NFL Analytics · Weekly Preview

Week 18 Games

Matchup analytics and team ratings not picks

SEA
SEA
14-3
1st · +9.4
@
SF
12-5
SF
+3.7 · 9th
SEA 61%Win Probability39% SF
S.Darnold (A-, 0.163 EPA/db) faces San Francisco 49ers's C-graded coverage
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (San Francisco 49ers +0.206, Seattle Seahawks +0.179 pass EPA)
ASEA WR/TEvsSF CoverageC
A-SEA QBvsSF CoverageC
SEA Injuries
Cooper Kupp WR Limited (Not injury related - resting player)
Charles Cross T Out (Hamstring)
Coby Bryant S Doubtful (Knee)
Josh Jones T Questionable (Ankle)
SF Injuries
George Kittle TE Questionable (Ankle)
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable (Knee)
Trent Williams T Questionable (Hamstring)
Keion White DE Questionable (Groin)
Spread: SF +2.5Total: 47.5
Final: 13-3
LAC
LAC
11-6
15th · +0.9
@
DEN
14-3
DEN
+4.6 · 6th
LAC 8%Win Probability92% DEN
Los Angeles Chargers's pass protection (C, 8.4% sack rate) must handle Denver Broncos's A-graded pass rush
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (Denver Broncos +0.112, Los Angeles Chargers +0.082 pass EPA)
CLAC O-LinevsDEN Pass RushA
CLAC Run GamevsDEN Run DefA
LAC Injuries
Omarion Hampton RB Out (Ankle)
Kimani Vidal RB Questionable (Neck)
Justin Herbert QB DNP (Hand)
Nikko Reed CB Out (Hamstring)
DEN Injuries
Dre Greenlaw LB Out (Hamstring)
Karene Reid LB Out (Hamstring)
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable (Hip)
Injury Impact
LAC
Justin Herbert (QB)Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
DEN
Bo Nix (QB)IRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
J.K. Dobbins (RB)IRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: DEN -13.5Total: 30.5
Final: 3-19
DET
DET
9-8
11th · +2.7
@
CHI
11-6
CHI
+2.4 · 12th
DET 84%Win Probability16% CHI
D.Swift and Chicago Bears's run game (A, +0.011 EPA/rush) against Detroit Lions's C-graded run defense
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (Chicago Bears +0.125, Detroit Lions +0.185 pass EPA)
Toss-up: only 0.3 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
ACHI Run GamevsDET Run DefC
ACHI O-LinevsDET Pass RushB-
DET Injuries
Alex Anzalone LB Out (Concussion)
Trystan Colon G Out (Wrist)
Alim McNeill DT Out (Abdomen)
Penei Sewell T Out (Ankle)
CHI Injuries
Rome Odunze WR Questionable (Foot)
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE Out (Concussion)
Nick McCloud CB Questionable (Illness)
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable (Illness)
Spread: CHI +9.5Total: 35.5
Final: 19-16
MIA
MIA
7-10
25th · -2.7
@
NE
14-3
NE
+7.1 · 3rd
MIA 12%Win Probability89% NE
D.Maye (A, 0.318 EPA/db) faces Miami Dolphins's D-graded coverage
New England Patriots is a heavy favorite (9.8-point rating gap) — Miami Dolphins needs a major upset
ANE QBvsMIA CoverageD
A-NE WR/TEvsMIA CoverageD
MIA Injuries
De'Von Achane RB Doubtful (Shoulder)
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable (Ribs)
Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out (Calf)
Jason Sanders K Out (Hip)
NE Injuries
Stefon Diggs WR Limited (Not injury related - resting player)
Hunter Henry TE Limited (Knee)
Robert Spillane LB Out (Ankle)
Harold Landry III LB Out (Knee)
Injury Impact
MIA
De'Von Achane (RB)Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: NE -11.5Total: 47.5
Final: 10-38
IND
IND
8-9
18th · -0.5
@
HOU
12-5
HOU
+4.5 · 7th
IND 14%Win Probability87% HOU
W.Marks and Houston Texans's run game (D, -0.151 EPA/rush) against Indianapolis Colts's B+-graded run defense
DHOU Run GamevsIND Run DefB+
CHOU O-LinevsIND Pass RushB
IND Injuries
Sauce Gardner CB Out (Calf)
Daniel Scott S Out (Knee)
Will Mallory TE Out (Lung)
Anthony Richardson QB Out (Eye)
HOU Injuries
Dalton Schultz TE DNP (Not injury related - personal matter)
Kamari Lassiter CB Out (Ankle)
Jamal Hill LB Out (Calf)
Trent Brown T Questionable (Ankle)
Injury Impact
IND
Daniel Jones (QB)IRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: HOU -10.5Total: 38.5
IndoorFinal: 30-38
BAL
BAL
8-9
10th · +2.7
