NFL Analytics · Weekly Preview
Week 18 Games
Matchup analytics and team ratings — not picks
SEA 61%Win Probability39% SF
◆S.Darnold (A-, 0.163 EPA/db) faces San Francisco 49ers's C-graded coverage
○Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (San Francisco 49ers +0.206, Seattle Seahawks +0.179 pass EPA)
ASEA WR/TEvsSF CoverageC
A-SEA QBvsSF CoverageC
SEA Injuries
★ Cooper Kupp WR — Limited (Not injury related - resting player)
Charles Cross T — Out (Hamstring)
Coby Bryant S — Doubtful (Knee)
Josh Jones T — Questionable (Ankle)
SF Injuries
★ George Kittle TE — Questionable (Ankle)
★ Ricky Pearsall WR — Questionable (Knee)
Trent Williams T — Questionable (Hamstring)
Keion White DE — Questionable (Groin)
Spread: SF +2.5Total: 47.5
Final: 13-3
LAC 8%Win Probability92% DEN
◆Los Angeles Chargers's pass protection (C, 8.4% sack rate) must handle Denver Broncos's A-graded pass rush
○Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (Denver Broncos +0.112, Los Angeles Chargers +0.082 pass EPA)
CLAC O-LinevsDEN Pass RushA
CLAC Run GamevsDEN Run DefA
LAC Injuries
★ Omarion Hampton RB — Out (Ankle)
★ Kimani Vidal RB — Questionable (Neck)
★ Justin Herbert QB — DNP (Hand)
Nikko Reed CB — Out (Hamstring)
DEN Injuries
Dre Greenlaw LB — Out (Hamstring)
Karene Reid LB — Out (Hamstring)
John Franklin-Myers DE — Questionable (Hip)
Injury Impact
LAC
Justin Herbert (QB) — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
DEN
Bo Nix (QB)IR — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
J.K. Dobbins (RB)IR — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: DEN -13.5Total: 30.5
Final: 3-19
DET 84%Win Probability16% CHI
◆D.Swift and Chicago Bears's run game (A, +0.011 EPA/rush) against Detroit Lions's C-graded run defense
○Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (Chicago Bears +0.125, Detroit Lions +0.185 pass EPA)
○Toss-up: only 0.3 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
ACHI Run GamevsDET Run DefC
ACHI O-LinevsDET Pass RushB-
DET Injuries
Alex Anzalone LB — Out (Concussion)
Trystan Colon G — Out (Wrist)
Alim McNeill DT — Out (Abdomen)
Penei Sewell T — Out (Ankle)
CHI Injuries
★ Rome Odunze WR — Questionable (Foot)
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE — Out (Concussion)
Nick McCloud CB — Questionable (Illness)
Jaquan Brisker S — Questionable (Illness)
Spread: CHI +9.5Total: 35.5
Final: 19-16
MIA 12%Win Probability89% NE
◆D.Maye (A, 0.318 EPA/db) faces Miami Dolphins's D-graded coverage
○New England Patriots is a heavy favorite (9.8-point rating gap) — Miami Dolphins needs a major upset
ANE QBvsMIA CoverageD
A-NE WR/TEvsMIA CoverageD
MIA Injuries
★ De'Von Achane RB — Doubtful (Shoulder)
★ Jaylen Waddle WR — Questionable (Ribs)
Minkah Fitzpatrick S — Out (Calf)
Jason Sanders K — Out (Hip)
NE Injuries
★ Stefon Diggs WR — Limited (Not injury related - resting player)
★ Hunter Henry TE — Limited (Knee)
Robert Spillane LB — Out (Ankle)
Harold Landry III LB — Out (Knee)
Injury Impact
MIA
De'Von Achane (RB) — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: NE -11.5Total: 47.5
Final: 10-38
IND 14%Win Probability87% HOU
◆W.Marks and Houston Texans's run game (D, -0.151 EPA/rush) against Indianapolis Colts's B+-graded run defense
DHOU Run GamevsIND Run DefB+
CHOU O-LinevsIND Pass RushB
IND Injuries
Sauce Gardner CB — Out (Calf)
Daniel Scott S — Out (Knee)
Will Mallory TE — Out (Lung)
Anthony Richardson QB — Out (Eye)
HOU Injuries
★ Dalton Schultz TE — DNP (Not injury related - personal matter)
Kamari Lassiter CB — Out (Ankle)
Jamal Hill LB — Out (Calf)
Trent Brown T — Questionable (Ankle)
Injury Impact
IND
Daniel Jones (QB)IR — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: HOU -10.5Total: 38.5
IndoorFinal: 30-38
BAL 65%Win Probability35% PIT
