Team Pages/Sun Belt/Texas State
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SUN BELT • 2026 SEASON

Texas State

Record 37-26vs line 7–3 ATSLast L 4–15 vs USCPostseason Regional
#92
BBMI rank
+0.72
Rating
+0.4
Run margin
#41
RPI

Last game

Game Picks →
Last updated: (data published)
USC logo
USC
#24 • +2.01 • Grant Govel
SUN MAY 31 • 3:00 PM CT
15 – 4
final score
Texas State
#92 • +0.72 • neutral • Sam Hall
Texas State logo
+3.5
Model run line
+2.5
Market run line
-1.0
Edge
37%
Win probability
Texas State 37%USC 63%
The 2026 season is complete. The board returns in February.

Schedule & projections

projected runs and win prob from the board
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Feb 14
Niagara logovs Niagara
W 11–3#2167.3–6.460%
Feb 15
Niagara logovs Niagara
W 11–0#2167.3–6.460%
Feb 17
Baylor logoat Baylor
L 4–14#755.7–6.442%
Feb 20
Gonzaga logovs Gonzaga
W 8–6#946.8–6.752%
Feb 21
Gonzaga logovs Gonzaga
L 1–5#946.8–6.752%
Feb 22
Gonzaga logovs Gonzaga
W 5–0#946.8–6.752%
Feb 24
UTSA logovs UTSA
W 7–2#437.0–7.050%
Feb 27
Abilene Christian logoat Abilene Christian
W 5–4#1595.9–6.247%
Feb 28
Tarleton State logoat Tarleton State
W 9–3#1165.7–6.145%
Mar 1
Abilene Christian logovs Abilene Christian
W 3–0#1596.4–5.759%
Mar 5
Washington State logovs Washington State
W 13–11#1357.4–6.560%
Mar 6
Washington State logovs Washington State
L 7–9#1356.9–6.060%
Mar 6
Washington State logovs Washington State
W 10–4#1357.2–6.360%
Mar 8
Washington State logovs Washington State
W 4–3#1357.4–6.560%
Mar 10
Texas logovs Texas
L 4–15#26.6–7.145%
Mar 13
UM
at UL Monroe
L 6–124.3–5.042%
Mar 14
UM
at UL Monroe
L 5–84.3–5.042%
Mar 15
UM
at UL Monroe
L 5–164.3–5.042%
Mar 17
Texas A&M logoat Texas A&M
L 6–9#106.1–7.436%
Mar 20
Louisiana logovs Louisiana
W 4–1#406.6–6.552%
Mar 21
Louisiana logovs Louisiana
W 11–4#406.9–6.653%
Mar 22
Louisiana logovs Louisiana
W 16–6#406.7–6.750%
Mar 24
U
vs UTRGV
W 8–7#1137.0–6.358%
Mar 27
Georgia State logoat Georgia State
W 18–6#1537.5–7.648%
Mar 28
Georgia State logoat Georgia State
W 1–0#1537.0–7.148%
Mar 29
Georgia State logoat Georgia State
W 12–3#1537.0–7.247%
Mar 31
Texas logoat Texas
L 8–10#24.8–6.332%
Apr 2
Georgia Southern logovs Georgia Southern
W 8–5#2128.8–6.770%
Apr 3
Georgia Southern logovs Georgia Southern
W 15–5#2128.4–6.569%
Apr 3
Georgia Southern logovs Georgia Southern
W 15–5#2128.0–6.269%
Apr 7
Texas A&M logovs Texas A&M
W 9–8#107.0–7.248%
Apr 8
Stephen F. Austin logovs Stephen F. Austin
W 10–0#2178.0–6.862%
Apr 10
Troy logovs Troy
W 8–5#427.3–7.054%
Apr 11
Troy logovs Troy
L 2–15#427.1–6.854%
Apr 11
Troy logovs Troy
L 2–15#426.8–6.454%
Apr 14
Houston Christian logovs Houston Christian
W 4–3#1577.6–6.958%
Apr 17
Southern Miss logoat Southern Miss
L 2–8#446.0–7.138%
Apr 18
Southern Miss logoat Southern Miss
L 3–6#445.7–6.738%
Apr 19
Southern Miss logoat Southern Miss
L 4–5#445.6–6.638%
Apr 21
Incarnate Word logovs Incarnate Word
W 3–1#2408.4–6.965%
Apr 24
Coastal Carolina logoat Coastal Carolina
L 2–6#325.8–6.938%
Apr 25
Coastal Carolina logoat Coastal Carolina
L 1–2#325.8–6.838%
Apr 26
Coastal Carolina logoat Coastal Carolina
W 10–6#325.8–6.838%
Apr 28
TAC
vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
L 2–7#2117.5–6.363%
May 1
South Alabama logovs South Alabama
L 2–6#646.7–6.453%
May 2
South Alabama logovs South Alabama
L 4–6#646.7–6.453%
May 3
South Alabama logovs South Alabama
L 4–7#646.7–6.453%
May 5
Baylor logovs Baylor
W 9–6#757.1–6.655%
May 8
Arkansas State logoat Arkansas State
W 6–2#596.1–7.040%
May 9
Arkansas State logoat Arkansas State
W 8–3#596.1–7.040%
May 10
Arkansas State logoat Arkansas State
W 15–9#596.1–7.040%
May 12
UTSA logoat UTSA
L 4–19#436.4–7.637%
May 14
Marshall logovs Marshall
W 5–0#1706.7–6.256%
May 15
Marshall logovs Marshall
W 12–9#1706.7–6.256%
May 16
Marshall logovs Marshall
W 5–4#1706.7–6.256%
May 20
Appalachian State logoat Appalachian State
W 6–5#1226.4–7.142%
May 21
Louisiana logovs Louisiana
W 4–3#406.2–6.251%
May 23
Louisiana logovs Louisiana
L 6–12#406.5–6.056%
May 23
Louisiana logoat Louisiana
W 7–4#405.9–6.741%
May 29
USC logovs USC
W 5–4#245.4–6.340%
May 30
Texas A&M logovs Texas A&M
L 2–17#105.8–6.542%
May 31
USC logovs USC
L 4–15#245.3–6.437%

Ranking over time

weekly · place of 308
#70#80#90
#92
Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9Jun 16

13 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.

Road to Omaha

Pulse →
Last updated:
3
Regional seed
—
National seed
Regional
College Station Regional
The bracket is resolved, so this is the result rather than a probability.

Regular-season wins

not published
Last updated: (data published)
This sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.

Profile

Runs per game6.7#128
Runs allowed per game6.3#131
Starter FIP6.30#230
Team OPS.814#140
Team wOBA.373#107
Run margin+0.4#129
Strength of schedule#26
The mock asks for a weekend rotation ERA; this feed publishes starter FIP, which is a different statistic and is shown under its own name. Every other row is the mock’s, and this is the only one of the seven sports where that is true.

BBMI picks on Texas State

2026 • ATS
4–1
Picks on Texas State
3–2
Picks against
+3.4u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. A game counts only inside the published edge band, and it is graded against the market line, which is the same rule the model-performance page uses. 10 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.