NCAA Baseball · Model Accuracy
Model Accuracy
Full public log of every BBMI baseball pick vs actual results
Calibration Phase
The baseball model launched in March 2026. Results are tracked transparently from day one. Statistical confidence requires 200+ games with Vegas lines. Headline stats count only picks where edge ≥ 0.5 run and ≤ 4 runs. All win percentages include 95% confidence intervals.
54.7%
O/U Record
591–489 · 1080 calls
4.5%
O/U ROI
at -110 juice · flat $100
51.7–57.7%
95% CI (O/U)
Wilson score interval
62.8%
Premium O/U (≥3)
231 high-edge calls
Performance by Edge Size (Runs) — Over/Under
| Edge | Games | Win % | 95% CI | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–2 | 522 | 51.1% | 46.9–55.4% | -2.4% |
| 2–3 | 327 | 54.7% | 49.3–60.0% | +4.5% |
| 3–4 | 142 | 59.9% | 51.6–67.6% | +14.3% |
| 4–5 | 89 | 67.4% | 57.1–76.3% | +28.7% |
Minimum Edge (|BBMI Line - Vegas Line|):
Showing 101 games.
Gold rows = O/U edge ≥ 3 runs — highest conviction tier~ Faded rows = O/U edge < 1 run — within normal line movement, excluded from O/U stats
Weekly Performance Breakdown — Over/Under
| Week | Picks | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/25 – 5/1 | 61 | 45.9% | -12.4% |
| 4/18 – 4/24 | 108 | 50.0% | -4.5% |
| 4/11 – 4/17 | 101 | 44.6% | -14.9% |
| 4/4 – 4/10 | 84 | 63.1% | +20.5% |
| 3/28 – 4/3 | 112 | 49.1% | -6.3% |
| 3/21 – 3/27 | 68 | 50.0% | -4.5% |
| 3/14 – 3/20 | 83 | 49.4% | -5.7% |
| 3/7 – 3/13 | 105 | 61.0% | +16.4% |
| 2/28 – 3/6 | 111 | 60.4% | +15.2% |
| 2/21 – 2/27 | 134 | 64.2% | +22.5% |
| 2/14 – 2/20 | 113 | 56.6% | +8.1% |
| Season Total | 1080 | 54.7% | +4.5% |
ROI at standard −110 juice
Historical Results By Week
Date⇅ | Away | Home | Vegas Total⇅ | BBMI Total⇅ | O/U Edge⇅ | Score⇅ | O/U Result⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 |  Texas A&M |  Florida | 12.5 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 5–1 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Missouri State |  Louisiana Tech | 13 | 12.5 | ~-0.5 | 8–9 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Oklahoma State |  Oral Roberts | 14 | 14.5 | ~0.5 | 6–11 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Missouri State | Louisiana Tech | 11 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 2–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 |  North Carolina |  Duke | 11.5 | 12.5 | 1.0 | 22–5 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Southern Miss |  South Alabama | 11.5 | 11.5 | ~0.0 | 16–7 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 |  Iowa |  Indiana | 13 | 13.5 | ~0.5 | 9–2 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Oklahoma State |  Texas Tech | 18 | 16.5 | -1.5 | 9–8 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Virginia |  Pittsburgh | 13.5 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 0–11 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Missouri State | Louisiana Tech | 12.5 | 12.5 | ~0.0 | 5–6 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 |  Maryland |  Michigan State | 11 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 4–12 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Clemson |  Louisville | 12 | 15.5 | *3.5 | 6–11 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Rice |  Wichita State | 12 | 15.5 | *3.5 | 3–13 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | SJ Saint John's |  Hofstra | 15 | 12.5 | -2.5 | 12–10 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 | DB Dallas Baptist |  Abilene Christian | 16 | 14.5 | -1.5 | 16–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | NCS North Carolina State |  Virginia Tech | 13 | 12.5 | ~-0.5 | 14–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Kentucky |  South Carolina | 10 | 10.5 | ~0.5 | 4–9 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Washington |  Michigan | 11 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 3–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Rice | Wichita State | 12 | 14.5 | 2.5 | 3–2 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 |  UC Irvine |  UC San Diego | 13 | 13.5 | ~0.5 | 4–9 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 |  Georgia |  Ole Miss | 11 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 8–10 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | U UTSA |  Tulane | 12 | 11.5 | ~-0.5 | 8–2 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | 18 | 18.5 | ~0.5 | 11–2 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Virginia | Pittsburgh | 15 | 15.5 | ~0.5 | 3–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Iowa | Indiana | 14 | 13.5 | ~-0.5 | 7–4 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Southern Miss | South Alabama | 11 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 3–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Northwestern |  Minnesota | 12.5 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 2–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Georgia | Ole Miss | 14 | 14.5 | ~0.5 | 5–1 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | UC Irvine | UC San Diego | 15.5 | 13.5 | -2.0 | 9–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-27 |  BYU |  Grand Canyon | 13.5 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 3–10 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 | C Connecticut |  Rutgers | 13 | 12.5 | ~-0.5 | 5–4 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Gonzaga |  Oregon | 12.5 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 3–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Marshall |  Morehead State | 20.5 | 15.5 | *-5.0 | 6–9 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Kansas | Wichita State | 12.5 | 15.5 | *3.0 | 14–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | Southern Miss | Tulane | 13 | 11.5 | -1.5 | 6–7 | --- |
| 2026-04-28 |  USC | UC Irvine | 12.5 | 12.5 | ~0.0 | 1–4 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 |  South Florida |  East Carolina | 10 | 10.5 | ~0.5 | 4–12 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Arkansas |  Missouri | 11.5 | 11.5 | ~0.0 | 1–6 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 |  West Virginia |  Cincinnati | 13 | 12.5 | ~-0.5 | 9–5 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Cal State Northridge |  Cal Poly | 12 | 12.5 | ~0.5 | 4–5 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Oklahoma |  Auburn | 10.5 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 2–1 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | South Florida | East Carolina | 10 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 4–12 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Texas State |  Coastal Carolina | 13 | 13.5 | ~0.5 | 10–6 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Wake Forest |  Georgia Tech | 14.5 | 15.5 | 1.0 | 5–6 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Boston College |  Notre Dame | 11 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 7–6 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | U UTSA | Tulane | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | 7–12 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Maryland | Michigan State | 12.5 | 15.5 | *3.0 | 1–13 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 |  California |  Miami (FL) | 11.5 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 1–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Louisiana |  Arkansas State | 12.5 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 3–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Florida State |  Stanford | 12.5 | 15.5 | *3.0 | 4–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Cal State Northridge | Cal Poly | 13.5 | 13.5 | ~0.0 | 2–5 | --- |
