NFL Analytics · Power Rankings

NFL Power Rankings

Seattle Seahawks holds the top spot with the NFL's best defensive EPA (-0.161). Los Angeles Rams's passing attack (0.206 Pass Off EPA) powers their #2 ranking.

# ▲?	Δ	Team	Record?	Rating?	PPG?	Opp?	Last 4?	Off EPA?	Def EPA?	Elo?	Proj Rec?	vs Vegas?	SOS?	Trend
1	–	Seattle SeahawksNFC West	14-3	+9.4	28.4	17.2	4-0	+0.035	-0.161	1738	14-3	+6.0	19	↑
2	–	Los Angeles RamsNFC West	12-5	+7.1	30.5	20.4	2-2	+0.139	-0.030	1647	12-5	+3.5	5	→
3	–	New England PatriotsAFC East	14-3	+7.1	28.8	18.8	3-1	+0.192	-0.030	1606	14-3	+7.5	32	↑
4	–	Buffalo BillsAFC East	12-5	+5.6	28.3	21.5	3-1	+0.109	-0.014	1634	12-5	+1.5	29	→
5	–	Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South	13-4	+5.0	27.9	19.8	4-0	+0.042	-0.104	1575	13-4	+6.0	22	↑
6	–	Denver BroncosAFC West	14-3	+4.6	23.6	18.3	3-1	+0.053	-0.034	1623	14-3	+5.5	31	→
7	–	Houston TexansAFC South	12-5	+4.5	23.8	17.4	4-0	-0.012	-0.115	1600	12-5	+2.5	4	→
8	–	Philadelphia EaglesNFC East	11-6	+4.2	22.3	19.1	3-1	+0.044	-0.105	1573	11-6	+1.0	20	↑
9	–	San Francisco 49ersNFC West	12-5	+3.7	25.7	21.8	3-1	+0.152	+0.071	1596	12-5	+2.5	8	→
10	–	Baltimore RavensAFC North	8-9	+2.7	24.9	23.4	2-2	+0.056	+0.002	1587	8-9	-3.0	11	→
11	–	Detroit LionsNFC North	9-8	+2.7	28.3	24.3	1-3	+0.026	+0.024	1603	9-8	-2.5	18	→
12	–	Chicago BearsNFC North	11-6	+2.4	25.9	24.4	2-2	+0.103	+0.022	1546	11-6	+2.5	28	↑
13	–	Green Bay PackersNFC North	9-7-1	+1.4	23.0	21.2	0-4	+0.141	+0.065	1497	9-8	-0.5	23	→
14	–	Kansas City ChiefsAFC West	6-11	+0.9	21.3	19.3	0-4	-0.007	+0.013	1545	6-11	-4.5	17	↓
15	–	Los Angeles ChargersAFC West	11-6	+0.9	21.6	20.0	2-2	-0.002	-0.093	1461	11-6	+2.0	26	→
16	–	Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North	10-7	+0.4	23.4	22.8	3-1	+0.006	-0.010	1503	10-7	+1.0	13	→
17	–	Minnesota VikingsNFC North	9-8	-0.2	20.2	19.6	4-0	-0.121	-0.121	1485	9-8	-0.5	10	→
18	–	Indianapolis ColtsAFC South	8-9	-0.5	27.4	24.2	0-4	+0.027	+0.042	1459	8-9	0.0	6	↓
19	–	Atlanta FalconsNFC South	8-9	-1.2	20.8	23.6	4-0	+0.017	+0.018	1462	8-9	-0.5	21	→
20	–	Cincinnati BengalsAFC North	6-11	-1.3	24.4	28.9	2-2	+0.062	+0.104	1502	6-11	-3.5	14	↑
21	–	Dallas CowboysNFC East	7-9-1	-1.9	27.7	30.1	1-3	+0.110	+0.182	1476	7-10	-1.0	30	→
22	–	New Orleans SaintsNFC South	6-11	-1.9	18.0	22.5	3-1	-0.044	-0.085	1407	6-11	-1.0	25	↑
23	–	Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South	8-9	-1.9	22.4	24.2	1-3	-0.004	+0.045	1455	8-9	-0.5	9	↓
24	–	New York GiantsNFC East	4-13	-2.2	22.4	25.8	2-2	+0.042	+0.074	1441	4-13	-2.5	15	→
25	–	Miami DolphinsAFC East	7-10	-2.7	20.4	24.9	1-3	+0.002	+0.050	1433	7-10	-1.5	24	↑
26	–	Cleveland BrownsAFC North	5-12	-4.4	16.4	22.3	2-2	-0.203	-0.087	1413	5-12	-1.5	27	→
27	–	Carolina PanthersNFC South	8-9	-4.7	18.3	22.4	1-3	-0.059	+0.069	1390	8-9	+3.0	12	→
28	–	Washington CommandersNFC East	5-12	-5.2	20.9	26.5	2-2	+0.015	+0.202	1422	5-12	-4.5	16	↓
29	–	Arizona CardinalsNFC West	3-14	-5.8	20.9	28.7	0-4	-0.019	+0.120	1371	3-14	-4.5	2	↓
30	–	Las Vegas RaidersAFC West	3-14	-5.9	14.2	25.4	1-3	-0.197	+0.069	1500	3-14	-3.5	3	↓
31	–	Tennessee TitansAFC South	3-14	-8.0	16.7	28.1	1-3	-0.110	+0.083	1332	3-14	-2.5	1	↑
32	–	New York JetsAFC East	3-14	-10.9	17.6	29.6	0-4	-0.170	+0.170	1303	3-14	-4.5	7	↓

