BBMI Rank · #12 of 32

Chicago Bears

Record 11-62025 SeasonPower rating +2.4

Analytics, not picks

Projected

11–6

100% playoff · 100% division

Offense elite · Defense below average · ranked 12th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #9

EPA/play

+0.103

9th

Pass EPA

+0.125

20th

Rush EPA

-0.011

3rd

Defense

EPA #23

EPA/play

+0.022

23rd

Pass def EPA

+0.080

18th

Rush def EPA

-0.071

27th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackB-

EPA/dropback: +0.119 (#20)

C.Williams

ReceiversB+

YAC EPA: -0.379 (#12)

R.Odunze

Running GameA

EPA/rush: +0.011 (#3)

D.Swift

O-LineA

Stuff rate %: +16.600 (#2)

Pass RushC+

Sack rate %: 5.600 (#24)

CoverageB-

Opp pass EPA: 0.090 (#18)

Run DefenseC

Opp rush EPA: -0.042 (#27)

Special TeamsB

Net ST EPA: +4 (#15)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	vsMIN	L	24-27	-0.053	-0.083
2	@DET	L	21-52	-0.116	+0.174
3	vsDAL	W	31-14	+0.026	+0.102
4	@LV	W	25-24	-0.020	+0.014
6	@WAS	W	25-24	+0.016	+0.018
7	vsNO	W	26-14	+0.029	-0.033
8	@BAL	L	16-30	+0.033	+0.017
9	@CIN	W	47-42	+0.107	+0.054
10	vsNYG	W	24-20	+0.102	+0.044
11	@MIN	W	19-17	+0.075	+0.009
12	vsPIT	W	31-28	+0.066	+0.015
13	@PHI	W	24-15	+0.062	+0.005
14	@GB	L	21-28	+0.066	+0.033
15	vsCLE	W	31-3	+0.063	-0.035
16	vsGB	W	22-16	+0.069	-0.018
17	@SF	L	38-42	+0.103	+0.022
18	vsDET	L	16-19	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

11–6

Playoff probability

100%

Division win

100%

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Covered the spread in 7 of 8 games — one of the best covers in the league
D'Andre Swift (RB) absence worth ~0.4 points (Quadricep, missed 1 game)
Without Tyrique Stevenson (DEF): ~1.2-point spread swing, -5.3% win probability (Shoulder, missed 6 games)
Without T.J. Edwards (DEF): ~1.3-point spread swing, +5.6% win probability (Hamstring, missed 7 games)
Colston Loveland (WR) absence worth ~0.2 points (Hip, missed 1 game)
Josh Blackwell (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Groin, missed 2 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.