Team Pages/Pac-12/Texas State
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PAC-12 • 2026 SEASON

Texas State

Record 4-3vs line 3–3 ATSLast W 20–17 vs Utah StateNext Oct 31 at Boise State
#82
BBMI rank
+19.8
Rating
6.3–4.7
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

Next game

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Last updated: (data published)
Texas State logo
Texas State
#82 • +19.8 • Pac-12
SAT OCT 31 • 9:00 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Boise State
#19 • +26.2 • home
Boise State logo
—
Model line
+10.5
Market line
—
Edge
28%
Outright win probability
Texas State 28%Boise State 72%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 5
Texas logoat Texas
L 7–59#122%
Sep 12
UTSA logovs UTSA
L 26–31#2516–4761%
Sep 19
North Texas logovs North Texas
W 49–35#4925–3772%
Sep 26
Incarnate Word logovs Incarnate Word
W 63–10
Oct 3
San Diego State logoat San Diego State
L 29–31#9834–3149%
Oct 15
Colorado State logovs Colorado State
W 66–27#11137–3685%
Oct 24
Utah State logovs Utah State
W 20–17#12039–2091%
Oct 31
Boise State logoat Boise State
Sat 9:00 PM#1928%
Nov 7
Oregon State logoat Oregon State
Sat 9:30 PM#4229%
Nov 14
Fresno State logovs Fresno State
Sat#7575%†
Nov 21
Washington State logovs Washington State
Sat#13099%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#80#90#100
#82
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Up 1 to #82, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Pac-121%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
6.3
456789
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 7 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 5 to 8. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)+7.0#25
Defense (pts vs avg)+5.7#109
Yards per play margin+0.94#64
Turnover margin-0.79#103
Strength of schedule+0.1#66

BBMI picks on Texas State

2026 • ATS
2–3
Picks on Texas State
1–0
Picks against
-0.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.