Research.
What 10,000 nightly simulations see that the box scores don’t — injury what-ifs, park effects, teams outrunning their talent, and honest notes on how the models change.
Grading the NL Central: Milwaukee Has Broken the Curve
BBMI grades all five NL Central teams on season, roster, front office and manager. Milwaukee earns the division’s only A+ – second in all of baseball at a 19th-ranked payroll, while Cincinnati spends almost exactly the same and lands a D.
Browse by series
Division Report Cards
BBMI grades all six MLB divisions — season, roster, front office, and manager — one week before the deadline redraws the rosters underneath them.
MLB · SeriesMLB Power Rankings
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, week over week, with the movement worth explaining.
Research · Series2026 Season Previews
By-the-numbers previews: projected records, the games that decide the season, and exactly what the model can and can't see.
NCAA Baseball · SeriesCollege World Series 2026
Omaha, simulated — the eight-team bracket, the starter-by-starter final, and the graded recap.
MLB · SeriesThe Wrigley Wind Fix
How the wind off Lake Michigan moves run scoring at Wrigley — and how the model learned to price it.
MLB · Series2026 Award Races
MVP and Cy Young at the break — graded on value and earned runs saved, not just the raw numbers.
Latest from the desk
Grading the AL Central: The White Sox Have Become the Responsible Adult
BBMI grades every AL Central team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. The White Sox and Guardians lead on bottom-five payrolls while Detroit's expensive, talented roster sits fourth.
White Sox A- on the 26th payroll · Guardians A- · Tigers D+ with the top talentMLB · Division Report CardsGrading the AL West: Texas Leads Because Someone Eventually Had To
BBMI grades every AL West team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. Texas leads a muddled division; Houston and Seattle have the talent but losing records; the Angels bottom out.
Rangers B lead a muddle · Astros and Mariners: talent, losing records · Angels FMLB · Division Report CardsGrading the NL West: The Dodgers Bought Excellence, Which Beats Buying Failure
BBMI grades every NL West team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. The Dodgers earn an A+ superteam grade; San Francisco pays $232M to sit near the bottom.
Dodgers A+ superteam · Giants D- · Rockies F on baseball's weakest rosterMLB · Division Report CardsGrading the NL East: Atlanta Wins, Washington Confounds, the Mets Invent Luxury Failure
BBMI grades every NL East team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. Atlanta earns an A, Washington overachieves a weak roster, and the Mets spend $376M to become the division's worst team.
Braves A · Nationals overachieve a weak roster · Mets F on a $376M payrollMLB · Division Report CardsGrading the AL East: Tampa Bay Is Doing Rays Things Again
BBMI grades every AL East team on season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. Tampa Bay earns the division's only A+ on baseball's 28th-highest payroll, while Toronto spends nearly three times as much for last place.
Rays A+ on the 28th payroll · Yankees A · Blue Jays D at the 5th-highest spendNCAAB · MethodologyYou asked about the basketball model. Here are the answers, including the ugly one.
Three questions came up over and over after the first live season: was that a one-year fluke, how does the thing actually work, and what on earth happened in March? A six-season walk-forward, a diagnosis we could have ducked and didn't, and a fix we tested before we believed it.
57.1% on 2,017 live picks · 28–28 in the bracket · six seasons re-run · March mispricing cut 54%MLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, Week of July 24: the board at the deadline, and who moved
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score coming out of the break, with nine days of movement since the July 15 board and the changes worth explaining — one week before the deadline redraws the rosters underneath it.
Dodgers 0.858 · White Sox ▲8 · Red Sox 14–1 · Marlins −.025MLB · model findingNine Mets Are at Their Career Floor. Simultaneously.
We pulled the full career record of every player on the Mets’ active roster. Five are having the outright worst season of their careers — including two 11-plus-year veterans — and four more are at their second-worst. Then the expected stats: for seven of the nine, the results are worse than the underlying performance.
5 career-worsts · 7 of 9 below expected · Semien +.040 gapNCAAF · Season PreviewRow the Boat, Again: Minnesota's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Minnesota is coming off 8–5 and a bowl win with almost everyone back — the coach, the quarterback, the star running back. BBMI grades the Gophers 50th nationally, 12th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 7–5 that sits right on the six-win bowl line: about 6.0 expected wins, four true toss-ups, a defense reloading after losing an All-America safety to Oregon, and a fall of three rivalry trophies capped by an Axe game the model calls the closest on the schedule.
