BBMI Rank · #11 of 32

Detroit Lions

Record 9-82025 SeasonPower rating +2.7

Analytics, not picks

Projected

9–8

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense above average · Defense below average · ranked 11th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #11

EPA/play

+0.026

11th

Pass EPA

+0.185

8th

Rush EPA

-0.088

19th

Defense

EPA #19

EPA/play

+0.024

19th

Pass def EPA

+0.061

12th

Rush def EPA

-0.037

26th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackA-

EPA/dropback: +0.167 (#8)

J.Goff

ReceiversA

YAC EPA: -0.018 (#1)

A.St. Brown

Running GameB-

EPA/rush: -0.068 (#19)

J.Gibbs

O-LineB-

Stuff rate %: +20.100 (#17)

Pass RushB-

Sack rate %: 7.200 (#20)

CoverageB+

Opp pass EPA: 0.039 (#12)

Run DefenseC

Opp rush EPA: -0.036 (#26)

Special TeamsC+

Net ST EPA: +3 (#24)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@GB	L	13-27	-0.063	+0.227
2	vsCHI	W	52-21	+0.183	+0.016
3	@BAL	W	38-30	+0.250	+0.045
4	vsCLE	W	34-10	+0.133	-0.067
5	@CIN	W	37-24	+0.150	-0.055
6	@KC	L	17-30	+0.136	+0.024
7	vsTB	W	24-9	+0.093	-0.048
9	vsMIN	L	24-27	+0.069	-0.039
10	@WAS	W	44-22	+0.140	-0.004
11	@PHI	L	9-16	+0.054	-0.034
12	vsNYG	W	34-27	+0.069	-0.007
13	vsGB	L	24-31	+0.066	+0.041
14	vsDAL	W	44-30	+0.094	+0.027
15	@LAR	L	34-41	+0.107	+0.051
16	vsPIT	L	24-29	+0.099	+0.065
17	@MIN	L	10-23	+0.026	+0.024
18	@CHI	W	19-16	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

9–8

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Heavily pass-dependent — pass offense EPA 0.185 vs rush -0.088
Avonte Maddox (DEF) absence worth ~0.6 points (Hamstring, missed 3 games)
Kerby Joseph (DEF) absence worth ~0.8 points (Knee, missed 12 games)
Brian Branch (DEF) absence worth ~0.8 points (Ankle, missed 5 games)
Alim McNeill (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Knee, missed 3 games)
D.J. Reed (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Knee, missed 8 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.