NCAA Baseball · Model vs Market

BBMI vs Vegas

How does the BBMI model compare to sportsbook lines?

1501
Games Compared
74.1%
Same Side
4.61
BBMI MAE
4.45
Vegas MAE
Who Was Closer to Actual Margin?
512
BBMI Closer
412
Tie
577
Vegas Closer
Line Disagreement Distribution
DifferenceGames% of Total
Agree (< 0.5)35623.4%
Close (0.5–1.5)50733.4%
Moderate (1.5–3)29219.2%
Large (3–5)33422.0%
Extreme (5+)312.0%

Note: MAE (Mean Absolute Error) measures how close each model's line was to the actual game margin. Lower = more accurate. The model is in its first season — these numbers will become more meaningful as games accumulate.

Recent Games — Line Comparison
DateAwayHomeVegasBBMIDiffActualBBMI ErrVegas ErrCloser
2026-04-28Troy logoTroyGeorgia logoGeorgia-3.5-5.52.01–114.56.5BBMI
2026-04-28
C
Connecticut		Rutgers logoRutgers1.5-1.53.05–42.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28
SJ
Saint John's		Hofstra logoHofstra1.5-2.54.012–104.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28Indiana logoIndianaLouisville logoLouisville-2.5-3.51.010–67.56.5Vegas
2026-04-28Gonzaga logoGonzagaOregon logoOregon-1.5-4.53.03–43.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28High Point logoHigh PointCampbell logoCampbell-1.5-2.51.04–51.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28VCU logoVCUOld Dominion logoOld Dominion1.50.51.06–71.52.5BBMI
2026-04-28Charlotte logoCharlotteLiberty logoLiberty-2.5-3.51.02–126.57.5BBMI
2026-04-28Appalachian State logoAppalachian StateWake Forest logoWake Forest-2.5-4.52.02–33.51.5Vegas
2026-04-28East Carolina logoEast Carolina
NCS
North Carolina State		-1.5-0.51.02–129.58.5Vegas
2026-04-28Marshall logoMarshallMorehead State logoMorehead State1.5-1.53.06–91.54.5BBMI
2026-04-28The Citadel logoThe CitadelSouth Carolina logoSouth Carolina-1.5-2.51.04–06.55.5Vegas
2026-04-28Coastal Carolina logoCoastal CarolinaNorth Carolina logoNorth Carolina-1.5-3.52.012–213.511.5Vegas
2026-04-28Louisiana Tech logoLouisiana Tech
U
ULM		1.5-0.52.05–1610.512.5BBMI
2026-04-28Kansas logoKansasWichita State logoWichita State1.5-1.53.014–114.511.5Vegas
2026-04-28Kansas State logoKansas StateNebraska logoNebraska-1.5-3.52.06–72.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28
DB
Dallas Baptist		Abilene Christian logoAbilene Christian1.5-2.54.016–414.510.5Vegas
2026-04-28Southern Miss logoSouthern MissTulane logoTulane1.5-1.53.06–70.52.5BBMI
2026-04-28Lamar logoLamarRice logoRice-1.5-2.51.05–61.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28Oklahoma State logoOklahoma StateOral Roberts logoOral Roberts2.5-2.55.06–112.57.5BBMI
2026-04-28UCLA logoUCLAUC Santa Barbara logoUC Santa Barbara2.50.52.015–311.59.5Vegas
2026-04-28California logoCaliforniaSaint Mary's logoSaint Mary's1.5-0.52.06–51.50.5Vegas
2026-04-28USC logoUSCUC Irvine logoUC Irvine2.5-0.53.01–42.55.5BBMI
2026-04-28Cal State Fullerton logoCal State FullertonSan Diego State logoSan Diego State1.5-0.52.03–51.53.5BBMI
2026-04-28Arizona logoArizonaGrand Canyon logoGrand Canyon1.5-0.52.08–90.52.5BBMI
2026-04-27BYU logoBYUGrand Canyon logoGrand Canyon1.5-1.53.03–105.58.5BBMI
2026-04-27UC Davis logoUC DavisStanford logoStanford-2.5-2.50.05–61.51.5Tie
2026-04-26South Florida logoSouth FloridaEast Carolina logoEast Carolina-1.5-3.52.04–124.56.5BBMI
2026-04-26Texas State logoTexas StateCoastal Carolina logoCoastal Carolina-2.5-4.52.010–68.56.5Vegas
2026-04-26Kansas logoKansasKansas State logoKansas State-1.5-1.50.09–73.53.5Tie