Team Pages/ACC/North Carolina
North Carolina logo
ACC • 2026 SEASON

North Carolina

Record 4-3vs line 2–4 ATSLast L 30–31 vs SyracuseNext Oct 31 vs Miami (FL)
#46
BBMI rank
+19.6
Rating
5.7–6.3
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

Next game

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Last updated: (data published)
Miami (FL) logo
Miami (FL)
#1 • +34.9 • ACC
SAT OCT 31 • 6:30 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
North Carolina
#46 • +19.6 • home
North Carolina logo
—
Model line
+14.0
Market line
—
Edge
8%
Outright win probability
North Carolina 8%Miami (FL) 92%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Aug 29
TCU logovs TCU
W 15–10#6719–2527%
Sep 12
East Tennessee State logovs East Tennessee State
W 35–3
Sep 19
Clemson logoat Clemson
L 20–28#6524–1427%
Oct 3
Notre Dame logovs Notre Dame
L 26–37#615–235%
Oct 10
Pittsburgh logoat Pittsburgh
W 21–17#5019–266%
Oct 17
Duke logoat Duke
W 24–20#4318–2324%
Oct 24
Syracuse logovs Syracuse
L 30–31#8031–1981%
Oct 31
Miami (FL) logovs Miami (FL)
Sat 6:30 PM#18%
Nov 7
Connecticut logoat Connecticut
Sat 11:00 AM#7851%
Nov 14
Louisville logovs Louisville
Sat#4023%†
Nov 21
Virginia logoat Virginia
Sat#8325%†
Nov 28
NC State logovs NC State
Sat#8863%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#40#50#60
#46
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Down 2 to #46, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win ACC0%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
5.7
345678
Middle half of the simulations: 5 to 6 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 4 to 7. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)-0.2#75
Defense (pts vs avg)-3.4#42
Yards per play margin+1.17#50
Turnover margin-1.12#118
Strength of schedule+0.8#29

BBMI picks on North Carolina

2026 • ATS
1–1
Picks on North Carolina
1–3
Picks against
-2.2u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.