ACC • 2026 SEASON
Duke
#57
BBMI rank
+1.19
Rating
-0.8
Run margin
#90
RPI
Last game
Game Picks →Duke
WED MAY 20 • 8:00 AM CT
4 – 6
final score
Virginia
+3.5
Model run line
+2.5
Market run line
-1.0
Edge
37%
Win probability
Duke 37%Virginia 63%
The 2026 season is complete. The board returns in February.
Schedule & projections
projected runs and win prob from the boardDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Feb 14
vs MaineW 3–0#1446.8–5.860%
vs MaineFeb 14vs MaineW 7–1#1447.1–6.260%
vs MaineFeb 17
vs Appalachian StateW 10–5#1227.1–6.656%
vs Appalachian StateFeb 20
vs MilwaukeeW 20–3#2557.6–6.661%
vs MilwaukeeFeb 21vs MilwaukeeW 10–8#2557.0–6.161%
vs MilwaukeeFeb 21vs MilwaukeeL 6–9#2557.4–6.461%
vs MilwaukeeFeb 22vs MilwaukeeW 6–1#2557.6–6.661%
vs MilwaukeeFeb 24W 6–3#614.5–4.946%
U
at UNCWFeb 27
vs PrincetonW 6–2#2797.4–6.164%
vs PrincetonFeb 28vs PrincetonW 9–2#2796.8–5.664%
vs PrincetonFeb 28vs PrincetonW 14–4#2797.2–5.964%
vs PrincetonMar 1vs PrincetonL 7–8#2797.4–6.164%
vs PrincetonMar 3
vs Gardner-WebbW 15–3#2207.5–6.660%
vs Gardner-WebbMar 6
vs Notre DameL 4–10#486.7–6.552%
vs Notre DameMar 7vs Notre DameW 6–5#486.7–6.552%
vs Notre DameMar 8vs Notre DameL 0–2#486.7–6.552%
vs Notre DameMar 10
at High PointL 6–12#506.4–7.439%
at High PointMar 13
vs Miami (FL)W 4–0#266.4–6.649%
vs Miami (FL)Mar 14vs Miami (FL)L 0–9#266.4–6.649%
vs Miami (FL)Mar 15vs Miami (FL)W 20–10#266.4–6.649%
vs Miami (FL)Mar 17
at CampbellL 3–13#496.7–8.036%
at CampbellMar 20
at Virginia TechL 1–7#606.3–7.042%
at Virginia TechMar 21at Virginia TechW 8–6#606.4–7.142%
at Virginia TechMar 22at Virginia TechL 6–7#606.4–7.242%
at Virginia TechMar 24
vs East CarolinaW 9–8#176.3–6.350%
vs East CarolinaMar 27
at Florida StateL 1–3#296.4–7.539%
at Florida StateMar 28at Florida StateL 11–12#296.7–7.839%
at Florida StateMar 29at Florida StateW 11–4#296.5–7.837%
at Florida StateMar 31
vs DavidsonW 14–9#2147.7–6.761%
vs DavidsonApr 2
vs LouisvilleW 6–3#457.5–7.155%
vs LouisvilleApr 3vs LouisvilleW 10–8#457.6–7.255%
vs LouisvilleApr 4vs LouisvilleL 4–9#457.5–7.253%
vs LouisvilleApr 7at East CarolinaL 6–8#175.4–6.537%
at East CarolinaApr 10L 4–10#626.6–7.540%
NCS
at North Carolina StateApr 11L 5–18#626.6–7.640%
NCS
at North Carolina StateApr 12W 3–2#626.7–7.640%
NCS
at North Carolina StateApr 14
vs LibertyL 7–17#316.5–6.649%
vs LibertyApr 17
at Boston CollegeL 1–11#346.5–7.639%
at Boston CollegeApr 18at Boston CollegeL 2–4#346.1–7.337%
at Boston CollegeApr 18at Boston CollegeL 2–4#345.8–6.937%
at Boston CollegeApr 21at LibertyL 10–13#316.1–7.536%
at LibertyApr 23
vs North CarolinaL 1–3#56.3–6.647%
vs North CarolinaApr 24vs North CarolinaW 3–1#56.3–6.647%
vs North CarolinaApr 25vs North CarolinaL 5–22#56.3–6.547%
vs North CarolinaMay 3at North CarolinaL 0–13#55.3–6.635%
at North CarolinaMay 5L 7–11#2807.7–5.870%
Q
vs QueensMay 8
at Georgia TechL 9–10#16.8–8.731%
at Georgia TechMay 9at Georgia TechL 2–15#16.8–8.731%
at Georgia TechMay 10at Georgia TechL 1–14#16.8–8.731%
at Georgia TechMay 12
vs William & MaryW 14–9#1847.5–6.659%
vs William & MaryMay 14
vs Wake ForestL 2–7#136.2–6.348%
vs Wake ForestMay 15vs Wake ForestL 2–7#136.2–6.348%
vs Wake ForestMay 16vs Wake ForestW 7–3#136.2–6.348%
vs Wake ForestMay 19W 21–12#626.3–7.241%
NCS
at North Carolina StateMay 20at VirginiaL 4–6#255.9–7.137%
at VirginiaRanking over time
weekly · place of 308#55#65#75#85#93
#57
Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9Jun 16
13 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.
Road to Omaha
Pulse →This team did not reach the 2026 tournament field.
Regular-season wins
not publishedThis sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.
Profile
Runs per game6.6#138
Runs allowed per game7.4#219
Starter FIP5.41#181
Team OPS.840#101
Team wOBA.368#125
Run margin-0.8#204
Strength of schedule#17
The mock asks for a weekend rotation ERA; this feed publishes starter FIP, which is a different statistic and is shown under its own name. Every other row is the mock’s, and this is the only one of the seven sports where that is true.
BBMI picks on Duke
2026 • ATS5–5
Picks on Duke
7–1
Picks against
+4.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. A game counts only inside the published edge band, and it is graded against the market line, which is the same rule the model-performance page uses. 18 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.