NFL Analytics · Weekly Preview

Week 18 Games

Matchup analytics and team ratings — the EPA edges, the injury impacts, and how the model sees each game. The Vegas line is shown for context only.

Analytics, not picks — BBMI makes no NFL betting recommendations
Sat, Jan 3SEASEA14–3@SFSF12–5Final SEA 13–3 SF

Offense EPA / play

SEA+0.04
SF+0.15

Defense EPA / play

SEA−0.161
SF+0.071

What to watch

S.Darnold (A-, 0.163 EPA/db) faces San Francisco 49ers's C-graded coverage
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (San Francisco 49ers +0.206, Seattle Seahawks +0.179 pass EPA)
ASEA WR/TEvsSF CoverageCA-SEA QBvsSF CoverageC
Sun, Jan 4LACLAC11–6@DENDEN14–3Final LAC 3–19 DEN

Offense EPA / play

LAC−0.00
DEN+0.05

Defense EPA / play

LAC−0.093
DEN−0.034

Injury impact on the line

LACJustin HerbertQBStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 LAC
DENBo NixQBIRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 DEN
DENJ.K. DobbinsRBIRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 DEN

What to watch

Los Angeles Chargers's pass protection (C, 8.4% sack rate) must handle Denver Broncos's A-graded pass rush
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (Denver Broncos +0.112, Los Angeles Chargers +0.082 pass EPA)
CLAC O-LinevsDEN Pass RushACLAC Run GamevsDEN Run DefA
Sun, Jan 4DETDET9–8@CHICHI11–6Final DET 19–16 CHI

Offense EPA / play

DET+0.03
CHI+0.10

Defense EPA / play

DET+0.024
CHI+0.022

What to watch

D.Swift and Chicago Bears's run game (A, +0.011 EPA/rush) against Detroit Lions's C-graded run defense
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (Chicago Bears +0.125, Detroit Lions +0.185 pass EPA)
Toss-up: only 0.3 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
ACHI Run GamevsDET Run DefCACHI O-LinevsDET Pass RushB-
Sun, Jan 4MIAMIA7–10@NENE14–3Final MIA 10–38 NE

Offense EPA / play

MIA+0.00
NE+0.19

Defense EPA / play

MIA+0.050
NE−0.030

Injury impact on the line

MIADe'Von AchaneRBStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 MIA

What to watch

D.Maye (A, 0.318 EPA/db) faces Miami Dolphins's D-graded coverage
New England Patriots is a heavy favorite (9.8-point rating gap) — Miami Dolphins needs a major upset
ANE QBvsMIA CoverageDA-NE WR/TEvsMIA CoverageD
Sun, Jan 4INDIND8–9@HOUHOU12–5Final IND 30–38 HOU

Offense EPA / play

IND+0.03
HOU−0.01

Defense EPA / play

IND+0.042
HOU−0.115

Injury impact on the line

INDDaniel JonesQBIRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 IND

What to watch

W.Marks and Houston Texans's run game (D, -0.151 EPA/rush) against Indianapolis Colts's B+-graded run defense
DHOU Run GamevsIND Run DefB+CHOU O-LinevsIND Pass RushB
Sun, Jan 4BALBAL8–9@PITPIT10–7Final BAL 24–26 PIT

Offense EPA / play

BAL+0.06
PIT+0.01

Defense EPA / play

BAL+0.002
PIT−0.010

What to watch

D.Henry and Baltimore Ravens's run game (A-, +0.038 EPA/rush) against Pittsburgh Steelers's C+-graded run defense
APIT WR/TEvsBAL CoverageC+A-BAL Run GamevsPIT Run DefC+
Sun, Jan 4ARIARI3–14@LARLAR12–5Final ARI 20–37 LAR

Offense EPA / play

ARI−0.02
LAR+0.14

Defense EPA / play

ARI+0.120
LAR−0.030

Injury impact on the line

LARMario WilliamsRBIRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 LAR

What to watch

K.Williams and Los Angeles Rams's run game (A, +0.021 EPA/rush) against Arizona Cardinals's C-graded run defense
Los Angeles Rams is a heavy favorite (12.9-point rating gap) — Arizona Cardinals needs a major upset
ALAR Run GamevsARI Run DefCA-LAR QBvsARI CoverageC
Sun, Jan 4GBGB9–7-1@MINMIN9–8Final GB 3–16 MIN

Offense EPA / play

GB+0.14
MIN−0.12

Defense EPA / play

GB+0.065
MIN−0.121

What to watch

Green Bay Packers's pass protection (B, 5.0% sack rate) must handle Minnesota Vikings's A-graded pass rush
Minnesota Vikings's special teams (A-) could create a field position edge against Green Bay Packers's struggling unit (C)
BGB O-LinevsMIN Pass RushA
Sun, Jan 4WASWAS5–12@PHIPHI11–6Final WAS 24–17 PHI

