BBMI Rank · #27 of 136
NC State
Record 8-5ACCPower rating 22.9
Quality wins
-0.8
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #45SP+ Off
31.4
45th
YPP diff
+0.10
86th
TO margin
+0.91
9th
Defense
SP+ #64SP+ Def
25.5
64th
Q-Wins
-0.8
vs top 25
Sp. teams
-1.2
102nd
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19 | 1 | N Memphis#60 | W 31–7 | NC State -4.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 30 | 14 | vs North Carolina#111 | W 42–19 | NC State -25.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 22 | 13 | vs Florida State#47 | W 21–11 | NC State -11.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 15 | 12 | @ Miami (FL)#7 | L 7–41 | NC State +16.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 1 | 10 | vs Georgia Tech#43 | W 48–36 | NC State -10.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 25 | 9 | @ Pittsburgh#50 | L 34–53 | NC State -0.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 11 | 7 | @ Notre Dame#12 | L 7–36 | NC State +10.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 4 | 6 | vs CFC Campbell Fighting Camels | W 56–10 | No line | — |
| Sep 27 | 5 | vs Virginia Tech#121 | L 21–23 | NC State -28.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Sep 20 | 4 | @ Duke#25 | L 33–45 | NC State -2.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Sep 11 | 3 | @ Wake Forest#55 | W 34–24 | NC State +0.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 6 | 2 | vs Virginia#16 | W 35–31 | NC State -4.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Aug 28 | 1 | vs East Carolina#30 | W 24–17 | NC State -10.5 | ✗ Lost |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.