◆D.Henry and Baltimore Ravens's run game (A-, +0.038 EPA/rush) against Pittsburgh Steelers's C+-graded run defense
APIT WR/TEvsBAL CoverageC+
A-BAL Run GamevsPIT Run DefC+
BAL Injuries
★ Rashod Bateman WR — Questionable (Illness)
Marlon Humphrey CB — Questionable (Illness)
Taven Bryan DT — Questionable (Knee)
Ronnie Stanley T — DNP (Knee)
PIT Injuries
Isaac Seumalo G — DNP (Triceps)
Spread: PIT +3.5Total: 41.5
Final: 24-26
ARI 5%Win Probability95% LAR
◆K.Williams and Los Angeles Rams's run game (A, +0.021 EPA/rush) against Arizona Cardinals's C-graded run defense
○Los Angeles Rams is a heavy favorite (12.9-point rating gap) — Arizona Cardinals needs a major upset
ALAR Run GamevsARI Run DefC
A-LAR QBvsARI CoverageC
ARI Injuries
★ Marvin Harrison Jr. WR — DNP (Foot)
Evan Brown G — Out (Not injury related - personal matter)
Josh Sweat LB — Questionable (Ankle)
Calais Campbell DT — DNP (Not injury related - resting player)
LAR Injuries
★ Davante Adams WR — Questionable (Hamstring)
★ Tyler Higbee TE — Questionable (Ankle)
★ Kyren Williams RB — Questionable (Ankle)
★ Blake Corum RB — Questionable (Ankle)
Injury Impact
LAR
Mario Williams (RB)IR — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: LAR -16.5Total: 44.5
IndoorFinal: 20-37
GB 15%Win Probability86% MIN
◆Green Bay Packers's pass protection (B, 5.0% sack rate) must handle Minnesota Vikings's A-graded pass rush
○Minnesota Vikings's special teams (A-) could create a field position edge against Green Bay Packers's struggling unit (C)
BGB O-LinevsMIN Pass RushA
GB Injuries
★ Dontayvion Wicks WR — Doubtful (Concussion)
★ Malik Willis QB — Questionable (Shoulder)
Nick Niemann LB — Out (Pectoral)
Donovan Jennings G — Out (Throat)
MIN Injuries
★ Aaron Jones RB — Out (Hip)
★ T.J. Hockenson TE — Out (Shoulder)
Gavin Bartholomew TE — Out (Back)
Myles Price WR — Out (Ankle)
Spread: MIN -10Total: 37.5
IndoorFinal: 3-16
WAS 61%Win Probability39% PHI
◆J.Hurts (B+, 0.103 EPA/db) faces Washington Commanders's C-graded coverage
○Philadelphia Eagles is a heavy favorite (9.4-point rating gap) — Washington Commanders needs a major upset
DWAS WR/TEvsPHI CoverageA-
B+PHI QBvsWAS CoverageC
WAS Injuries
★ Marcus Mariota QB — Out (Hand)
★ Jayden Daniels QB — Out (Elbow)
Laremy Tunsil T — Out (Oblique)
Chris Paul G — Questionable (Illness)
PHI Injuries
★ Dallas Goedert TE — Out (Knee)
Lane Johnson T — Out (Foot)
Marcus Epps S — Out (Concussion)
Jaelan Phillips LB — Out (Ankle)
Injury Impact
WAS
Marcus Mariota (QB) — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: PHI +2.5Total: 36.5
Final: 24-17
TEN 8%Win Probability92% JAX
◆C.Ward (D, -0.159 EPA/db) faces Jacksonville Jaguars's A-graded coverage
○Jacksonville Jaguars is a heavy favorite (13.0-point rating gap) — Tennessee Titans needs a major upset
DTEN QBvsJAX CoverageA
CTEN WR/TEvsJAX CoverageA
TEN Injuries
★ Van Jefferson WR — Out (Forearm)
★ Gunnar Helm TE — Out (Toe)
Arden Key LB — Out (Hip)
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB — Out (Achilles)
JAX Injuries
Patrick Mekari G — Out (Back)
Jalen McLeod LB — Out (Ankle)
Ezra Cleveland G — Limited (Shoulder)
Greg Newsome II CB — Limited (Shoulder)
Spread: JAX -13.5Total: 47.5
Final: 7-41
NO 35%Win Probability65% ATL
◆T.Shough (C, 0.002 EPA/db) faces Atlanta Falcons's B+-graded coverage
○Toss-up: only 0.7 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
DNO WR/TEvsATL CoverageB+
CNO QBvsATL CoverageB+
NO Injuries
★ Alvin Kamara RB — Out (Knee)
★ Chris Olave WR — Out (Illness)
★ Spencer Rattler QB — Questionable (Finger)
Nathan Shepherd DT — Out (Ankle)
ATL Injuries
★ Darnell Mooney WR — Questionable (Knee)
★ Kyle Pitts TE — Questionable (Knee)
★ Drake London WR — Questionable (Knee)
Ronnie Harrison LB — Out (Illness)
