Team Pages/Big Ten/Michigan
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BIG TEN • 2026 SEASON

Michigan

Record 4-3vs line 3–4 ATSLast L 6–13 vs IndianaNext Oct 31 at Rutgers
#48
BBMI rank
+22.3
Rating
6.3–5.7
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

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Last updated: (data published)
Michigan logo
Michigan
#48 • +22.3 • Big Ten
SAT OCT 31 • 11:30 AM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Rutgers
#117 • +11.7 • home
Rutgers logo
—
Model line
-14.5
Market line
—
Edge
86%
Outright win probability
Michigan 86%Rutgers 14%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 5
Western Michigan logovs Western Michigan
W 13–12#7099%
Sep 12
Oklahoma logovs Oklahoma
W 17–10#3410–2453%
Sep 19
UTEP logovs UTEP
W 52–17#13418–1699%
Sep 26
Iowa logovs Iowa
L 19–20#2916–2252%
Oct 3
Minnesota logoat Minnesota
L 14–20#4719–2166%
Oct 17
Penn State logovs Penn State
W 21–18#7318–1980%
Oct 24
Indiana logovs Indiana
L 6–13#214–2229%
Oct 31
Rutgers logoat Rutgers
Sat 11:30 AM#11786%
Nov 7
Michigan State logovs Michigan State
Sat 11:00 PM#10392%
Nov 14
Oregon logoat Oregon
Sat#2225%†
Nov 21
UCLA logovs UCLA
Sat#527%†
Nov 28
Ohio State logoat Ohio State
Sat#32%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#20#30#40#50
#48
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Down 2 to #48, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Big Ten0%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
6.3
456789
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 7 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 5 to 8. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)-2.1#86
Defense (pts vs avg)-13.2#3
Yards per play margin+2.14#24
Turnover margin-1.14#120
Strength of schedule+0.8#28

BBMI picks on Michigan

2026 • ATS
1–2
Picks on Michigan
2–2
Picks against
-1.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.

From the Research Desk

All research →
NCAAF · Season Preview

New Sideline, Same Franchise QB: Michigan's 2026 Season, by the Numbers

Sherrone Moore is out, Kyle Whittingham is in, and Bryce Underwood is back for year two. BBMI grades Michigan 17th nationally, 6th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 8–4 — about 7.3 expected wins — on a schedule with no easy stretch: Oklahoma, Penn State, at Oregon, and a November trip to Columbus where the model makes the Wolverines a 17% underdog.

#17 nationally · 6th of 18 Big Ten · 8–4 base case · The Game ~17%Aug 8 · 11 min
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.