Team Pages/Sun Belt/Arkansas State
Arkansas State logo
SUN BELT • 2026 SEASON

Arkansas State

Record 4-4vs line 4–3 ATSLast W 38–32 vs Georgia StateNext Nov 7 vs Louisiana Monroe
#92
BBMI rank
+17.0
Rating
6.5–5.5
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

Next game

Game Picks →
Last updated: (data published)
Louisiana Monroe logo
Louisiana Monroe
#131 • +7.2 • Sun Belt
SAT NOV 7 • 2:00 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Arkansas State
#92 • +17.0 • home
Arkansas State logo
—
Model line
—
Market line
—
Edge
92%
Outright win probability
Arkansas State 92%Louisiana Monroe 8%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 5
Memphis logoat Memphis
L 24–42#448%
Sep 12
West Georgia logovs West Georgia
W 52–7
Sep 19
TCU logoat TCU
L 7–31#6723–273%
Sep 26
Kennesaw State logovs Kennesaw State
W 17–14#12223–2381%
Oct 3
Louisiana logoat Louisiana
L 20–23#7420–2420%
Oct 8
South Alabama logovs South Alabama
L 49–56#9425–2669%
Oct 17
Southern Miss logoat Southern Miss
W 23–13#12629–2678%
Oct 24
Georgia State logovs Georgia State
W 38–32#9728–2460%
Nov 7
Louisiana Monroe logovs Louisiana Monroe
Sat 2:00 PM#13192%
Nov 14
Coastal Carolina logoat Coastal Carolina
Sat#11860%†
Nov 21
Louisiana Tech logoat Louisiana Tech
Sat#5825%†
Nov 28
Troy logovs Troy
Sat#12475%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#90#95#100#105#110
#92
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Up 1 to #92, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Sun Belt0%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
456789
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 7 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 5 to 8. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)-1.1#82
Defense (pts vs avg)+6.3#113
Yards per play margin-0.07#101
Turnover margin+0.57#19
Strength of schedule-1.1#129

BBMI picks on Arkansas State

2026 • ATS
2–2
Picks on Arkansas State
2–1
Picks against
+0.6u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.