Team Pages/FBS Independents/Notre Dame
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FBS INDEPENDENTS • 2026 SEASON

Notre Dame

Record 6-1vs line 3–4 ATSLast L 24–28 at BYUNext Oct 31 at Navy
#6
BBMI rank
+33.5
Rating
10.4–1.6
Proj record
93%
Make CFP

Next game

Game Picks →
Last updated: (data published)
Notre Dame logo
Notre Dame
#6 • +33.5 • FBS Independents
SAT OCT 31 • 11:00 AM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Navy
#105 • +16.5 • neutral
Navy logo
—
Model line
-30.5
Market line
—
Edge
98%
Outright win probability
Notre Dame 98%Navy 2%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 6
Wisconsin logovs Wisconsin
W 41–13#3198%
Sep 12
Rice logovs Rice
W 52–0#12924–24100%
Sep 19
Michigan State logovs Michigan State
W 27–10#10328–2099%
Sep 26
Purdue logoat Purdue
W 49–10#5333–2398%
Oct 3
North Carolina logoat North Carolina
W 37–26#4623–1595%
Oct 10
Stanford logovs Stanford
W 58–7#10234–16100%
Oct 17
BYU logoat BYU
L 24–28#924–2050%
Oct 31
Navy logovs Navy
Sat 11:00 AM#10598%
Nov 7
Miami (FL) logovs Miami (FL)
Sat 6:30 PM#155%
Nov 14
Boston College logovs Boston College
Sat#5998%†
Nov 21
SMU logovs SMU
Sat#2191%†
Nov 28
Syracuse logoat Syracuse
Sat#8097%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#2#4#6#8#10
#6
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). The rank held, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win FBS Independents0%
Make the 12-team field93%
Top-4 seed (bye)43%
Reach the semifinal46%
Win the national title13%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
10.4
89101112
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 9 to 11. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)+13.0#3
Defense (pts vs avg)-11.2#8
Yards per play margin+2.97#6
Turnover margin+1.49#2
Strength of schedule+0.5#47

BBMI picks on Notre Dame

2026 • ATS
2–2
Picks on Notre Dame
1–2
Picks against
-1.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.