← Model performance
Model performance
NFL
NFL · 2023–25 walk-forward · 816 games · out-of-sample on completed seasons
Walk-forward, out of sampleTOTALS · PREMIUM 4–6 · PREMIUM ★ 6+
59.3%54‑37
91 decided · Decided picks · 95% CI 49.1–68.9%
40%break-even 52.4%80%
40%50%60%70%80%
2025W5W9W13W18
ROI · flat 1u at −110+13.3%
Units won · flat 1u+12.1u
ROI · flat 1u at −110
NFL · 2025 · walk-forward · out-of-sample on a completed season
| BY WEEK | W | Decided | Rate | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| W2 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | 72.7% |
| W3 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | 62.5% |
| W4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 58.8% |
| W5 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | 61.9% |
| W6 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | 61.5% |
| W7 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | 64.5% |
| W8 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 65.6% |
| W9 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | 63.9% |
| W10 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | 61.0% |
| W11 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | 59.6% |
| W12 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| W13 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | 60.7% |
| W14 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | 62.3% |
| W15 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | 59.7% |
| W16 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | 61.3% |
| W17 | 2 | 7 | 28.6% | 58.5% |
| W18 | 6 | 9 | 66.7% | 59.3% |
AGAINST THE SPREAD · PREMIUM 1–4 · PREMIUM ★ 4–5
50.9%87‑84
171 decided · Decided picks · 95% CI 43.4–58.3%
40%break-even 52.4%80%
40%50%60%70%
2025W5W9W13W18
ROI · flat 1u at −110-2.8%
Units won · flat 1u-4.8u
ROI · flat 1u at −110
NFL · 2025 · walk-forward · out-of-sample on a completed season
| BY WEEK | W | Decided | Rate | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| W2 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | 58.8% |
| W3 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | 57.1% |
| W4 | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | 56.1% |
| W5 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | 51.9% |
| W6 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | 52.5% |
| W7 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | 51.5% |
| W8 | 6 | 10 | 60.0% | 52.6% |
| W9 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | 51.7% |
| W10 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | 51.6% |
| W11 | 2 | 7 | 28.6% | 50.0% |
| W12 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | 52.2% |
| W13 | 5 | 13 | 38.5% | 50.8% |
| W14 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | 51.9% |
| W15 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | 53.5% |
| W16 | 3 | 12 | 25.0% | 51.3% |
| W17 | 4 | 10 | 40.0% | 50.6% |
| W18 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | 50.9% |
BBMI vs Vegas — forecast accuracy
Whose number landed closer to the result, over 816 games (walk-forward graded (2023–2025)). This is not a betting record: a closer forecast is not a won bet, and nothing here is a pick.
Share of games each projection’s implied winner was right
BBMI 66.6%Vegas 71.0%
Vegas by 4.4 pts
Probability accuracy — rewards honest odds, not bold ones
BBMI 0.215Vegas —
Vegas not published
Projected home margin vs actual margin, in pts
BBMI 10.00 ptsVegas 9.30 pts
Vegas by 0.70 pts
Projected total vs actual combined score, in pts
BBMI 10.28 ptsVegas 9.45 pts
Vegas by 0.82 pts
Calibration
When the model says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Predicted against actual, by band.
< 35%
26% → 28%
147 games
35–45%
40% → 40%
134 games
45–55%
50% → 47%
139 games
55–65%
60% → 62%
153 games
≥ 65%
75% → 77%
243 games
Brier score 0.2149 over 816 graded games. Lower is better; 0.25 is what a coin flip scores.