BBMI Rank · #48 of 136
Toledo
Record 8-5Mid-AmericanPower rating 21.8
Quality wins
-2.2
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #76SP+ Off
25.8
76th
YPP diff
+3.09
4th
TO margin
-0.21
61st
Defense
SP+ #21SP+ Def
18.5
21st
Q-Wins
-2.2
vs top 25
Sp. teams
-1.3
104th
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23 | 1 | N Louisville#15 | L 22–27 | Toledo +6.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 29 | 14 | @ Central Michigan#82 | W 21–3 | Toledo -1.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 22 | 13 | vs Ball State#124 | W 38–9 | Toledo -30.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 13 | 12 | @ Miami (OH)#65 | W 24–3 | Toledo -0.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 6 | 11 | vs Northern Illinois#115 | W 42–3 | Toledo -27.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 25 | 9 | @ Washington State#58 | L 7–28 | Toledo +4.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 18 | 8 | vs Kent State#116 | W 45–10 | Toledo -28.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 11 | 7 | @ Bowling Green#93 | L 23–28 | Toledo -11.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Sep 27 | 5 | vs Akron#89 | W 45–3 | Toledo -22.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 20 | 4 | @ Western Michigan#49 | L 13–14 | Toledo +8.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 13 | 3 | vs MSB Morgan State Bears | W 60–0 | No line | — |
| Sep 6 | 2 | vs Western Kentucky#61 | W 45–21 | Toledo -14.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Aug 30 | 1 | @ Kentucky#83 | L 16–24 | Toledo +2.5 | ✗ Lost |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.