Team Pages/Big Ten/Michigan State
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BIG TEN • 2026 SEASON

Michigan State

Record 2-6vs line 5–3 ATSLast L 10–28 at UCLANext Nov 7 at Michigan
#103
BBMI rank
+13.5
Rating
3.1–8.9
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

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Last updated: (data published)
Michigan State logo
Michigan State
#103 • +13.5 • Big Ten
SAT NOV 7 • 11:00 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Michigan
#48 • +22.3 • home
Michigan logo
—
Model line
+14.0
Market line
—
Edge
8%
Outright win probability
Michigan State 8%Michigan 92%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 4
Toledo logovs Toledo
W 30–20#6692%
Sep 12
Eastern Michigan logovs Eastern Michigan
W 35–7#11528–2598%
Sep 19
Notre Dame logoat Notre Dame
L 10–27#620–281%
Sep 26
Nebraska logovs Nebraska
L 13–31#2419–2826%
Oct 3
Wisconsin logoat Wisconsin
L 3–31#3119–2211%
Oct 10
Illinois logovs Illinois
L 37–38#5221–2441%
Oct 17
Northwestern logovs Northwestern
L 21–24#1818–2613%
Oct 24
UCLA logoat UCLA
L 10–28#514–339%
Nov 7
Michigan logoat Michigan
Sat 11:00 PM#488%
Nov 14
Washington logovs Washington
Sat#6232%†
Nov 20
Oregon logovs Oregon
Fri#2215%†
Nov 28
Rutgers logoat Rutgers
Sat#11757%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#60#70#80#90#100
#103
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Down 2 to #103, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Big Ten0%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
3.1
12345
Middle half of the simulations: 3 to 4 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 2 to 4. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)-3.4#99
Defense (pts vs avg)+0.4#69
Yards per play margin-0.17#105
Turnover margin-1.36#128
Strength of schedule0.0#69

BBMI picks on Michigan State

2026 • ATS
2–0
Picks on Michigan State
3–3
Picks against
+1.5u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 8 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.