Major model updates are logged here as they happen. Because picks are frozen before games tip off, any methodology change only affects future picks — never historical results.
High Rotations Rebuilt and Rankings Moved onto the Picks Model August 19, 2026 ▼
High Totals Now Reflect Double Plays and Force Outs August 19, 2026 ▼
Low Stolen Bases Modeled Per Hitter August 15, 2026 ▼
Medium Playoff Bracket Odds Aligned to the Full-Game Model August 11, 2026 ▼
High Premium Record Recount — One Premium Definition August 9, 2026 ▼
Medium First-5 Performance-Page Corrections August 9, 2026 ▼
High WNBA Model Public — Live Paper Experiment August 8, 2026 ▼
Medium WNBA Champion Promoted — Margin Saturation July 2026 ▼
Medium v1.30.0 — Starter-Talent Tail Shrinkage July 2026 ▼
Medium Preseason Ratings — De-Vig Market Consensus + Strength Rating July 2026 ▼
Low v1.29.0 — Park-Specific Contact Correction (Four Parks) July 2026 ▼
Medium v1.28.0 — Seasonal Run-Environment Factor for Totals July 2026 ▼
Medium v1.27.0 — Starter Handedness-Split Correction July 2026 ▼
High v1.26.0 — League-Wide Run-Total Calibration (Corrects a 0.57 R/G Under-Projection) June 2026 ▼
High Hitter Prior Credibility — Small-Sample Batting Lines (v1.24–v1.25) June 2026 ▼
High Home-Field Advantage + Traded-Player Park Correction (v1.22–v1.23) June 2026 ▼
High F5 Totals Pulled From Public Picks — Paper Tracking Pending Model Enhancements May 2026 ▼
Medium Game-Total Calibration Layer (v1.11–v1.18) May 2026 ▼
High Bullpen & Starter Realism (v1.7.4–v1.17) May 2026 ▼
High Full-Game Per-Plate-Appearance Simulation (v1.8.0) May 2026 ▼
Medium Dynamic Park Factors + First-5 Spreads to Production (v1.6.0–v1.7.0) May 2026 ▼
High v1.5.0 — Per-Park Raw HR Factors + Three Sponsor-Rename Aliases (W11) May 2026 ▼
High v1.4.0 — Usage-Rate-Based Bullpen Deployment (W15) May 2026 ▼
Medium Travel/Timezone Spread Adjustment April 2026 ▼
Medium Prediction Confidence Scoring System April 2026 ▼
High Pace/Tempo Total Adjustment April 2026 ▼
High Weather-Adjusted Totals + Early-Season Spread Correction April 2026 ▼
High Walk-Forward Validation Complete April 2026 ▼
Medium Vegas O/U Blend Removed April 2026 ▼
Low Feature Investigation: QB Quality, Turnover Luck — CLOSED April 2026 ▼
Low Credibility Curve Diagnostic — Deferred to Model v2 April 2026 ▼
High Release 5 — Real-PIT Re-Validation + BBS Retirement April 2026 ▼
High O/U Hard Filters + CCS Confidence Tiers April 2026 ▼
Medium O/U Edge Threshold Raised to 1.0 April 2026 ▼
Medium Both-Bad-Starters Qualifier April 2026 ▼
High ouPick OVER Bug Fix April 2026 ▼
High Run Line Threshold Calibration April 2026 ▼
Medium Pythagorean Rankings Anchor April 2026 ▼
Low Bullpen Module Re-Test: CLOSED April 2026 ▼
Medium Daily Validation Report April 2026 ▼
Low Shared Threshold Configs April 2026 ▼
Medium Wrigley Wind Adjustment March 2026 ▼
High Individual Ace Run Line Qualifier March 2026 ▼
Medium Non-Linear Edge Weighting March 2026 ▼
Low NCAA Tournament Simulation Upgrade March 2026 ▼
Medium Saturday DOW Adjustment Fix March 2026 ▼
Medium Dynamic League Average Calibration March 2026 ▼
Medium Automated Daily Pipeline March 2026 ▼
Low Multi-Bookmaker Odds Fallback March 2026 ▼
Low Line Movement-Aware Performance Record March 2026 ▼
Future updates will be logged here as they are deployed.