ACC • 2026 SEASON
Louisville
#45
BBMI rank
+1.44
Rating
+1.5
Run margin
#92
RPI
Last game
Game Picks →
Pittsburgh
TUE MAY 19 • 8:00 PM CT
16 – 8
final score
Louisville
-2.5
Model run line
-1.5
Market run line
+1.0
Edge
57%
Win probability
Louisville 57%Pittsburgh 43%
The 2026 season is complete. The board returns in February.
Schedule & projections
projected runs and win prob from the boardDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Feb 14
vs Michigan StateL 4–13#1068.7–7.363%
vs Michigan StateFeb 15vs Michigan StateW 9–1#1068.7–7.363%
vs Michigan StateFeb 17
vs XavierW 23–11#1109.0–7.663%
vs XavierFeb 20
vs NebraskaW 4–2#196.4–6.153%
vs NebraskaFeb 21
at MichiganL 5–8#765.9–6.346%
at MichiganFeb 22
vs AuburnL 6–10#66.0–6.050%
vs AuburnFeb 25
vs Eastern KentuckyW 6–5#2679.9–7.671%
vs Eastern KentuckyFeb 27
vs Central MichiganW 16–2#2729.9–7.968%
vs Central MichiganFeb 28vs Central MichiganW 9–8#2729.9–7.968%
vs Central MichiganMar 1vs Central MichiganW 7–5#2729.9–7.968%
vs Central MichiganMar 3
vs Morehead StateL 5–13#2229.8–8.067%
vs Morehead StateMar 6
vs Seton HallW 16–1#2378.8–7.365%
vs Seton HallMar 7vs Seton HallW 13–3#2378.8–7.365%
vs Seton HallMar 8vs Seton HallW 6–2#2378.8–7.365%
vs Seton HallMar 10
vs MarshallW 16–5#1708.6–7.660%
vs MarshallMar 11vs MarshallW 18–8#1708.6–7.660%
vs MarshallMar 13
vs Notre DameL 11–14#488.4–7.956%
vs Notre DameMar 14vs Notre DameW 8–7#488.4–7.956%
vs Notre DameMar 15vs Notre DameW 21–12#488.4–7.956%
vs Notre DameMar 18
vs Northern KentuckyW 16–1#29110.3–8.070%
vs Northern KentuckyMar 20
at North CarolinaL 1–11#55.6–6.837%
at North CarolinaMar 21at North CarolinaW 2–0#55.7–6.937%
at North CarolinaMar 22at North CarolinaL 6–7#55.9–6.840%
at North CarolinaMar 24
at Western KentuckyL 5–10#1366.7–6.749%
at Western KentuckyMar 27vs PittsburghL 3–4#339.1–8.556%
vs PittsburghMar 28vs PittsburghW 8–5#338.8–8.157%
vs PittsburghMar 29vs PittsburghL 7–13#338.6–7.957%
vs PittsburghMar 31at Eastern KentuckyW 17–7#2678.1–7.358%
at Eastern KentuckyApr 2
at DukeL 3–6#577.1–7.545%
at DukeApr 3at DukeL 8–10#577.2–7.645%
at DukeApr 4at DukeW 9–4#577.2–7.547%
at DukeApr 7
at KentuckyL 2–4#216.0–6.841%
at KentuckyApr 10
vs StanfordL 2–12#938.7–7.661%
vs StanfordApr 11vs StanfordW 10–0#938.9–7.861%
vs StanfordApr 12vs StanfordL 4–6#939.1–8.061%
vs StanfordApr 14vs Western KentuckyW 7–3#1369.4–8.063%
vs Western KentuckyApr 17
at CaliforniaL 5–8#386.0–6.544%
at CaliforniaApr 18at CaliforniaL 5–6#385.7–6.145%
at CaliforniaApr 19at CaliforniaW 8–5#385.7–6.045%
at CaliforniaApr 21vs KentuckyW 14–10#218.2–7.854%
vs KentuckyApr 24
vs ClemsonW 13–10#228.4–8.055%
vs ClemsonApr 25vs ClemsonW 11–6#228.0–7.555%
vs ClemsonApr 26vs ClemsonW 7–5#228.0–7.555%
vs ClemsonApr 28
vs IndianaL 6–10#798.6–7.561%
vs IndianaApr 30
at Wake ForestL 8–9#136.8–8.038%
at Wake ForestMay 1at Wake ForestL 5–6#136.8–8.038%
at Wake ForestMay 2at Wake ForestL 5–7#136.8–8.038%
at Wake ForestMay 5
at VanderbiltL 6–12#287.0–7.842%
at VanderbiltMay 7
at Miami (FL)L 8–13#266.5–7.639%
at Miami (FL)May 8at Miami (FL)W 16–9#266.5–7.639%
at Miami (FL)May 9at Miami (FL)L 8–10#266.5–7.639%
at Miami (FL)May 12
vs BellarmineW 14–7#2769.7–7.868%
vs BellarmineMay 14
vs VirginiaL 3–8#258.0–7.655%
vs VirginiaMay 15vs VirginiaW 12–2#258.0–7.655%
vs VirginiaMay 16vs VirginiaW 10–5#258.0–7.655%
vs VirginiaMay 19vs PittsburghL 8–16#337.3–6.757%
vs PittsburghRanking over time
weekly · place of 308#24#39#54#69#84#85
#45
Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9Jun 16
13 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.
Road to Omaha
Pulse →This team did not reach the 2026 tournament field.
Regular-season wins
not publishedThis sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.
Profile
Runs per game8.6#12
Runs allowed per game7.0#197
Starter FIP5.99#216
Team OPS.932#10
Team wOBA.403#24
Run margin+1.5#63
Strength of schedule#59
The mock asks for a weekend rotation ERA; this feed publishes starter FIP, which is a different statistic and is shown under its own name. Every other row is the mock’s, and this is the only one of the seven sports where that is true.
BBMI picks on Louisville
2026 • ATS6–5
Picks on Louisville
8–6
Picks against
+1.7u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. A game counts only inside the published edge band, and it is graded against the market line, which is the same rule the model-performance page uses. 25 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.