AFC WEST • 2026 SEASON
Las Vegas Raiders
#23
BBMI rank
-4.5
Rating
6.8–10.2
Proj record
4%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Las Vegas Raiders
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
New York Jets
Model assumes: Kirk Cousins (LV) v Geno Smith (NYJ)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs MIAW 27–13#31-3.066%
vs MIASep 20
at LACW 26–14#30+6.523%
at LACSep 27
at NOW 35–27#25+3.533%
at NOOct 4
vs KCL 27–30#4+4.534%
vs KCOct 11
at NEL 17–45#11+3.532%
at NEOct 18
vs BUFL 30–33#2+5.027%
vs BUFOct 25
vs LARL 21–35#13+3.032%
vs LARNov 1at NYJSun 12:00 PM#27+1.5Premium
at NYJNov 8
at SFSun 3:05 PM#1+9.5Premium
at SFNov 15
vs SEASun 3:05 PM#6+7.0Premium
vs SEANov 22
at DENSun 3:25 PM#5+7.5Premium
at DENNov 29
at CLESun 12:00 PM#16+1.5Premium
at CLEDec 13vs LACSun 3:05 PM#30+5.5Premium
vs LACDec 20vs DENSun 3:25 PM#5+4.5Premium
vs DENDec 27
vs TENSun 3:05 PM#32-1.5Premium
vs TENJan 3
at ARISun 3:05 PM#28-1.5Premium
at ARIJan 10at KCSun 12:00 PM#4+8.5Premium
at KCModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#15#20#25#30
#22
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #2907-28 #2809-15 #2809-22 #2809-29 #1610-06 #1810-13 #2210-20 #2010-27 #22
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC West1%
Make the playoffs4%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl0%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
6.8
45678910
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 8 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 5 to 9. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.013#16
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.038#22
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.156#9
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.252#31
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.138#23
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.105#13
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.3#15
Projected wins6.8#23
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Raiders
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on LV
3–4
Picks against
-1.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.