@
PIT
10-7
PIT
+0.4 · 16th
BAL 65%Win Probability35% PIT
D.Henry and Baltimore Ravens's run game (A-, +0.038 EPA/rush) against Pittsburgh Steelers's C+-graded run defense
APIT WR/TEvsBAL CoverageC+
A-BAL Run GamevsPIT Run DefC+
BAL Injuries
Rashod Bateman WR Questionable (Illness)
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable (Illness)
Taven Bryan DT Questionable (Knee)
Ronnie Stanley T DNP (Knee)
PIT Injuries
Isaac Seumalo G DNP (Triceps)
Spread: PIT +3.5Total: 41.5
Final: 24-26
ARI
ARI
3-14
29th · -5.8
@
LAR
12-5
LAR
+7.1 · 2nd
ARI 5%Win Probability95% LAR
K.Williams and Los Angeles Rams's run game (A, +0.021 EPA/rush) against Arizona Cardinals's C-graded run defense
Los Angeles Rams is a heavy favorite (12.9-point rating gap) — Arizona Cardinals needs a major upset
ALAR Run GamevsARI Run DefC
A-LAR QBvsARI CoverageC
ARI Injuries
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR DNP (Foot)
Evan Brown G Out (Not injury related - personal matter)
Josh Sweat LB Questionable (Ankle)
Calais Campbell DT DNP (Not injury related - resting player)
LAR Injuries
Davante Adams WR Questionable (Hamstring)
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable (Ankle)
Kyren Williams RB Questionable (Ankle)
Blake Corum RB Questionable (Ankle)
Injury Impact
LAR
Mario Williams (RB)IRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: LAR -16.5Total: 44.5
IndoorFinal: 20-37
GB
GB
9-7-1
13th · +1.4
@
MIN
9-8
MIN
-0.2 · 17th
GB 15%Win Probability86% MIN
Green Bay Packers's pass protection (B, 5.0% sack rate) must handle Minnesota Vikings's A-graded pass rush
Minnesota Vikings's special teams (A-) could create a field position edge against Green Bay Packers's struggling unit (C)
BGB O-LinevsMIN Pass RushA
GB Injuries
Dontayvion Wicks WR Doubtful (Concussion)
Malik Willis QB Questionable (Shoulder)
Nick Niemann LB Out (Pectoral)
Donovan Jennings G Out (Throat)
MIN Injuries
Aaron Jones RB Out (Hip)
T.J. Hockenson TE Out (Shoulder)
Gavin Bartholomew TE Out (Back)
Myles Price WR Out (Ankle)
Spread: MIN -10Total: 37.5
IndoorFinal: 3-16
WAS
WAS
5-12
28th · -5.2
@
PHI
11-6
PHI
+4.2 · 8th
WAS 61%Win Probability39% PHI
J.Hurts (B+, 0.103 EPA/db) faces Washington Commanders's C-graded coverage
Philadelphia Eagles is a heavy favorite (9.4-point rating gap) — Washington Commanders needs a major upset
DWAS WR/TEvsPHI CoverageA-
B+PHI QBvsWAS CoverageC
WAS Injuries
Marcus Mariota QB Out (Hand)
Jayden Daniels QB Out (Elbow)
Laremy Tunsil T Out (Oblique)
Chris Paul G Questionable (Illness)
PHI Injuries
Dallas Goedert TE Out (Knee)
Lane Johnson T Out (Foot)
Marcus Epps S Out (Concussion)
Jaelan Phillips LB Out (Ankle)
Injury Impact
WAS
Marcus Mariota (QB)Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: PHI +2.5Total: 36.5
Final: 24-17
TEN
TEN
3-14
31st · -8.0
@
JAX
13-4
JAX
+5.0 · 5th
TEN 8%Win Probability92% JAX
C.Ward (D, -0.159 EPA/db) faces Jacksonville Jaguars's A-graded coverage
Jacksonville Jaguars is a heavy favorite (13.0-point rating gap) — Tennessee Titans needs a major upset
DTEN QBvsJAX CoverageA
CTEN WR/TEvsJAX CoverageA
TEN Injuries
Van Jefferson WR Out (Forearm)
Gunnar Helm TE Out (Toe)
Arden Key LB Out (Hip)
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out (Achilles)
JAX Injuries
Patrick Mekari G Out (Back)
Jalen McLeod LB Out (Ankle)
Ezra Cleveland G Limited (Shoulder)
Greg Newsome II CB Limited (Shoulder)
Spread: JAX -13.5Total: 47.5
Final: 7-41
NO
NO
6-11
22nd · -1.9
@
ATL
8-9
ATL
-1.2 · 19th
NO 35%Win Probability65% ATL
T.Shough (C, 0.002 EPA/db) faces Atlanta Falcons's B+-graded coverage
Toss-up: only 0.7 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
DNO WR/TEvsATL CoverageB+
CNO QBvsATL CoverageB+
NO Injuries
Alvin Kamara RB Out (Knee)
Chris Olave WR Out (Illness)
Spencer Rattler QB Questionable (Finger)
Nathan Shepherd DT Out (Ankle)
ATL Injuries
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable (Knee)
Kyle Pitts TE Questionable (Knee)
Drake London WR Questionable (Knee)
Ronnie Harrison LB Out (Illness)
