BBMI · RESEARCH
Previews, simulations and model notes
Everything the models learn, written up. Team previews come from the same simulations that drive the rankings; every experiment is reported whether or not it worked.
BBMI MLB Power Rankings, September 11: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, Pittsburgh Jumps Six Spots, and the AL Central Tightens
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with fourteen days of movement since the August 28 board. Milwaukee banked the wins and keeps the top line, Los Angeles owns the Talent column by 90 points and the pennant simulation at 36.9%, and Pittsburgh is the board's largest riser.
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.851
Milwaukee, No. 1 · 91–56 · 26.2% pennant
.664 Dodgers Talent6 Pittsburgh
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8 of 53 pieces, plus the featured oneMETHODCan You Beat Vegas? The September ScoreboardSince December 29 we have posted a model line on every game we cover, logged every pick before tipoff or first pitch, and graded it in public. Installment 1 of a running series. The hypothesis is not that a model beats Vegas on every game; it is that a cohort of games, defined in advance, can be profitable long-term. One live cohort clears the vig under a rule that never moved, a second is positive under a rule finalized in-season, one wins 63% and has not made a dollar, and two more are positive only in walk-forward replays a live season has not yet confirmed.Sep 8PREVIEWDetroit Is the NFC North Favorite: Lions 2026Jared Goff and one of the NFL’s best offenses give Detroit a championship ceiling. A rebuilt offensive line and four games without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph give it an immediate problem. BBMI rates the Lions fourth of 32 at +4.8, projects 11.5–5.5 with an 86% playoff chance, and makes them 60% to win the division.Aug 31ANALYSISBBMI MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee Keeps WinningAll 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with nine days of movement since the August 19 board. The Braves swept the best roster in baseball, Cleveland climbed eight spots on the nineteenth-rated roster, and the three clubs in the tightest division in the sport have five games left against each other.Aug 28PREVIEWWhy Plus-22 Is Unlikely to Repeat: Chicago 2026Chicago won the NFC North at 11–6 behind the best turnover margin in football, and two defenders who accounted for 15 of those 33 takeaways are gone. Pro Football Reference put the Bears at 9.1 expected wins; they won 11. BBMI rates Chicago +1.6, 15th of 32, and projects 9.3–7.7 with a 47% playoff chance — first team out of the projected NFC field.Aug 27SIMULATIONYankees vs. Rays: An October SeriesTampa Bay leads the American League East and is likely to host. BBMI has the clubs meeting in 41% of simulated postseasons, and in the five-game series it considers likeliest, New York wins 57.1% of the time — without Aaron Judge — because the Rays’ third and fourth starters rate near the bottom of the league.Aug 26PREVIEWA $1.3 Million Quarterback: Minnesota 2026Minnesota rated 6th in defensive EPA and 22nd on offense in 2025, started three quarterbacks, and missed the playoffs by the width of a Green Bay tie. BBMI projects 8.4-8.6 in 2026, last in a division it likes all three rivals in, with Kyler Murray signed for the veteran minimum to make the passing game functional enough for the defense to matter.Aug 24PREVIEWThe Seven Seed, Three Years Running: Green Bay 2026Green Bay opens 2026 without Micah Parsons, after an offseason that shipped out 108 starts and left no first-round pick to replace them. BBMI rates the Packers +2.8 per game, 12th of 32, and projects 9.7–7.3 with a 55% playoff chance and 17% to win the NFC North — behind Detroit at 60%. The number that matters most is the spread around it: the middle 80% of simulated seasons runs from 7 to 12 wins.Aug 23PREVIEWEleven Gone to the NFL: Ohio State 2026Ohio State sent eleven players to the NFL, four of them in the top eleven picks, and lost eight defensive starters. BBMI still grades the Buckeyes 1st nationally at +37.6 and 1st of 18 in the Big Ten, with the No. 1 defense and No. 2 offense by SP+ input — the exact mirror of Oregon, 1.7 neutral-field points behind. They are favored in all twelve games, and the projection is still 10–2: a slate this hard costs even the No. 1 team a game or two.Aug 20
54 published pieces in the desk, newest Sep 11. Premium articles open in full for subscribers; everyone sees the headline numbers.