NFC NORTH • 2026 SEASON
Detroit Lions
#9
BBMI rank
+3.0
Rating
10.9–6.1
Proj record
81%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Minnesota Vikings
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Detroit Lions
Model assumes: Kyler Murray (MIN) v Jared Goff (DET)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs NOW 31–30#25-7.072%
vs NOSep 17
at BUFL 31–41#2+5.542%
at BUFSep 27
vs NYJW 31–24#27-7.079%
vs NYJOct 4
at CARL 26–32#19-4.066%
at CAROct 11
at ARIW 45–21#28-5.575%
at ARIOct 25
vs GBW 20–17#15-3.570%
vs GBNov 1vs MINSun 12:00 PM#3-3.5Premium
vs MINNov 8
at MIASun 12:00 PM#31-7.0Premium
at MIANov 15
vs NESun 8:30 AM#110.0Premium
vs NENov 22
vs TBSun 12:00 PM#22-4.5Premium
vs TBNov 26
vs CHIThu 12:00 PM#8-2.5Premium
vs CHIDec 6
at ATLSun 12:00 PM#18-3.5Premium
at ATLDec 13
vs TENSun 12:00 PM#32-7.5Premium
vs TENDec 20at MINSun 7:20 PM#3-2.5Premium
at MINDec 28
vs NYGMon 7:15 PM#17-4.5Premium
vs NYGJan 3at CHISun 3:25 PM#8+1.5Premium
at CHIJan 10at GBSun 12:00 PM#15+2.5Premium
at GBModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#1#5#10
#7
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #307-28 #409-15 #509-22 #709-29 #810-06 #1110-13 #1110-20 #810-27 #7
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the NFC North30%
Make the playoffs81%
No. 1 seed (bye)9%
Reach the Super Bowl12%
Win the Super Bowl6%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
10.9
891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 12 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 9 to 13. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.144#3
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.146#31
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.309#2
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.108#19
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.237#28
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.068#25
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.5#26
Projected wins10.9#7
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Lions
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on DET
1–4
Picks against
-3.1u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks, 1 of them pushes.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.