BBMI Rank · #54 of 136
Texas State
Record 7-6Sun BeltPower rating 21.2
Quality wins
-4.1
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #15SP+ Off
36.6
15th
YPP diff
+1.63
24th
TO margin
+0.04
42nd
Defense
SP+ #117SP+ Def
34.6
117th
Q-Wins
-4.1
vs top 25
Sp. teams
+0.4
61st
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 | 1 | N Rice#129 | W 41–10 | Texas State -20.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 29 | 14 | vs South Alabama#96 | W 49–26 | Texas State -12.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 22 | 13 | vs LM Louisiana Monroe#131 | W 31–14 | Texas State -23.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 15 | 12 | @ Southern Miss#81 | W 41–14 | Texas State -8.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 8 | 11 | @ Louisiana#92 | L 39–42 | Texas State -7.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 29 | 10 | vs James Madison#37 | L 20–52 | Texas State -0.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 18 | 8 | @ Marshall#80 | L 37–40 | Texas State -2.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 12 | 7 | vs Troy#90 | L 41–48 | Texas State -11.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 4 | 6 | @ Arkansas State#100 | L 30–31 | Texas State -5.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Sep 21 | 4 | vs NC Nicholls Colonels | W 35–3 | No line | — |
| Sep 14 | 3 | @ Arizona State#69 | L 15–34 | Texas State -1.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Sep 6 | 2 | @ U UTSA#33 | W 43–36 | Texas State +15.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Aug 31 | 1 | vs Eastern Michigan#104 | W 52–27 | Texas State -13.5 | ✓ Covered |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.