NFC NORTH • 2026 SEASON
Chicago Bears
#8
BBMI rank
+3.6
Rating
10.4–6.6
Proj record
70%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Chicago Bears
MON NOV 2 • 7:15 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Seattle Seahawks
Model assumes: Caleb Williams (CHI) v Sam Darnold (SEA)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at CARW 59–37#19-3.058%
at CARSep 20
vs MINL 3–9#3-4.557%
vs MINSep 28
vs PHIW 27–7#29+3.539%
vs PHIOct 4
vs NYJW 23–12#27-3.569%
vs NYJOct 11
at GBL 7–31#15-1.550%
at GBOct 18
at ATLW 31–23#18-1.049%
at ATLOct 22
vs NEW 30–24#11-3.052%
vs NENov 2at SEAMon 7:15 PM#6+3.0Premium
at SEANov 8
vs TBSun 7:20 PM#22-6.0Premium
vs TBNov 22
vs NOSun 12:00 PM#25-6.5Premium
vs NONov 26
at DETThu 12:00 PM#9+2.5Premium
at DETDec 6
vs JAXSun 12:00 PM#10-3.0Premium
vs JAXDec 13
at MIASun 12:00 PM#31-5.5Premium
at MIADec 19
at BUFSat 7:20 PM#2+3.5Premium
at BUFDec 25vs GBFri 12:00 PM#15-1.0Premium
vs GBJan 3vs DETSun 3:25 PM#9-1.5Premium
vs DETJan 10at MINSun 12:00 PM#3+1.5Premium
at MINModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#10#15#20
#8
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #1007-28 #1509-15 #1509-22 #2209-29 #1310-06 #1210-13 #1410-20 #1010-27 #8
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the NFC North16%
Make the playoffs70%
No. 1 seed (bye)4%
Reach the Super Bowl8%
Win the Super Bowl4%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
10.4
78910111213
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 8.5 to 12. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.052#11
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.009#15
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.154#10
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.082#12
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.038#13
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.097#15
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.9#5
Projected wins10.4#10
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Bears
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on CHI
4–3
Picks against
+0.6u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.