BBMI Rank · #31 of 32

Tennessee Titans

Record 3-142025 SeasonPower rating -8.0

Analytics, not picks

Projected

3–14

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense poor · Defense poor · ranked 31st of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #28

EPA/play

-0.110

28th

Pass EPA

-0.146

31st

Rush EPA

-0.147

27th

Defense

EPA #22

EPA/play

+0.083

22nd

Pass def EPA

+0.197

30th

Rush def EPA

-0.024

17th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackD

EPA/dropback: -0.159 (#31)

C.Ward

ReceiversC

YAC EPA: -0.345 (#28)

E.Ayomanor

Running GameC

EPA/rush: -0.117 (#27)

T.Pollard

O-LineC

Stuff rate %: +19.400 (#25)

Pass RushB-

Sack rate %: 6.600 (#18)

CoverageD

Opp pass EPA: 0.197 (#30)

Run DefenseB-

Opp rush EPA: -0.042 (#17)

Special TeamsB+

Net ST EPA: +21.800 (#12)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@DEN	L	12-20	-0.429	-0.146
2	vsLAR	L	19-33	-0.264	+0.115
3	vsIND	L	20-41	-0.212	+0.230
4	@HOU	L	0-26	-0.248	+0.190
5	@ARI	W	22-21	-0.193	+0.128
6	@LV	L	10-20	-0.202	+0.083
7	vsNE	L	13-31	-0.217	+0.120
8	@IND	L	14-38	-0.185	+0.161
9	vsLAC	L	20-27	-0.193	+0.148
11	vsHOU	L	13-16	-0.177	+0.114
12	vsSEA	L	24-30	-0.152	+0.139
13	vsJAX	L	3-25	-0.185	+0.120
14	@CLE	W	31-29	-0.173	+0.095
15	@SF	L	24-37	-0.127	+0.116
16	vsKC	W	26-9	-0.106	+0.066
17	vsNO	L	26-34	-0.110	+0.083
18	@JAX	L	7-41	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

3–14

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Chimere Dike (WR) absence worth ~0.5 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Elic Ayomanor (WR) absence worth ~0.1 points (Hamstring, missed 1 game)
Jeffery Simmons (DEF) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 2 games)
Jihad Ward (DEF) absence worth ~0.1 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Kevin Winston Jr. (DEF) absence worth ~0.5 points (Hamstring, missed 14 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.