through Oct. 26. NFL totals went 7-2-1, and the MLB postseason record reached 18-5-2. Here are the results, the biggest misses and the plays behind the grades.Oct 26ANALYSISIs WIAA Basketball Fair to Small, Isolated Schools?Private, charter and Montessori programs make up 18% of Wisconsin's Division 4 and 5 basketball brackets and have won 48% of the state titles since 2011. Enrollment, the number WIAA uses to sort schools, does not measure how many players a school can draw from.Oct 23SIMULATIONWorld Series Preview: Brewers 65% vs. Cleveland, 52% vs. Tampa BayWith the AL pennant still undecided, BBMI gives the Brewers a 65% chance against the Guardians and 52% against the Rays. The biggest differences are in the opposing lineups and how the pitching matchups shift from game to game.Oct 16METHODDivision Series Review: Three of Four Favorites AdvancedThe Dodgers, Brewers and Guardians advanced. Tampa Bay swept our fourth favorite, the Yankees. Across four MLB pick products, BBMI finished the first two rounds 14–3.Oct 11METHODInside a 27-17-2 Stretch: A Tie in Landover, a Missed Extra Point and 6-0 in the MLB PlayoffsTwo BBMI picks won in a 27-27 NFL tie and another pushed on a missed extra point. MLB went 6-0 in the playoffs and college football split 12-12-1. Here are the results by product, the biggest misses and the season record for every product.Oct 15METHODInside a 30-20 Week: A Kneel-Down, a Pair of Failed Two-Point Tries and a Strike-Zone ChallengeFive BBMI picks this week were settled by half a point or half a run, three against us and two for us. Here is every result from the NFL, college football and MLB, and the season record for every product.Oct 5SIMULATIONDivision Series Preview: One Clear FavoriteThe Dodgers are 67% favorites over a Braves club that beat them five times in six tries this season. The other three series are close enough to turn on a start: Yankees 55% as road favorites at the top-seeded Rays, Brewers 55%, Guardians 54%.Oct 3METHODWild Card Review: Three of Four Favorites AdvancedBBMI favored all four hosts. The Braves, Yankees and Padres moved on, while the White Sox swept our co-favorite Astros. Here’s how the round played out.Oct 2
73 published pieces in the desk, newest Oct 27. Premium articles open in full for subscribers; everyone sees the headline numbers.