Team Pages/Big Ten/Oregon
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BIG TEN • 2026 SEASON

Oregon

Record 4-3vs line 3–3 ATSLast L 10–21 at IllinoisNext Oct 31 vs Northwestern
#22
BBMI rank
+25.1
Rating
6.9–5.1
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

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Last updated: (data published)
Northwestern logo
Northwestern
#18 • +27.8 • Big Ten
SAT OCT 31 • 2:30 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Oregon
#22 • +25.1 • home
Oregon logo
—
Model line
-3.5
Market line
—
Edge
Premium
Outright win probability

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 5
Boise State logovs Boise State
W 34–27#1999%
Sep 12
Oklahoma State logoat Oklahoma State
L 31–39#2631–2386%
Sep 18
Portland State logovs Portland State
W 84–0
Sep 26
USC logoat USC
W 41–27#3334–3129%
Oct 10
UCLA logovs UCLA
L 15–17#531–3275%
Oct 17
Nebraska logovs Nebraska
W 17–14#2427–2955%
Oct 24
Illinois logoat Illinois
L 10–21#5234–2084%
Oct 31
Northwestern logovs Northwestern
Sat 2:30 PM#18Premium
Nov 7
Ohio State logoat Ohio State
Sat 2:30 PM#34%
Nov 14
Michigan logovs Michigan
Sat#4875%†
Nov 20
Michigan State logoat Michigan State
Fri#10385%†
Nov 28
Washington logovs Washington
Sat#6281%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#1#5#10#15#20
#22
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). The rank held, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Big Ten0%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
6.9
456789
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 8 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 5 to 8. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)+6.7#28
Defense (pts vs avg)-9.4#12
Yards per play margin+0.88#67
Turnover margin-1.51#131
Strength of schedule+1.1#15

BBMI picks on Oregon

2026 • ATS
0–2
Picks on Oregon
3–1
Picks against
-0.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.

From the Research Desk

All research →
NCAAF · Season Preview

Everything But the Trophy: Oregon's 2026 Season, by the Numbers

Two straight 13-win seasons, two straight Playoff exits, and twice in 2025 the same team standing in the way. BBMI grades Oregon 2nd nationally at +35.9 and 2nd of 18 in the Big Ten, 1.7 neutral-field points behind Ohio State, with the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense by SP+ input and a quarterback who turned down the NFL. The projection is 10–2, and exactly one rated game on the schedule makes the Ducks an underdog: November 7 in Columbus.

#2 nationally · +35.9 · 2nd of 18 Big Ten · 10–2 projected · 38% at Ohio StateAug 18 · 11 min
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.