BBMI Rank · #89 of 138
Texas State
Record 0-0Pac-12Power rating 16.6
Quality wins
0.0
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #26SP+ Off
31.8
26th
YPP diff
0.00
89th
TO margin
0.00
89th
Defense
SP+ #129SP+ Def
37.8
129th
Q-Wins
0.0
vs top 25
Sp. teams
+0.1
68th
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | BBMI line | BBMI pick | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5 | 1 | @ Texas#6 | +31.5 | Texas State +31.5 | 5% |
| Sep 12 | 2 | vs U UTSA#74 | +2.5 | Texas State +2.5 | 45% |
| Sep 19 | 3 | vs North Texas#108 | -8 | Texas State -8 | 66% |
| Sep 26 | 4 | vs Incarnate Word | — | No line | — |
| Oct 3 | 5 | @ San Diego State#72 | +6.5 | Texas State +6.5 | 36% |
| Oct 15 | 7 | vs Colorado State#102 | -4.5 | Texas State -4.5 | 59% |
| Oct 24 | 8 | vs Utah State#97 | -4 | Texas State -4 | 58% |
| Oct 31 | 9 | @ Boise State#39 | +14.5 | Texas State +14.5 | 22% |
| Nov 7 | 10 | @ Oregon State#94 | +1.5 | Texas State +1.5 | 47% |
| Nov 14 | 11 | vs Fresno State#82 | +1.5 | Texas State +1.5 | 47% |
| Nov 21 | 12 | vs Washington State#88 | -1.5 | Texas State -1.5 | 53% |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.