Injury Impact
NO
Alvin Kamara (RB) — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. (QB)IR — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: ATL -3.5Total: 43.5
IndoorFinal: 17-19
DAL 65%Win Probability35% NYG
◆J.Williams and Dallas Cowboys's run game (B+, -0.008 EPA/rush) against New York Giants's D-graded run defense
○Shootout potential: both teams are pass-dependent (New York Giants +0.084, Dallas Cowboys +0.212 pass EPA)
○Toss-up: only 0.3 points separate these teams in BBMI Composite
B+DAL Run GamevsNYG Run DefD
ADAL O-LinevsNYG Pass RushC
DAL Injuries
★ Javonte Williams RB — Out (Shoulder)
★ Malik Davis RB — Out (Calf)
DeMarvion Overshown LB — Out (Concussion)
TJ Bass G — Out (Knee)
NYG Injuries
★ Wan'Dale Robinson WR — Out (Rib)
★ Theo Johnson TE — Out (Illness)
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT — Out (Ankle)
Jevon Holland S — Out (Knee)
Injury Impact
DAL
Javonte Williams (RB)IR — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: NYG +3.5Total: 49.5
Final: 17-34
KC 39%Win Probability61% LV
◆A.Jeanty and Las Vegas Raiders's run game (D, -0.306 EPA/rush) against Kansas City Chiefs's B+-graded run defense
DLV Run GamevsKC Run DefB+
DLV O-LinevsKC Pass RushB
KC Injuries
★ Trey Smith G — Out (Ankle)
★ Xavier Worthy WR — Doubtful (Illness)
★ Isiah Pacheco RB — Questionable (Not injury related - resting player)
Jake Briningstool TE — Out (Hamstring)
LV Injuries
★ Geno Smith QB — Out (Ankle)
★ Raheem Mostert RB — Questionable (Knee)
Adam Butler DT — Out (Biceps)
Dylan Parham G — Out (Illness)
Injury Impact
KC
Patrick Mahomes (QB)IR — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
LV
Geno Smith (QB) — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Spread: LV -2.5Total: 25.5
IndoorFinal: 12-14
NYJ 21%Win Probability79% BUF
◆J.Allen (A, 0.236 EPA/db) faces New York Jets's D-graded coverage
○Buffalo Bills is a heavy favorite (16.5-point rating gap) — New York Jets needs a major upset
ABUF WR/TEvsNYJ CoverageD
ABUF QBvsNYJ CoverageD
NYJ Injuries
★ Breece Hall RB — Out (Knee)
★ Isaiah Davis RB — Out (Concussion)
★ Mason Taylor TE — Out (Neck)
★ Tyrod Taylor QB — Questionable (Knee)
BUF Injuries
★ Dalton Kincaid TE — Questionable (Knee)
★ Josh Allen QB — Limited (Foot)
Jordan Poyer S — Out (Hamstring)
DaQuan Jones DT — Out (Calf)
Injury Impact
NYJ
Justin Fields (QB)IR — Starting QB out: historically ~2.5 pts on the spread
Breece Hall (RB) — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: BUF -7.5Total: 37.5
Final: 8-35
CLE 21%Win Probability79% CIN
◆Strength vs strength: Cincinnati Bengals's A-graded pass protection vs Cleveland Browns's A-graded pass rush
C+CIN WR/TEvsCLE CoverageB+
B-CIN QBvsCLE CoverageB+
CLE Injuries
★ David Njoku TE — Out (Knee)
★ Harold Fannin Jr. TE — Out (Groin)
Winston Reid LB — Out (Back)
Carson Schwesinger LB — Out (Ankle)
CIN Injuries
Joseph Ossai DE — Out (Ankle)
Charlie Jones WR — Out (Ankle)
Josh Newton CB — Out (Hamstring)
Matt Lee C — Out (Knee)
Injury Impact
CLE
Quinshon Judkins (RB)IR — Starting RB out: historically ~1.5 pts on the spread
Spread: CIN -7.5Total: 44.5
Final: 20-18
CAR 27%Win Probability73% TB
◆R.Dowdle and Carolina Panthers's run game (B-, -0.076 EPA/rush) against Tampa Bay Buccaneers's A-graded run defense
B-CAR Run GamevsTB Run DefA
BTB O-LinevsCAR Pass RushC
CAR Injuries
Robert Rochell CB — Out (Concussion)
Claudin Cherelus LB — Out (Calf)
David Moore WR — Questionable (Elbow)
Tershawn Wharton DT — Questionable (Hamstring)
TB Injuries
★ Mike Evans WR — DNP (Not injury related - resting player)
Anthony Nelson LB — Out (Knee)
Jamel Dean CB — Out (Shoulder)
Calijah Kancey DT — Questionable (Pectoral)
Spread: TB -5.5Total: 39.5
Final: 14-16
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