Power rankings
All 32 teams ranked by BBMI Score: projected winning percentage against an average schedule, with games already played counted as schedule-adjusted results and each remaining game at the team’s Talent. Projected records and the simulated playoff odds come from full-season simulations.
| ▴ | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Francisco 49ersNFC West | 6-1 | .772 | .712 | 13.1–3.9 | 11.0–15.0 | 99% | 87% | 22.4% |
| 2 |  Buffalo BillsAFC East | 5-1 | .751 | .685 | 12.6–4.4 | 11.0–14.5 | 98% | 85% | 16.7% |
| 3▲1 |  Minnesota VikingsNFC North | 6-0 | .707 | .574 | 11.8–5.2 | 10.0–14.0 | 92% | 53% | 5.2% |
| 4▼1 |  Kansas City ChiefsAFC West | 5-1 | .683 | .617 | 11.2–5.8 | 9.0–13.0 | 88% | 52% | 6.5% |
| 5 |  Denver BroncosAFC West | 5-2 | .672 | .589 | 11.2–5.8 | 9.0–13.0 | 88% | 47% | 5.8% |
| 6▲3 |  Seattle SeahawksNFC West | 4-3 | .647 | .686 | 10.7–6.3 | 9.0–12.5 | 78% | 11% | 9.0% |
| 7▲5 |  Cincinnati BengalsAFC North | 4-2 | .636 | .618 | 11.3–5.7 | 9.5–13.0 | 88% | 57% | 7.0% |
| 8▲2 |  Chicago BearsNFC North | 5-2 | .628 | .586 | 10.4–6.6 | 8.5–12.0 | 70% | 16% | 3.6% |
| 9▼1 |  Detroit LionsNFC North | 4-2 | .622 | .620 | 10.9–6.1 | 9.0–13.0 | 81% | 30% | 5.7% |
| 10▼3 |  Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South | 4-2 | .612 | .579 | 10.7–6.3 | 9.0–13.0 | 89% | 85% | 4.3% |
| 11▼5 |  New England PatriotsAFC East | 4-3 | .607 | .595 | 10.0–7.0 | 8.0–12.0 | 67% | 15% | 3.2% |
| 12▲1 |  Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North | 5-2 | .584 | .494 | 10.0–7.0 | 8.0–12.0 | 62% | 21% | 1.1% |
| 13▲2 |  Los Angeles RamsNFC West | 3-4 | .567 | .665 | 9.4–7.6 | 7.5–11.0 | 46% | 3% | 3.5% |
| 14▼3 |  Baltimore RavensAFC North | 4-3 | .549 | .562 | 9.4–7.6 | 7.5–11.0 | 47% | 10% | 1.6% |
| 15▼1 |  Green Bay PackersNFC North | 4-3 | .534 | .487 | 8.6–8.4 | 7.0–10.5 | 24% | 2% | 0.3% |
| 16▲1 |  Cleveland BrownsAFC North | 5-2 | .532 | .428 | 9.3–7.7 | 7.0–11.0 | 45% | 11% | 0.3% |
| 17▲2 |  New York GiantsNFC East | 4-2-1 | .494 | .437 | 8.9–8.1 | 7.0–10.5 | 59% | 57% | 0.7% |
| 18▲4 |  Atlanta FalconsNFC South | 3-4 | .476 | .492 | 7.7–9.3 | 6.0–10.0 | 35% | 34% | 0.7% |
| 19▼3 |  Carolina PanthersNFC South | 3-3 | .464 | .449 | 7.7–9.3 | 6.0–10.0 | 37% | 36% | 0.4% |
| 20▲3 |  Dallas CowboysNFC East | 3-4 | .461 | .507 | 8.3–8.7 | 6.5–10.0 | 40% | 36% | 1.0% |
| 21▼3 |  Houston TexansAFC South | 2-5 | .432 | .534 | 7.8–9.2 | 6.0–10.0 | 19% | 11% | 0.5% |
| 22▲6 |  Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South | 2-5 | .415 | .503 | 6.9–10.1 | 5.0–9.0 | 21% | 20% | 0.3% |
| 23▼3 |  Las Vegas RaidersAFC West | 3-4 | .406 | .382 | 6.8–10.2 | 5.0–9.0 | 4% | 1% | 0.0% |
| 24▼3 |  Indianapolis ColtsAFC South | 2-5 | .366 | .426 | 6.7–10.3 | 5.0–9.0 | 6% | 4% | 0.0% |
| 25▼1 |  New Orleans SaintsNFC South | 2-5 | .357 | .406 | 6.3–10.7 | 4.0–8.0 | 11% | 10% | 0.0% |
| 26 |  Washington CommandersNFC East | 1-4-1 | .346 | .395 | 6.2–10.8 | 4.5–8.5 | 6% | 5% | 0.1% |
| 27▼2 |  New York JetsAFC East | 2-5 | .336 | .397 | 5.9–11.1 | 4.0–8.0 | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 28▼1 |  Arizona CardinalsNFC West | 2-5 | .315 | .287 | 5.0–12.0 | 3.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 29 |  Philadelphia EaglesNFC East | 2-5 | .296 | .316 | 5.3–11.7 | 3.5–7.0 | 2% | 2% | 0.0% |
| 30 |  Los Angeles ChargersAFC West | 0-6 | .286 | .425 | 4.4–12.6 | 2.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 31▲1 |  Miami DolphinsAFC East | 1-5 | .248 | .271 | 3.6–13.4 | 2.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 32▼1 |  Tennessee TitansAFC South | 1-6 | .198 | .277 | 3.6–13.4 | 2.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
