BBMI Rank · #100 of 136
Arkansas State
Record 7-6Sun BeltPower rating 14.8
Quality wins
-2.6
vs top 25
Offense
SP+ #93SP+ Off
24.4
93rd
YPP diff
-0.46
102nd
TO margin
-0.35
73rd
Defense
SP+ #111SP+ Def
33.5
111th
Q-Wins
-2.6
vs top 25
Sp. teams
+0.3
63rd
Opponent-adjusted SP+ and yards-per-play differential. Ranks are out of 136 FBS teams; green/red flag values well above or below average. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Schedule & BBMI picks
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Final | BBMI pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19 | 1 | N Missouri State#98 | W 34–28 | Arkansas State +0.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Nov 29 | 14 | @ ASM App State Mountaineers | W 30–29 | No line | — |
| Nov 21 | 13 | vs Louisiana#92 | L 30–34 | Arkansas State -4.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 8 | 11 | vs Southern Miss#81 | L 21–27 | Arkansas State -2.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Nov 2 | 10 | @ Troy#90 | W 23–10 | Arkansas State +0.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 25 | 9 | vs Georgia Southern#102 | W 34–24 | Arkansas State -5.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 14 | 8 | @ South Alabama#96 | W 15–14 | Arkansas State +2.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Oct 4 | 6 | vs Texas State#54 | W 31–30 | Arkansas State +5.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 27 | 5 | @ LM Louisiana Monroe#131 | L 16–28 | Arkansas State -5.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Sep 20 | 4 | @ Kennesaw State#76 | L 21–28 | Arkansas State +11.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 13 | 3 | vs Iowa State#17 | L 16–24 | Arkansas State +12.5 | ✓ Covered |
| Sep 6 | 2 | @ Arkansas#85 | L 14–56 | Arkansas State +1.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Aug 30 | 1 | vs SMS Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | W 42–24 | No line | — |
How these ratings are built
BBMI football ratings use opponent-adjusted efficiency — every play weighted by the quality of the opponent — plus quality wins and schedule strength. The power rating is the projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, validated walk-forward across two independent seasons.
The schedule’s spreads and picks are the same outputs on the weekly picks page — filtered to one team. Picks are against the spread (totals are display-only), freeze at kickoff, and grade against the final score.