| 2026-04-28 |  Troy | Georgia | 13.5 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 1–11 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Appalachian State | Wake Forest | 13.5 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 2–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 | Coastal Carolina | North Carolina | 12 | 11.5 | ~-0.5 | 12–2 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 | Louisiana Tech | U ULM | 13.5 | 10.5 | *-3.0 | 5–16 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Kansas State |  Nebraska | 14 | 12.5 | -1.5 | 6–7 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 |  UCLA |  UC Santa Barbara | 12 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 15–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 | California |  Saint Mary's | 13 | 12.5 | ~-0.5 | 6–5 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Cal State Fullerton |  San Diego State | 12 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 3–5 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Arizona | Grand Canyon | 12 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 8–9 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | West Virginia | Cincinnati | 11 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 5–5 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Boston College | Notre Dame | 11 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 16–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Kansas | Kansas State | 14 | 13.5 | ~-0.5 | 10–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Houston |  TCU | 10.5 | 13.5 | *3.0 | 2–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | BYU | Arizona | 10 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 8–4 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Nebraska |  Illinois | 12.5 | 12.5 | ~0.0 | 12–5 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 | Texas A&M | Florida | 12 | 12.5 | ~0.5 | 8–4 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 | Florida State | Stanford | 11 | 14.5 | *3.5 | 7–8 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Purdue | USC | 10.5 | 10.5 | ~0.0 | 1–6 | --- |
| 2026-04-25 | California | Miami (FL) | 10.5 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 3–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Cal State Fullerton | UC Santa Barbara | 10 | 9.5 | ~-0.5 | 9–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Louisiana | Arkansas State | 11 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 11–5 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  LSU |  Mississippi State | 11.5 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 8–9 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Texas |  Vanderbilt | 12 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 0–6 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Texas | Vanderbilt | 12.5 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 4–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | West Virginia | Cincinnati | 14 | 13.5 | ~-0.5 | 5–7 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Washington | Michigan | 13 | 13.5 | ~0.5 | 7–5 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | NCS North Carolina State | Virginia Tech | 14.5 | 14.5 | ~0.0 | 4–5 | --- |
| 2026-04-26 | Nebraska | Illinois | 14.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | 3–0 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Clemson | Louisville | 14 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 5–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Oklahoma | Auburn | 11.5 | 12.5 | 1.0 | 4–14 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Kentucky | South Carolina | 10.5 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 9–5 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 |  Hawaii |  Oregon State | 9.5 | 12.5 | *3.0 | 1–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Cal State Fullerton | UC Santa Barbara | 11.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 | 6–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | Indiana | Louisville | 15.5 | 15.5 | ~0.0 | 10–6 | --- |
| 2026-04-28 |  High Point |  Campbell | 13.5 | 13.5 | ~0.0 | 4–5 | --- |
| 2026-04-28 |  VCU |  Old Dominion | 12.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | 6–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-28 |  Charlotte |  Liberty | 13 | 13.5 | ~0.5 | 2–12 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | East Carolina | NCS North Carolina State | 14 | 13.5 | ~-0.5 | 2–12 | --- |
| 2026-04-28 |  The Citadel | South Carolina | 11.5 | 11.5 | ~0.0 | 4–0 | --- |
| 2026-04-28 |  Lamar | Rice | 10 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 5–6 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Wake Forest | Georgia Tech | 13.5 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 11–14 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Texas State | Coastal Carolina | 13 | 12.5 | ~-0.5 | 1–2 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Hawaii | Oregon State | 8.5 | 11.5 | *3.0 | 1–8 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 |  Baylor |  Arizona State | 13 | 13.5 | ~0.5 | 2–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Kansas | Kansas State | 14.5 | 14.5 | ~0.0 | 9–7 | --- |
| 2026-04-26 | LSU | Mississippi State | 12.5 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 8–13 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Houston | TCU | 12 | 15.5 | *3.5 | 2–14 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Purdue | USC | 11.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 | 4–11 | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Baylor | Arizona State | 15.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | 4–11 | ✓ |
| 2026-04-27 |  UC Davis | Stanford | 13.5 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 5–6 | ✗ |