#50 nationally · 12th of 18 Big Ten · 7–5 base case · Axe ~53–47 MNNCAAF · Season PreviewReload in Lincoln: Nebraska's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Nebraska is coming off back-to-back bowls for the first time since 2015–16 and a coach locked up through 2032 — then lost quarterback Dylan Raiola to Oregon and All-American back Emmett Johnson to the NFL Draft. BBMI grades the Huskers 37th nationally, 10th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 6–6 (3–6): about 6.2 expected wins, a cupcake non-conference tray, a vicious back half, and a Black Friday trip to Iowa where the model makes them an 8-point underdog.
#37 nationally · 10th of 18 Big Ten · 6–6 base case · Iowa ~34% (8-pt dog)NCAAF · Season PreviewCan the Badgers Climb Off the Floor? Wisconsin's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Wisconsin is coming off a 4–8 collapse, the Air Raid finally buried, and a coach on the hot seat. BBMI has started modeling college football and the Badgers are one of the first teams up: 67th nationally, 17th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 5–7 (3–6) that's softer than the record looks: about 5.5 expected wins, four true toss-ups short of a bowl, and a season-closing Axe game that grades as the closest call on the schedule.
#67 nationally · 17th of 18 Big Ten · 5–7 base case · Axe ~53–47 MNNFL · Season PreviewThe 2026 NFL Season, Simulated 20,000 Times: Standings, Super Bowl Odds, and Award Races
Way-too-early predictions, on the record before a single camp opens: projected standings and Super Bowl odds from 20,000 season simulations built on de-vig market priors and a drive-level Markov engine, award races from a model trained on a decade of actual voting — and exactly how all of it works, including what it can't see.
Rams 15.8% SB · Allen 23% MVP · Garrett three-peat bid · 20,000 simsMLB · Playoff what-ifThe Brewers' Road Through October, With and Without James Wood
A simulated run through Milwaukee's projected 2026 playoff path — a first-round bye, the Braves, the Dodgers wall, and a World Series against the Rays — with the starter in every game and how each series tilts. Then we add James Wood's bat and run it again: a uniform lift in every round that moves the title odds from 21.8% to 28.1%.
#2 NL seed · WS 21.8% → 28.1% with Wood · +0.38 R/GMLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, Week of July 15: the board at the break, and who moved
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score at the All-Star break, with two weeks of movement since the July 1 board and the changes worth explaining.
Dodgers 0.860 · Red Sox ▲7 · Royals −.048 · Athletics 2–13Model accuracy · transparencySixty percent of the time, it loses every time
Half a season inside the BBMISports MLB spreads model. The Full Game run-line picks win almost 61% of the time — and at the prices you actually get, they lose money. A win rate is not a return: here's how the juice eats a winning record, and the disciplined slice (First 5 Innings above the floor + high-conviction Full Game) that returns +13% at real prices.
172–127 · 57.5% win, −0.1% real ROI · disciplined book +13.0%Methodology · park factorsThe wind was worth more than we said: an update to the Wrigley fix
A three-season walk-forward found the Lake Michigan wind moves Wrigley run scoring several times harder than our first correction credited — and confirmed it's the wind doing the work, not the warm afternoon it arrives on.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~5 runs · 2024–2026 walk-forwardAwards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races at the Break — Reading the Real Leaders
BBMI grades the Cy Young on earned runs saved. The model has one runaway AL favorite in Cam Schlittler (61%) and a new NL frontrunner in Jacob Misiorowski (47%) — plus a regression board that separates the real leaders from the ERAs the second half is about to correct.
Schlittler 61% AL · Misiorowski 47% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races at the Break — Value, Not Just Numbers
MVP is value, not just numbers. The model reads the AL as a two-man race between Yordan Alvarez (56.5%) and Nick Kurtz (35.5%) — with Aaron Judge the most underrated bat in the league — while the NL is Shohei Ohtani's near-lock at 95%, a two-way case a great bat can't match. A luck board flags who the second half is about to correct.
