Atlanta Falcons
Offense above average · Defense below average · ranked 19th of 32 by power rating.
Offense
EPA #19Defense
EPA #14EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.
EPA trend by week
Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).
Position group grades
Schedule & results
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Score | Off EPA | Def EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs TB | L | 20-23 | +0.075 | +0.140 |
| 2 | @ MIN | W | 22-6 | +0.017 | -0.177 |
| 3 | @ CAR | L | 0-30 | -0.115 | -0.113 |
| 4 | vs WAS | W | 34-27 | +0.001 | -0.038 |
| 6 | vs BUF | W | 24-14 | +0.035 | -0.054 |
| 7 | @ SF | L | 10-20 | +0.003 | -0.035 |
| 8 | vs MIA | L | 10-34 | -0.054 | +0.007 |
| 9 | @ NE | L | 23-24 | -0.034 | +0.008 |
| 10 | @ IND | L | 25-31 | -0.029 | +0.032 |
| 11 | vsCAR | L | 27-30 | -0.010 | +0.042 |
| 12 | @ NO | W | 24-10 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| 13 | @ NYJ | L | 24-27 | +0.004 | +0.004 |
| 14 | vs SEA | L | 9-37 | -0.038 | +0.020 |
| 15 | @TB | W | 29-28 | -0.008 | +0.037 |
| 16 | @ ARI | W | 26-19 | +0.002 | +0.035 |
| 17 | vs LAR | W | 27-24 | +0.017 | +0.018 |
| 18 | vsNO | W | 19-17 | — | — |
Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.
Season projections
Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.
Insights
- On a 3+ game winning streak
- Without David Onyemata (DEF): ~1.3-point spread swing, +5.7% win probability (undisclosed injury, missed 12 games)
- Without Leonard Floyd (DEF): ~1.4-point spread swing, +5.8% win probability (undisclosed injury, missed 10 games)
- A.J. Terrell (DEF) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 2 games)
- James Pearce Jr. (DEF) absence worth ~0.3 points (Groin, missed 2 games)
- Jalon Walker (DEF) absence worth ~0.2 points (Groin, missed 5 games)
Elo rating history
How these ratings are built
BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.
NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.