Team Pages/Mid-American/Toledo
Toledo logo
MID-AMERICAN • 2026 SEASON

Toledo

Record 6-2vs line 2–5 ATSLast W 45–38 vs Western MichiganNext Nov 4 at Sacramento State
#66
BBMI rank
+20.9
Rating
9.2–2.8
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

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Last updated: (data published)
Toledo logo
Toledo
#66 • +20.9 • Mid-American
WED NOV 4 • 6:00 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Sacramento State
#136 • +6.0 • home
Sacramento State logo
—
Model line
—
Market line
—
Edge
98%
Outright win probability
Toledo 98%Sacramento State 2%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 4
Michigan State logoat Michigan State
L 20–30#1038%
Sep 12
Central Connecticut logovs Central Connecticut
W 63–10
Sep 19
Temple logovs Temple
W 49–48#11225–1971%
Sep 26
San Diego State logovs San Diego State
W 41–16#9832–2752%
Oct 3
Ball State logoat Ball State
W 39–24#11934–2198%
Oct 10
Buffalo logovs Buffalo
L 8–23#9037–2598%
Oct 17
Eastern Michigan logoat Eastern Michigan
W 34–14#11528–2367%
Oct 24
Western Michigan logovs Western Michigan
W 45–38#7029–1976%
Nov 4
Sacramento State logoat Sacramento State
Wed 6:00 PM#13698%
Nov 11
Massachusetts logovs Massachusetts
Wed#11385%†
Nov 20
Bowling Green logovs Bowling Green
Fri#13391%†
Nov 27
Ohio logoat Ohio
Fri#6449%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#70#80#90#100
#66
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Up 1 to #66, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Mid-American40%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
9.2
7891011
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 10 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 8 to 10. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)+1.7#58
Defense (pts vs avg)-0.1#65
Yards per play margin+2.54#13
Turnover margin-0.06#56
Strength of schedule-1.0#127

BBMI picks on Toledo

2026 • ATS
1–3
Picks on Toledo
1–2
Picks against
-3.2u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.