
CONFERENCE USA • 2026 SEASON
Liberty
#38
BBMI rank
+22.6
Rating
10.5–1.5
Proj record
8%
Make CFP
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated: (data published)
FIU
SAT OCT 31 • 2:30 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Liberty
—
Model line
-14.0
Market line
—
Edge
89%
Outright win probability
Liberty 89%FIU 11%
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim afterLast updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 5
at James MadisonL 13–20#3024%
Sep 12
vs Gardner-WebbW 24–23
Sep 19
vs Ball StateW 51–15#11925–2297%
Sep 24
at Coastal CarolinaW 34–17#11823–2265%
Oct 2
at DelawareW 30–14#10726–2185%
Oct 8
vs Sam Houston StateW 35–3#13726–2398%
Oct 22
at Kennesaw StateW 34–6#12227–1679%
Oct 31
vs FIUSat 2:30 PM#10989%
Nov 7
at New Mexico StateSat 7:00 PM#11486%
Nov 14
vs Middle TennesseeSat#10195%†
Nov 21
vs Western KentuckySat#11694%†
Nov 28
at Missouri StateSat#12783%†
Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.
Ranking over time
2026 season · place of 138#40#60#80
#38
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). The rank held, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win Conference USA82%
Make the 12-team field8%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
89101112
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 9 to 11. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense (pts vs avg)+2.0#56
Defense (pts vs avg)-4.9#34
Yards per play margin+2.52#14
Turnover margin+0.66#12
Strength of schedule-1.0#124
BBMI picks on Liberty
2026 • ATS5–0
Picks on Liberty
1–0
Picks against
+5.5u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.