NFL · Power Rankings

Power rankings

All 32 teams ranked by BBMI Rating, our strength rating: expected points margin against an average opponent on a neutral field. Projected records and the simulated playoff odds come from full-season simulations.

Preseason · 2026
32
Teams
20k
Season sims
Click a column heading to sort
▴
1LARLos Angeles RamsNFC West0-1+7.0.68811.7–5.39.0–14.088%59%15.8%
2BALBaltimore RavensAFC North1-0+5.6.67111.4–5.69.0–14.087%57%10.8%
3BUFBuffalo BillsAFC East1-0+5.2.63510.8–6.28.0–13.082%65%9.1%
4DETDetroit LionsNFC North1-0+4.8.67611.5–5.59.0–14.086%60%9.7%
5SEASeattle SeahawksNFC West1-0+4.8.62410.6–6.48.0–13.072%24%7.6%
6SFSan Francisco 49ersNFC West1-0+3.6.60010.2–6.88.0–13.066%17%4.3%
7CINCincinnati BengalsAFC North1-0+3.4.64711.0–6.08.5–13.582%38%6.5%
8KCKansas City ChiefsAFC West0-0+3.4.60010.2–6.88.0–12.570%38%4.8%
9PHIPhiladelphia EaglesNFC East1-0+3.2.61210.4–6.68.0–13.072%56%5.1%
10NENew England PatriotsAFC East0-1+3.2.58810.0–7.07.5–12.569%35%4.2%
11LACLos Angeles ChargersAFC West0-1+3.2.5769.8–7.27.0–12.063%26%3.7%
12GBGreen Bay PackersNFC North0-1+2.8.5719.7–7.37.0–12.055%17%2.9%
13DENDenver BroncosAFC West0-0+2.6.5769.8–7.27.0–12.063%36%3.4%
14HOUHouston TexansAFC South0-1+2.6.5769.8–7.27.0–12.067%59%3.7%
15CHIChicago BearsNFC North1-0+1.6.5479.3–7.77.0–12.047%18%2.1%
16DALDallas CowboysNFC East0-1+1.4.5299.0–8.06.5–11.543%30%1.6%
17JAXJacksonville JaguarsAFC South1-0+0.8.5128.7–8.36.0–11.043%23%1.2%
18MINMinnesota VikingsNFC North1-00.0.4948.4–8.66.0–11.030%6%0.7%
19PITPittsburgh SteelersAFC North1-0-0.6.4768.1–8.96.0–11.029%4%0.6%
20TBTampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South0-1-0.8.4657.9–9.15.0–10.537%28%0.7%
21INDIndianapolis ColtsAFC South0-1-1.6.4597.8–9.25.0–10.027%15%0.4%
22NONew Orleans SaintsNFC South0-1-1.8.4828.2–8.86.0–11.043%39%0.5%
23WASWashington CommandersNFC East0-1-1.8.4247.2–9.85.0–10.015%6%0.1%
24NYGNew York GiantsNFC East1-0-2.2.4247.2–9.85.0–10.015%8%0.1%
25CARCarolina PanthersNFC South0-1-3.0.3946.7–10.34.0–9.017%16%0.1%
26ATLAtlanta FalconsNFC South0-1-3.2.3946.7–10.34.0–9.017%18%0.1%
27TENTennessee TitansAFC South0-1-4.6.3596.1–10.94.0–8.57%3%0.0%
28LVLas Vegas RaidersAFC West1-0-5.6.3415.8–11.23.5–8.04%1%0.0%
29NYJNew York JetsAFC East1-0-6.6.3415.8–11.23.5–8.04%1%0.0%
30CLECleveland BrownsAFC North0-1-6.6.3245.5–11.53.0–8.03%0%0.0%
31MIAMiami DolphinsAFC East0-1-9.6.2063.5–13.51.5–5.50%0%0.0%
32ARIArizona CardinalsNFC West1-0-10.4.1823.1–13.91.0–5.00%0%0.0%
Showing 32 of 32 teamsTALENT = projected win rate, a stand-in until a roster rating exists

Showing 32 of 32 NFL teams. BBMI Rating = strength rating in net points/game vs an average opponent (the ranking key; opponent-adjusted in-season, market-anchored preseason); Proj W = mean simulated wins (schedule-dependent, tiebreaker only); Win Range = 80% interval (10th–90th percentile); Playoff / Div / SB are simulated postseason probabilities. Preseason basis: market win-total prior + 2025 QB depth charts, so teams resolve into rating tiers before Week 1.

How the BBMI preseason rankings are built

Ranked on a strength rating, not on wins. Teams are ordered by BBMI Rating — the model’s expected points margin per game against an average opponent on a neutral field. We deliberately do not rank on projected wins: two equally strong teams finish with different win totals purely because their schedules differ, so wins are a poor strength measure. Wins only break ties inside a rating tier.

Preseason basis — rating tiers. Team strength is anchored to the market win-total prior (which reflects each team’s schedule) and 2025 QB depth charts. Because no 2026 games have been played, the rating carries talent but little separation, so teams resolve into a handful of rating tiers rather than 32 distinct values. Announced Week-1 starters are folded in during late August, and the rating updates off real opponent-adjusted results (EPA) once the season begins — sharpening the tiers into a continuous, opponent-adjusted strength ranking.

Projected odds. A separate set of 20,000 full-season simulations translates that strength and each team’s actual schedule into projected wins, playoff, division-title, and Super Bowl probabilities, plus an 80% win-total range (10th–90th percentile).

This is a preseason projection. Opponent-adjusted efficiency (EPA) columns return once the 2026 season is under way and games have been played.

From the Research Desk

All research →
NFL · Season Preview

Detroit Is the NFC North Favorite. The First Month Will Test It.

Jared Goff and one of the NFL’s best offenses give Detroit a championship ceiling. A rebuilt offensive line and four games without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph give it an immediate problem. BBMI rates the Lions fourth of 32 at +4.8, projects 11.5–5.5 with an 86% playoff chance, and makes them 60% to win the division.

#4 of 32 · +4.8 · 11.5–5.5 projected · 86% playoffs · 60% NFC NorthAug 31 · 12 minNFL · Season Preview

Why Plus-22 Is Unlikely to Repeat: Chicago’s 2026 Season, by the Numbers

Chicago won the NFC North at 11–6 behind the best turnover margin in football, and two defenders who accounted for 15 of those 33 takeaways are gone. Pro Football Reference put the Bears at 9.1 expected wins; they won 11. BBMI rates Chicago +1.6, 15th of 32, and projects 9.3–7.7 with a 47% playoff chance — first team out of the projected NFC field.

#15 of 32 · +1.6 · 9.3–7.7 projected · 47% playoffs · 18% NFC NorthAug 27 · 12 minNFL · Season Preview

A Good Defense and a $1.3 Million Quarterback: Minnesota's 2026 Season, by the Numbers

Minnesota rated 6th in defensive EPA and 22nd on offense in 2025, started three quarterbacks, and missed the playoffs by the width of a Green Bay tie. BBMI projects 8.4-8.6 in 2026, last in a division it likes all three rivals in, with Kyler Murray signed for the veteran minimum to make the passing game functional enough for the defense to matter.

#18 of 32 · 0.0 · 8.4–8.6 projected · 30% playoffs · 6% NFC NorthAug 24 · 11 min