BBMI Rank · #25 of 136
Duke
Record 9-5ACCPower rating 23.9
Quality wins
-3.3
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #19SP+ Off
34.8
19th
YPP diff
+0.72
60th
TO margin
+0.92
8th
Defense
SP+ #86SP+ Def
29.2
86th
Q-Wins
-3.3
vs top 25
Sp. teams
+1.1
34th
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | 1 | N Arizona State#69 | W 42–39 | Duke -8.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Dec 7 | 15 | N Virginia#16 | W 27–20 | Duke +2.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 29 | 14 | vs Wake Forest#55 | W 49–32 | Duke -0.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 22 | 13 | @ North Carolina#111 | W 32–25 | Duke -18.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 15 | 12 | vsVirginia#16 | L 17–34 | Duke +6.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 8 | 11 | @ C Connecticut#32 | L 34–37 | Duke +5.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 1 | 10 | @ Clemson#28 | W 46–45 | Duke -8.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 18 | 8 | vs Georgia Tech#43 | L 18–27 | Duke +0.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Oct 5 | 6 | @ California#66 | W 45–21 | Duke -4.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 27 | 5 | @ Syracuse#132 | W 38–3 | Duke -27.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 20 | 4 | vs NC State#27 | W 45–33 | Duke +2.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 14 | 3 | @ Tulane#22 | L 27–34 | Duke +7.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 6 | 2 | vs Illinois#14 | L 19–45 | Duke +7.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Aug 28 | 1 | vs EP Elon Phoenix | W 45–17 | No line | — |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.