BBMI Rank · #111 of 138
Toledo
Record 0-0MACPower rating 12.7
Quality wins
0.0
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #121SP+ Off
16.7
121st
YPP diff
0.00
111th
TO margin
0.00
111th
Defense
SP+ #84SP+ Def
27.9
84th
Q-Wins
0.0
vs top 25
Sp. teams
-0.4
108th
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | BBMI line | BBMI pick | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | 1 | @ Michigan State#66 | +14 | Toledo +14 | 23% |
| Sep 12 | 2 | vs Central Connecticut | — | No line | — |
| Sep 19 | 3 | vs Temple#100 | +1 | Toledo +1 | 48% |
| Sep 26 | 4 | vs San Diego State#72 | +8 | Toledo +8 | 33% |
| Oct 3 | 5 | @ Ball State#134 | -11.5 | Toledo -11.5 | 74% |
| Oct 10 | 6 | vs Buffalo#110 | -2.5 | Toledo -2.5 | 55% |
| Oct 17 | 7 | @ Eastern Michigan#121 | -1.5 | Toledo -1.5 | 53% |
| Oct 24 | 8 | vs Western Michigan#98 | +2.5 | Toledo +2.5 | 45% |
| Nov 4 | 10 | @ Sacramento State#130 | -9 | Toledo -9 | 69% |
| Nov 11 | 11 | vs Massachusetts#137 | -21.5 | Toledo -21.5 | 88% |
| Nov 20 | 12 | vs Bowling Green#117 | -4 | Toledo -4 | 58% |
| Nov 27 | 13 | @ Ohio#119 | 0 | Toledo 0 | 50% |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.