Research.
What 10,000 nightly simulations see that the box scores don’t — injury what-ifs, park effects, teams outrunning their talent, and honest notes on how the models change.
What losing Aaron Judge actually costs the Yankees
Aaron Judge has not played since May 31. We re-ran the rest of the season 9,000 times — with Judge and without — and measured the gap. About three wins, and a real shave off the division odds. A seeding cost, not a collapse.
Latest from the desk
Filterable by category in productionThe College World Series, simulated 10,000 times
Eight teams in Omaha, one double-elimination bracket, and a model that doesn't care about seeding. Who the simulations actually like to cut down the nets.
Field of 8 · 10,000 simsSimulationWhat 10,000 season simulations say about the NL Central
We simulate the rest of the season every night. In the NL Central that is not a race at the top, it is a coronation: the Brewers win the division in 96 percent of them.
Brewers 96.3% division · 10,000 simsPark factorsWhat the wind off Lake Michigan does to run scoring at Wrigley
At Wrigley the wind off the lake can add or erase the better part of a run before a pitch is thrown — and for a long time the model's run projections couldn't see it.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~1 runPremium articles open in full for subscribers; everyone sees the headline numbers. The featured Aaron Judge what-if links to a full article page.