BBMI Rank · #86 of 136
Michigan State
Record 4-8Big TenPower rating 16.3
Quality wins
-11.6
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #71SP+ Off
26.6
71st
YPP diff
+0.78
57th
TO margin
-0.36
74th
Defense
SP+ #81SP+ Def
28.7
81st
Q-Wins
-11.6
vs top 25
Sp. teams
-1.3
107th
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | 14 | N Maryland#97 | W 38–28 | Michigan State -1.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 22 | 13 | @ Iowa#18 | L 17–20 | Michigan State +15.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 15 | 12 | vs Penn State#38 | L 10–28 | Michigan State +10.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 1 | 10 | @ Minnesota#63 | L 20–23 | Michigan State +15.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 25 | 9 | vs Michigan#29 | L 20–31 | Michigan State +10.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 18 | 8 | @ Indiana#1 | L 13–38 | Michigan State +40.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 11 | 7 | vs UCLA#118 | L 13–38 | Michigan State -6.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 4 | 6 | @ Nebraska#68 | L 27–38 | Michigan State +13.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 21 | 4 | @ USC#13 | L 31–45 | Michigan State +27.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 13 | 3 | vs YSP Youngstown State Penguins | W 41–24 | No line | — |
| Sep 6 | 2 | vs Boston College#120 | W 42–40 | Michigan State -6.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Aug 29 | 1 | vs Western Michigan#49 | W 23–6 | Michigan State +9.5 | ✓ Covered |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.