Column guide: Rating = BBMI Composite (Elo 40% + EPA 40% + PFR 20%), points above/below average. PPG/Opp = points scored and allowed per game. Off/Def EPA = expected points added per play (higher offense and lower defense = better). Proj Rec = Monte Carlo projected final record. vs Vegas = current wins minus preseason win total pace. SOS = strength of schedule (1 = hardest). Click any row to expand. Click column headers to sort.

Team Tiers

Tier 1: Championship Contenders(5 teams)

Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars. New England Patriots leads the tier in offensive EPA (+0.192/play). Seattle Seahawks anchors the tier with -0.161 defensive EPA.

Tier 2: Playoff Caliber(6 teams)

Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions. San Francisco 49ers leads the tier in offensive EPA (+0.152/play). Houston Texans anchors the tier with -0.115 defensive EPA.

Tier 3: Competitive(5 teams)

Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers. Green Bay Packers leads the tier in offensive EPA (+0.141/play). Los Angeles Chargers anchors the tier with -0.093 defensive EPA.

Tier 4: Rebuilding(16 teams)

Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets. Dallas Cowboys leads the tier in offensive EPA (+0.110/play). Minnesota Vikings anchors the tier with -0.121 defensive EPA.

Understanding These Metrics ▾

EPA (Expected Points Added): Every play starts from a situation worth a certain number of expected points (based on down, distance, and field position). EPA measures how much a play changed that expectation. Positive EPA = good play, negative = bad. It is the most predictive single metric in football analytics because it accounts for context.

EPA/dropback: Average EPA on all pass plays (including sacks). Measures overall passing game quality. League average is approximately 0.00.

EPA/rush: Average EPA on all rushing plays. Because NFL rushing is generally less efficient than passing, even a slightly positive number indicates an above-average rushing attack.

CPOE: Completion Percentage Over Expected. How much better or worse a QB completes passes than expected, given throw difficulty. Positive = better than expected.

Sack Rate: Percentage of dropbacks resulting in a sack. League average is approximately 6-7%. Below 5% is elite.

Stuff Rate: Percentage of rushing attempts gaining zero or negative yards. Measures offensive line run blocking quality. Lower is better.

Success Rate: Percentage of plays producing positive EPA. More consistent than EPA/play because it is not skewed by a few explosive plays.

Explosive Play Rate: Percentage of plays gaining 20+ yards (passing) or 10+ yards (rushing). Captures big-play ability.

YAC EPA: EPA generated after the catch. Isolates receiver skill from quarterback accuracy.

Elo Rating: Team strength rating where 1500 = average. Updated after every game based on margin of victory relative to expectation.

BBMI Composite Rating: Blends Elo (40%), EPA (40%), and opponent-adjusted box scores (20%). Expressed as points above or below average.

Position Group Grades: A through D grades based on rank 1-32. Top 4 = A, 5-8 = A-, 9-12 = B+, 13-16 = B, 17-20 = B-, 21-24 = C+, 25-28 = C, 29-32 = D.

BBMI Composite Rating blends nfelo Elo ratings (40%), weighted EPA/play from nflverse (40%), and PFR opponent-adjusted efficiency (20%). Updated weekly. This is an analytics product — not betting picks. Learn more