Offense EPA / play

WAS+0.01
PHI+0.04

Defense EPA / play

WAS+0.202
PHI−0.105

Injury impact on the line

WASMarcus MariotaQBStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 WAS

What to watch

J.Hurts (B+, 0.103 EPA/db) faces Washington Commanders's C-graded coverage
Philadelphia Eagles is a heavy favorite (9.4-point rating gap) — Washington Commanders needs a major upset
DWAS WR/TEvsPHI CoverageA-B+PHI QBvsWAS CoverageC
Sun, Jan 4TENTEN3–14@JAXJAX13–4Final TEN 7–41 JAX

Offense EPA / play

TEN−0.11
JAX+0.04

Defense EPA / play

TEN+0.083
JAX−0.104

What to watch

C.Ward (D, -0.159 EPA/db) faces Jacksonville Jaguars's A-graded coverage
Jacksonville Jaguars is a heavy favorite (13.0-point rating gap) — Tennessee Titans needs a major upset
DTEN QBvsJAX CoverageACTEN WR/TEvsJAX CoverageA
Sun, Jan 4NONO6–11@ATLATL8–9Final NO 17–19 ATL

Offense EPA / play

NO−0.04
ATL+0.02

Defense EPA / play

NO−0.085
ATL+0.018

Injury impact on the line

NOAlvin KamaraRBStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 NO
ATLMichael Penix Jr.QBIRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 ATL

What to watch

T.Shough (C, 0.002 EPA/db) faces Atlanta Falcons's B+-graded coverage
Toss-up: only 0.7 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
DNO WR/TEvsATL CoverageB+CNO QBvsATL CoverageB+
Sun, Jan 4DALDAL7–9-1@NYGNYG4–13Final DAL 17–34 NYG

Offense EPA / play

DAL+0.11
NYG+0.04

Defense EPA / play

DAL+0.182
NYG+0.074

Injury impact on the line

DALJavonte WilliamsRBIRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 DAL

What to watch

J.Williams and Dallas Cowboys's run game (B+, -0.008 EPA/rush) against New York Giants's D-graded run defense
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (New York Giants +0.084, Dallas Cowboys +0.212 pass EPA)
Toss-up: only 0.3 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
B+DAL Run GamevsNYG Run DefDADAL O-LinevsNYG Pass RushC
Sun, Jan 4KCKC6–11@LVLV3–14Final KC 12–14 LV

Offense EPA / play

KC−0.01
LV−0.20

Defense EPA / play

KC+0.013
LV+0.069

Injury impact on the line

KCPatrick MahomesQBIRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 KC
LVGeno SmithQBStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 LV

What to watch

A.Jeanty and Las Vegas Raiders's run game (D, -0.306 EPA/rush) against Kansas City Chiefs's B+-graded run defense
DLV Run GamevsKC Run DefB+DLV O-LinevsKC Pass RushB
Sun, Jan 4NYJNYJ3–14@BUFBUF12–5Final NYJ 8–35 BUF

Offense EPA / play

NYJ−0.17
BUF+0.11

Defense EPA / play

NYJ+0.170
BUF−0.014

Injury impact on the line

NYJJustin FieldsQBIRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread−2.5 NYJ
NYJBreece HallRBStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 NYJ

What to watch

J.Allen (A, 0.236 EPA/db) faces New York Jets's D-graded coverage
Buffalo Bills is a heavy favorite (16.5-point rating gap) — New York Jets needs a major upset
ABUF WR/TEvsNYJ CoverageDABUF QBvsNYJ CoverageD
Sun, Jan 4CLECLE5–12@CINCIN6–11Final CLE 20–18 CIN

Offense EPA / play

CLE−0.20
CIN+0.06

Defense EPA / play

CLE−0.087
CIN+0.104

Injury impact on the line

CLEQuinshon JudkinsRBIRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread−1.5 CLE

What to watch

Strength vs strength: Cincinnati Bengals's A-graded pass protection vs Cleveland Browns's A-graded pass rush
C+CIN WR/TEvsCLE CoverageB+B-CIN QBvsCLE CoverageB+
Sat, Jan 3CARCAR8–9@TBTB8–9Final CAR 14–16 TB

Offense EPA / play

CAR−0.06
TB−0.00

Defense EPA / play

CAR+0.069
TB+0.045

What to watch

R.Dowdle and Carolina Panthers's run game (B-, -0.076 EPA/rush) against Tampa Bay Buccaneers's A-graded run defense
B-CAR Run GamevsTB Run DefABTB O-LinevsCAR Pass RushC

Vegas lines shown for context only — BBMI does not make NFL betting recommendations. Learn why.