Injury Impact
NO
Alvin Kamara (RB)Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. (QB)IRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: ATL -3.5Total: 43.5
IndoorFinal: 17-19
DAL
DAL
7-9-1
21st · -1.9
@
NYG
4-13
NYG
-2.2 · 24th
DAL 65%Win Probability35% NYG
J.Williams and Dallas Cowboys's run game (B+, -0.008 EPA/rush) against New York Giants's D-graded run defense
Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (New York Giants +0.084, Dallas Cowboys +0.212 pass EPA)
Toss-up: only 0.3 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
B+DAL Run GamevsNYG Run DefD
ADAL O-LinevsNYG Pass RushC
DAL Injuries
Javonte Williams RB Out (Shoulder)
Malik Davis RB Out (Calf)
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out (Concussion)
TJ Bass G Out (Knee)
NYG Injuries
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out (Rib)
Theo Johnson TE Out (Illness)
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Out (Ankle)
Jevon Holland S Out (Knee)
Injury Impact
DAL
Javonte Williams (RB)IRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: NYG +3.5Total: 49.5
Final: 17-34
KC
KC
6-11
14th · +0.9
@
LV
3-14
LV
-5.9 · 30th
KC 39%Win Probability61% LV
A.Jeanty and Las Vegas Raiders's run game (D, -0.306 EPA/rush) against Kansas City Chiefs's B+-graded run defense
DLV Run GamevsKC Run DefB+
DLV O-LinevsKC Pass RushB
KC Injuries
Trey Smith G Out (Ankle)
Xavier Worthy WR Doubtful (Illness)
Isiah Pacheco RB Questionable (Not injury related - resting player)
Jake Briningstool TE Out (Hamstring)
LV Injuries
Geno Smith QB Out (Ankle)
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable (Knee)
Adam Butler DT Out (Biceps)
Dylan Parham G Out (Illness)
Injury Impact
KC
Patrick Mahomes (QB)IRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
LV
Geno Smith (QB)Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: LV -2.5Total: 25.5
IndoorFinal: 12-14
NYJ
NYJ
3-14
32nd · -10.9
@
BUF
12-5
BUF
+5.6 · 4th
NYJ 21%Win Probability79% BUF
J.Allen (A, 0.236 EPA/db) faces New York Jets's D-graded coverage
Buffalo Bills is a heavy favorite (16.5-point rating gap) — New York Jets needs a major upset
ABUF WR/TEvsNYJ CoverageD
ABUF QBvsNYJ CoverageD
NYJ Injuries
Breece Hall RB Out (Knee)
Isaiah Davis RB Out (Concussion)
Mason Taylor TE Out (Neck)
Tyrod Taylor QB Questionable (Knee)
BUF Injuries
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable (Knee)
Josh Allen QB Limited (Foot)
Jordan Poyer S Out (Hamstring)
DaQuan Jones DT Out (Calf)
Injury Impact
NYJ
Justin Fields (QB)IRStarting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Breece Hall (RB)Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: BUF -7.5Total: 37.5
Final: 8-35
CLE
CLE
5-12
26th · -4.4
@
CIN
6-11
CIN
-1.3 · 20th
CLE 21%Win Probability79% CIN
Strength vs strength: Cincinnati Bengals's A-graded pass protection vs Cleveland Browns's A-graded pass rush
C+CIN WR/TEvsCLE CoverageB+
B-CIN QBvsCLE CoverageB+
CLE Injuries
David Njoku TE Out (Knee)
Harold Fannin Jr. TE Out (Groin)
Winston Reid LB Out (Back)
Carson Schwesinger LB Out (Ankle)
CIN Injuries
Joseph Ossai DE Out (Ankle)
Charlie Jones WR Out (Ankle)
Josh Newton CB Out (Hamstring)
Matt Lee C Out (Knee)
Injury Impact
CLE
Quinshon Judkins (RB)IRStarting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: CIN -7.5Total: 44.5
Final: 20-18
CAR
CAR
8-9
27th · -4.7
@
TB
8-9
TB
-1.9 · 23rd
CAR 27%Win Probability73% TB
R.Dowdle and Carolina Panthers's run game (B-, -0.076 EPA/rush) against Tampa Bay Buccaneers's A-graded run defense
B-CAR Run GamevsTB Run DefA
BTB O-LinevsCAR Pass RushC
CAR Injuries
Robert Rochell CB Out (Concussion)
Claudin Cherelus LB Out (Calf)
David Moore WR Questionable (Elbow)
Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable (Hamstring)
TB Injuries
Mike Evans WR DNP (Not injury related - resting player)
Anthony Nelson LB Out (Knee)
Jamel Dean CB Out (Shoulder)
Calijah Kancey DT Questionable (Pectoral)
Spread: TB -5.5Total: 39.5
Final: 14-16
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