Showing 32 of 32 NFL teams. BBMI Score = projected win% against an average remaining schedule (the ranking key): (wins + ties/2 + schedule adjustment + Talent × games remaining) ÷ 17; Talent = win rate against the other 31 at a neutral site with current active rosters; Proj W = mean simulated wins on the actual schedule; Win Range = 80% interval (10th–90th percentile); Playoff / Div / SB are simulated postseason probabilities. Score and Talent through week 7.
How the BBMI rankings are built
Ranked on the BBMI Score. The score is each team’s projected winning percentage if the rest of its schedule were average: (wins + ties/2 + schedule adjustment + Talent × games remaining) ÷ 17, so the maximum is 1.000. Games already played count as results. Each one is adjusted by how much harder or easier it was than a game against an average opponent, from both teams’ Talent and home field. Each remaining game counts at the team’s Talent. Early in the season the score is mostly Talent; by December it is mostly the record.
Talent. Each team’s win rate against the other 31 at a neutral site, simulated with its current active roster on the model’s player-level layer, so injured-reserve players are out. It updates weekly, currently through week 7.
Projected odds. A separate set of 10,000 full-season simulations translates that strength and each team’s actual schedule into projected wins, playoff, division-title, and Super Bowl probabilities, plus an 80% win-total range (10th–90th percentile). Next week’s games use each team’s current lineup; later games also apply our assumptions about players returning or missing games, so projected wins and odds can change before Talent does. Talent describes only today’s active roster.
Current through week 7. Completed games are fixed at their results and only the remaining schedule is simulated.
From the Research Desk
All research →Detroit Is the NFC North Favorite. The First Month Will Test It.
Jared Goff and one of the NFL’s best offenses give Detroit a championship ceiling. A rebuilt offensive line and four games without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph give it an immediate problem. BBMI rates the Lions fourth of 32 at +4.8, projects 11.5–5.5 with an 86% playoff chance, and makes them 60% to win the division.
#4 of 32 · +4.8 · 11.5–5.5 projected · 86% playoffs · 60% NFC NorthNFL · Season PreviewWhy Plus-22 Is Unlikely to Repeat: Chicago’s 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Chicago won the NFC North at 11–6 behind the best turnover margin in football, and two defenders who accounted for 15 of those 33 takeaways are gone. Pro Football Reference put the Bears at 9.1 expected wins; they won 11. BBMI rates Chicago +1.6, 15th of 32, and projects 9.3–7.7 with a 47% playoff chance — first team out of the projected NFC field.
#15 of 32 · +1.6 · 9.3–7.7 projected · 47% playoffs · 18% NFC NorthNFL · Season PreviewA Good Defense and a $1.3 Million Quarterback: Minnesota's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Minnesota rated 6th in defensive EPA and 22nd on offense in 2025, started three quarterbacks, and missed the playoffs by the width of a Green Bay tie. BBMI projects 8.4-8.6 in 2026, last in a division it likes all three rivals in, with Kyler Murray signed for the veteran minimum to make the passing game functional enough for the defense to matter.
#18 of 32 · 0.0 · 8.4–8.6 projected · 30% playoffs · 6% NFC North