AFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Houston Texans
#14
BBMI rank
+2.6
Rating
9.8–7.2
Proj record
67%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
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Cincinnati Bengals
SUN SEP 20 • 12:00 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Houston Texans
—
Model line
-3.0
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs BUFL 31–36#3+1.048%
vs BUFSep 20vs CINSun 12:00 PM#7-3.0
vs CINSep 27
at INDSun 12:00 PM#21-1.5
at INDOct 4
vs DALSun 12:00 PM#16-2.5
vs DALOct 11
at TENSun 12:00 PM#27-3.5
at TENOct 18
at JAXSun 8:30 AM#17-1.5
at JAXOct 25
vs NYGSun 12:00 PM#24-5.5
vs NYGNov 8
at LACSun 3:05 PM#11+2.5
at LACNov 15
at CLESun 12:00 PM#30-4.5
at CLENov 19vs INDThu 7:15 PM#21-4.5
vs INDNov 29
vs BALSun 12:00 PM#2-1.0
vs BALDec 6
at PITSun 7:20 PM#19-1.5
at PITDec 13
at WASSun 12:00 PM#23-1.5
at WASDec 20vs JAXSun 12:00 PM#17-3.0
vs JAXDec 24
at PHIThu 7:15 PM#9+2.5
at PHIJan 4
at GBMon 7:15 PM#12+2.5
at GBJan 10vs TENSun 12:00 PM#27-7.0
vs TENRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the AFC South59%
Make the playoffs67%
No. 1 seed (bye)7%
Reach the Super Bowl8%
Win the Super Bowl4%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims9.8
678910111213
Middle half of the simulations: 8 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 7 to 12. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.012#24
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.115#3
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.091#15
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.185#30
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.114#1
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.137#3
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.2#14
Projected wins9.8#12
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Texans
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on HOU
0–1
Picks against
-1.0u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.