Alvarez 56.5% AL · Ohtani 95% NL · 500 simulated seasonsWhat-if · deadlineLet’s Analyze the Latest MLB Trade Rumors: 7/5 Edition
We re-simulated every popular deadline rumor on our new hardware and sorted the board by the only number that matters in July: playoff odds. The three biggest names on the board move it the least, a rental closer to Pittsburgh moves it the most, and one team manages to get worse by buying a good pitcher.
Chapman → PIT +11.9 playoff pts · Skubal → LAD +7.2 WS pts · 21 tradesMLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, Week of July 1: the full board, and who moved
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with real week-over-week movement since June 24 and the changes worth explaining.
Dodgers 0.889 · Yankees −.053 · Blue Jays ▼8 · Marlins ▲6AnalysisChicks Dig the Long Ball. The Brewers Don’t. Both Things Are Fine, Until October.
Milwaukee is fourth in baseball in runs and 27th in home runs. Over six months that’s a feature — a contact-and-speed offense that just keeps scoring. For one month every fall, it’s the exact flaw that keeps sending them home.
4th in runs · 27th in HR · −16% October scoringMethodologyEveryone Is Trying to Predict Sports. Almost Nobody Is Good At It.
The market we're up against is 99.7% calibrated and funded by an industry measured in hundreds of billions. Here's how close our models actually get across four sports, where we fall short, and why we publish every number — including the ones that aren't flattering.
Pinnacle r² 0.997 · MAE vs Vegas across four sportsRankingsReading the BBMI Rankings: what the numbers mean, and who moved this week
Our new methodology ranks teams on banked wins, corrected only for the strength of the schedule they actually played — with roster talent kept as a lens beside it. Here's how the number gets built, and the teams whose week moved it.
BBMI Score = SOS-adjusted wins ÷ 116 · Talent kept as a lensSeries recapArms vs. hot streak, revisited: the hot streak took it
Oklahoma is the national champion, two games to one. The model favored North Carolina's arms at 58.1% — and named, in advance, the exact 42% path the Sooners walked.
OU champions · model had UNC 58.1% · the 42% landedAnalysisThe Brewers pitching machine: how a small-market team manufactures aces
A bottom-third-payroll team has fielded one of baseball's best pitching staffs for the better part of a decade — by taking arms nobody else wanted and unlocking ones nobody else had. The numbers behind the turnarounds.
Burnes 3.12 → 0.38 HR/9 · Misiorowski 104.5 mph · ~$1.5M per winFull-strength what-ifRunning hot, running cold: who's due to regress, and who's due to surge
We re-ran the rest of the season with every injured regular restored, then measured each club's record against what its healthy roster should sustain. The gap is the story — five teams outrunning their talent, five buried by injury and due to climb.
Hot: ATL +.141 · Cold: DET −.109 · full-strength simWhat-ifArms vs. hot streak: why the model likes North Carolina's pitching over Oklahoma's run
The College World Series final, simulated starter-by-starter. North Carolina runs the better arm to the mound every game — its worst projected starter still grades ahead of Oklahoma's best — and the series number firms to 58.1%.
UNC 58.1% / OU 41.9% · best-of-3What-ifWhat a deadline trade would actually do to the Brewers
The two names everyone's linking to Milwaukee — Tarik Skubal and Byron Buxton — run through our game-by-game simulation thousands of times. One's an ace, one's a star bat, and the gap between them only shows up in October.
Skubal +6.4 WS pts · Buxton +5.6 · paired simsWhat-ifWhat losing Aaron Judge actually costs the Yankees
Aaron Judge has not played since May 31. We ran the rest of the season thousands of times with him and thousands more without him, and measured the gap.
About -3 wins · paired 9,000-sim what-ifWhat-ifThe College World Series, simulated 10,000 times
Eight teams in Omaha, one double-elimination bracket, and a model that doesn't care about seeding. Who the simulations actually like to cut down the nets.
Field of 8 · 10,000 simsSimulationWhat 10,000 season simulations say about the NL Central
We simulate the rest of the season every night. In the NL Central that is not a race at the top, it is a coronation: the Brewers win the division in 96 percent of them.
Brewers 96.3% division · 10,000 simsPark factorsWhat the wind off Lake Michigan does to run scoring at Wrigley
At Wrigley the wind off the lake can add or erase the better part of a run before a pitch is thrown — and for a long time the model's run projections couldn't see it.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~1 runPremium articles open in full for subscribers; everyone sees the headline numbers. The featured full-strength what-if links to a full article page.
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