Team Pages/Pac-12/Boise State
Boise State logo
PAC-12 • 2026 SEASON

Boise State

Record 6-1vs line 1–5 ATSLast W 31–10 at Washington StateNext Oct 31 vs Texas State
#19
BBMI rank
+26.2
Rating
9.3–1.7
Proj record
12%
Make CFP
Last updated: (data published)
Texas State logo
Texas State
#82 • +19.8 • Pac-12
SAT OCT 31 • 9:00 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Boise State
#19 • +26.2 • home
Boise State logo
—
Model line
-10.5
Market line
—
Edge
72%
Outright win probability
Boise State 72%Texas State 28%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 5
Oregon logoat Oregon
L 27–34#221%
Sep 12
Memphis logovs Memphis
W 38–20#4424–3064%
Sep 19
South Dakota logovs South Dakota
W 38–24
Sep 26
Western Michigan logoat Western Michigan
W 32–7#7024–2663%
Oct 3
Utah State logovs Utah State
W 37–18#12028–1998%
Oct 10
Fresno State logoat Fresno State
W 38–31#7523–2354%
Oct 24
Washington State logoat Washington State
W 31–10#13031–1784%
Oct 31
Texas State logovs Texas State
Sat 9:00 PM#8272%
Nov 7
Colorado State logoat Colorado State
Sat 5:00 PM#11186%
Nov 14
Oregon State logovs Oregon State
Sat#4277%†
Nov 21
San Diego State logovs San Diego State
Sat#9897%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#20#30#40#50
#19
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). The rank held, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Pac-1282%
Make the 12-team field12%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal1%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
9.3
7891011
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 10 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 8 to 10. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)+7.7#18
Defense (pts vs avg)-2.3#51
Yards per play margin+2.31#19
Turnover margin+0.43#29
Strength of schedule+0.1#58

BBMI picks on Boise State

2026 • ATS
0–1
Picks on Boise State
1–4
Picks against
-4.1u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.