Team Pages/Pac-12/Fresno State
Fresno State logo
PAC-12 • 2026 SEASON

Fresno State

Record 4-3vs line 5–1 ATSLast L 23–26 at San Diego StateNext Oct 31 vs Oregon State
#75
BBMI rank
+20.1
Rating
6.3–4.7
Proj record
0%
Make CFP

Next game

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Last updated: (data published)
Oregon State logo
Oregon State
#42 • +22.6 • Pac-12
SAT OCT 31 • 10:00 PM CT
published after kickoff
projected score
Fresno State
#75 • +20.1 • home
Fresno State logo
—
Model line
+5.5
Market line
—
Edge
38%
Outright win probability
Fresno State 38%Oregon State 62%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board where the game is priced, season sim after
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 4
USC logoat USC
L 0–39#333%
Sep 12
Sacramento State logovs Sacramento State
W 49–3#136
Sep 19
San Jose State logoat San Jose State
W 26–10#9324–2380%
Sep 26
Rice logovs Rice
W 38–24#12923–1794%
Oct 3
Washington State logoat Washington State
W 26–6#13022–1970%
Oct 10
Boise State logovs Boise State
L 31–38#1923–2346%
Oct 17
San Diego State logoat San Diego State
L 23–26#9828–2176%
Oct 31
Oregon State logovs Oregon State
Sat 10:00 PM#4238%
Nov 7
Utah State logoat Utah State
Sat 8:30 PM#12077%
Nov 14
Texas State logoat Texas State
Sat#8225%†
Nov 21
Colorado State logovs Colorado State
Sat#11192%†

Win % is BBMI's probability that the team wins the game outright, not against the spread. It is the published weekly forecast; † marks an early projection from BBMI ratings for a game not yet on the weekly board; Premium marks a subscriber forecast.

Ranking over time

2026 season · place of 138
#60#70#80
#75
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Oct 29

9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, then the current board (Oct 29, open circle). Up 1 to #75, measured against the ranking published Oct 26.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Last updated:
Win Pac-120%
Make the 12-team field0%
Top-4 seed (bye)0%
Reach the semifinal0%
Win the national title0%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
Last updated:
6.3
456789
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 7 wins. The wider published interval, the 5th to the 95th, is 5 to 8. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense (pts vs avg)-0.8#77
Defense (pts vs avg)-2.5#49
Yards per play margin+0.64#76
Turnover margin+0.56#20
Strength of schedule0.0#67

BBMI picks on Fresno State

2026 • ATS
4–1
Picks on Fresno State
1–0
Picks against
+3.5u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.