2026 Preseason Rankings.
All 32 NFL teams ranked by BBMI Rating — our strength rating (expected points margin vs an average opponent), not projected wins, which conflate how hard each team’s schedule is. Preseason it is seeded by market win-total priors and sharpens into an opponent-adjusted strength rating as games are played. Projected wins, records, and simulated playoff, division, and Super Bowl odds come from 20,000 full-season simulations. Not last year’s record or reputation.
| Rank | Team | Conf | BBMI Rating | Proj W | Proj Record | Win Range | Playoff% | Div% | SB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Los Angeles Rams | NFC | +7.0 | 11.7 | 11.7–5.3 | 9.0–14.0 | 88% | 59% | 15.8% |
| 2 |  Baltimore Ravens | AFC | +5.6 | 11.4 | 11.4–5.6 | 9.0–14.0 | 87% | 57% | 10.8% |
| 3 |  Buffalo Bills | AFC | +5.2 | 10.8 | 10.8–6.2 | 8.0–13.0 | 82% | 65% | 9.1% |
| 4 |  Detroit Lions | NFC | +4.8 | 11.5 | 11.5–5.5 | 9.0–14.0 | 86% | 60% | 9.7% |
| 5 |  Seattle Seahawks | NFC | +4.8 | 10.6 | 10.6–6.4 | 8.0–13.0 | 72% | 24% | 7.6% |
| 6 |  San Francisco 49ers | NFC | +3.6 | 10.2 | 10.2–6.8 | 8.0–13.0 | 66% | 17% | 4.3% |
| 7 |  Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | +3.4 | 11.0 | 11.0–6.0 | 8.5–13.5 | 82% | 38% | 6.5% |
| 8 |  Kansas City Chiefs | AFC | +3.4 | 10.2 | 10.2–6.8 | 8.0–12.5 | 70% | 38% | 4.8% |
| 9 |  Philadelphia Eagles | NFC | +3.2 | 10.4 | 10.4–6.6 | 8.0–13.0 | 72% | 56% | 5.1% |
| 10 |  New England Patriots | AFC | +3.2 | 10.0 | 10.0–7.0 | 7.5–12.5 | 69% | 35% | 4.2% |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Chargers | AFC | +3.2 | 9.8 | 9.8–7.2 | 7.0–12.0 | 63% | 26% | 3.7% |
| 12 |  Green Bay Packers | NFC | +2.8 | 9.7 | 9.7–7.3 | 7.0–12.0 | 55% | 17% | 2.9% |
| 13 |  Denver Broncos | AFC | +2.6 | 9.8 | 9.8–7.2 | 7.0–12.0 | 63% | 36% | 3.4% |
| 14 |  Houston Texans | AFC | +2.6 | 9.8 | 9.8–7.2 | 7.0–12.0 | 67% | 59% | 3.7% |
| 15 |  Chicago Bears | NFC | +1.6 | 9.3 | 9.3–7.7 | 7.0–12.0 | 47% | 18% | 2.1% |
| 16 |  Dallas Cowboys | NFC | +1.4 | 9.0 | 9.0–8.0 | 6.5–11.5 | 43% | 30% | 1.6% |
| 17 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC | +0.8 | 8.7 | 8.7–8.3 | 6.0–11.0 | 43% | 23% | 1.2% |
| 18 |  Minnesota Vikings | NFC | 0.0 | 8.4 | 8.4–8.6 | 6.0–11.0 | 30% | 6% | 0.7% |
| 19 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC | -0.6 | 8.1 | 8.1–8.9 | 6.0–11.0 | 29% | 4% | 0.6% |
| 20 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC | -0.8 | 7.9 | 7.9–9.1 | 5.0–10.5 | 37% | 28% | 0.7% |
| 21 |  Indianapolis Colts | AFC | -1.6 | 7.8 | 7.8–9.2 | 5.0–10.0 | 27% | 15% | 0.4% |
| 22 |  New Orleans Saints | NFC | -1.8 | 8.2 | 8.2–8.8 | 6.0–11.0 | 43% | 39% | 0.5% |
| 23 |  Washington Commanders | NFC | -1.8 | 7.2 | 7.2–9.8 | 5.0–10.0 | 15% | 6% | 0.1% |
| 24 |  New York Giants | NFC | -2.2 | 7.2 | 7.2–9.8 | 5.0–10.0 | 15% | 8% | 0.1% |
| 25 |  Carolina Panthers | NFC | -3.0 | 6.7 | 6.7–10.3 | 4.0–9.0 | 17% | 16% | 0.1% |
| 26 |  Atlanta Falcons | NFC | -3.2 | 6.7 | 6.7–10.3 | 4.0–9.0 | 17% | 18% | 0.1% |
| 27 |  Tennessee Titans | AFC | -4.6 | 6.1 | 6.1–10.9 | 4.0–8.5 | 7% | 3% | 0.0% |
| 28 |  Las Vegas Raiders | AFC | -5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8–11.2 | 3.5–8.0 | 4% | 1% | 0.0% |
| 29 |  New York Jets | AFC | -6.6 | 5.8 | 5.8–11.2 | 3.5–8.0 | 4% | 1% | 0.0% |
| 30 |  Cleveland Browns | AFC | -6.6 | 5.5 | 5.5–11.5 | 3.0–8.0 | 3% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 31 |  Miami Dolphins | AFC | -9.6 | 3.5 | 3.5–13.5 | 1.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 32 |  Arizona Cardinals | NFC | -10.4 | 3.1 | 3.1–13.9 | 1.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
Showing 32 of 32 NFL teams. BBMI Rating = strength rating in net points/game vs an average opponent (the ranking key; opponent-adjusted in-season, market-anchored preseason); Proj W = mean simulated wins (schedule-dependent, tiebreaker only); Win Range = 80% interval (10th–90th percentile); Playoff / Div / SB are simulated postseason probabilities. Preseason basis: market win-total prior + 2025 QB depth charts, so teams resolve into rating tiers before Week 1.
How the BBMI preseason rankings are built
Ranked on a strength rating, not on wins. Teams are ordered by BBMI Rating — the model’s expected points margin per game against an average opponent on a neutral field. We deliberately do not rank on projected wins: two equally strong teams finish with different win totals purely because their schedules differ, so wins are a poor strength measure. Wins only break ties inside a rating tier.
Preseason basis — rating tiers. Team strength is anchored to the market win-total prior (which reflects each team’s schedule) and 2025 QB depth charts. Because no 2026 games have been played, the rating carries talent but little separation, so teams resolve into a handful of rating tiers rather than 32 distinct values. Announced Week-1 starters are folded in during late August, and the rating updates off real opponent-adjusted results (EPA) once the season begins — sharpening the tiers into a continuous, opponent-adjusted strength ranking.
Projected odds. A separate set of 20,000 full-season simulations translates that strength and each team’s actual schedule into projected wins, playoff, division-title, and Super Bowl probabilities, plus an 80% win-total range (10th–90th percentile).
This is a preseason projection. Opponent-adjusted efficiency (EPA) columns return once the 2026 season is under way and games have been played.