ACC • 2026 SEASON
Virginia
#25
BBMI rank
+1.92
Rating
+1.8
Run margin
#24
RPI
Next game
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Norfolk State
WED APR 29 • 1:00 PM CT
not projected
projected runs
Virginia
—
Model run line
—
Market run line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
projected runs and win prob from the boardDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Feb 14
vs WagnerW 25–10#2348.2–6.864%
vs WagnerFeb 14vs WagnerW 31–8#2348.6–7.264%
vs WagnerFeb 17W 5–2#1758.5–7.461%
V
vs VMIFeb 20
at MonmouthW 21–8#1836.9–6.949%
at MonmouthFeb 21
at StetsonL 5–6#1396.3–6.548%
at StetsonFeb 22
vs North Dakota StateW 5–4#2907.8–5.673%
vs North Dakota StateFeb 25
vs George WashingtonW 11–0#2428.6–6.669%
vs George WashingtonFeb 27
vs VCUW 5–3#538.0–7.159%
vs VCUFeb 28vs VCUW 7–6#538.0–7.159%
vs VCUMar 1at VCUW 5–3#536.6–7.145%
at VCUMar 3
at CharlotteL 0–14#636.6–6.848%
at CharlotteMar 4at CharlotteW 8–1#636.7–6.948%
at CharlotteMar 6
at North CarolinaW 13–3#55.4–6.240%
at North CarolinaMar 7at North CarolinaW 9–2#54.9–5.740%
at North CarolinaMar 7at North CarolinaL 7–8#55.2–6.040%
at North CarolinaMar 10
vs William & MaryW 9–7#1848.8–7.166%
vs William & MaryMar 13
vs Virginia TechW 11–6#607.9–6.762%
vs Virginia TechMar 14vs Virginia TechW 10–5#607.9–6.762%
vs Virginia TechMar 15vs Virginia TechL 3–6#607.9–6.762%
vs Virginia TechMar 17
vs GeorgetownW 6–4#2028.4–7.064%
vs GeorgetownMar 18
at LibertyW 14–12#316.3–7.041%
at LibertyMar 20
vs Wake ForestW 10–6#137.5–7.253%
vs Wake ForestMar 21vs Wake ForestL 4–13#137.5–7.353%
vs Wake ForestMar 22vs Wake ForestW 14–4#137.6–7.254%
vs Wake ForestMar 24
vs MarylandW 16–6#707.5–6.561%
vs MarylandMar 27
at Boston CollegeL 3–5#346.2–6.843%
at Boston CollegeMar 28at Boston CollegeL 0–17#346.1–6.743%
at Boston CollegeMar 29at Boston CollegeW 3–1#346.1–6.545%
at Boston CollegeMar 31
vs Old DominionW 16–2#1028.6–7.263%
vs Old DominionApr 2
vs Florida StateW 4–3#297.7–7.057%
vs Florida StateApr 3vs Florida StateL 2–5#298.1–7.458%
vs Florida StateApr 4vs Florida StateL 3–9#297.6–6.957%
vs Florida StateApr 7
vs James MadisonL 7–8#1418.2–6.765%
vs James MadisonApr 10
at Notre DameW 8–4#486.7–7.245%
at Notre DameApr 11at Notre DameL 3–5#486.4–6.845%
at Notre DameApr 12at Notre DameW 20–5#486.3–6.845%
at Notre DameApr 14at VCUL 2–6#536.8–7.245%
at VCUApr 16
vs ClemsonW 6–4#227.5–6.857%
vs ClemsonApr 17vs ClemsonL 1–5#227.6–6.859%
vs ClemsonApr 18vs ClemsonW 5–4#227.5–6.857%
vs ClemsonApr 22vs LibertyW 5–4#318.0–7.555%
vs LibertyApr 24
at PittsburghL 5–7#337.2–7.546%
at PittsburghApr 25at PittsburghL 0–11#336.8–7.146%
at PittsburghApr 26at PittsburghL 3–7#336.8–7.146%
at PittsburghApr 28
vs George MasonW 5–1#1408.2–7.161%
vs George MasonApr 29vs Norfolk State—#301
vs Norfolk StateMay 3
vs RadfordW 11–1#1437.8–6.762%
vs RadfordMay 3vs RadfordW 11–1#1437.5–6.462%
vs RadfordMay 8
vs CaliforniaL 4–7#387.5–6.462%
vs CaliforniaMay 9vs CaliforniaW 2–1#387.5–6.462%
vs CaliforniaMay 10vs CaliforniaL 7–8#387.5–6.462%
vs CaliforniaMay 12
vs RichmondW 18–6#988.3–7.261%
vs RichmondMay 14
at LouisvilleW 8–3#457.6–8.045%
at LouisvilleMay 15at LouisvilleL 2–12#457.6–8.045%
at LouisvilleMay 16at LouisvilleL 5–10#457.6–8.045%
at LouisvilleMay 20
vs DukeW 6–4#577.1–5.963%
vs DukeMay 21
at Georgia TechL 10–16#15.8–7.334%
at Georgia TechMay 29
vs Jacksonville StateL 7–15#665.9–6.148%
vs Jacksonville StateMay 30
at Southern MissW 15–11#445.7–6.343%
at Southern MissMay 31vs Jacksonville StateL 6–7#666.2–6.052%
vs Jacksonville StateRanking over time
weekly · place of 308#10#14#18#22#26#27
#25
Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9Jun 16
13 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.
Road to Omaha
Pulse →2
Regional seed
—
National seed
Regional
Hattiesburg Regional
The bracket is resolved, so this is the result rather than a probability.
Regular-season wins
not publishedThis sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.
Profile
Runs per game8.0#30
Runs allowed per game6.2#119
Starter FIP5.27#175
Team OPS.887#41
Team wOBA.388#54
Run margin+1.8#49
Strength of schedule#15
The mock asks for a weekend rotation ERA; this feed publishes starter FIP, which is a different statistic and is shown under its own name. Every other row is the mock’s, and this is the only one of the seven sports where that is true.
BBMI picks on Virginia
2026 • ATS4–0
Picks on Virginia
8–6
Picks against
+4.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. A game counts only inside the published edge band, and it is graded against the market line, which is the same rule the model-performance page uses. 18 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.