BBMI Rank · #10 of 32

Baltimore Ravens

Record 8-92025 SeasonPower rating +2.7

Analytics, not picks

Projected

8–9

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense elite · Defense below average · ranked 10th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #12

EPA/play

+0.056

12th

Pass EPA

+0.053

11th

Rush EPA

+0.031

5th

Defense

EPA #19

EPA/play

+0.002

19th

Pass def EPA

+0.103

24th

Rush def EPA

-0.137

12th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackB+

EPA/dropback: +0.076 (#11)

L.Jackson

ReceiversC+

YAC EPA: -0.347 (#21)

Z.Flowers

Running GameA-

EPA/rush: +0.038 (#5)

D.Henry

O-LineB+

Stuff rate %: +17.800 (#12)

Pass RushC+

Sack rate %: 4.100 (#22)

CoverageC+

Opp pass EPA: 0.096 (#24)

Run DefenseB+

Opp rush EPA: -0.115 (#12)

Special TeamsB+

Net ST EPA: -2.600 (#11)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@BUF	L	40-41	+0.394	+0.256
2	vsCLE	W	41-17	+0.238	-0.022
3	vsDET	L	30-38	+0.185	+0.121
4	@KC	L	20-37	+0.109	+0.147
5	vsHOU	L	10-44	+0.005	+0.196
6	vsLAR	L	3-17	-0.074	+0.154
8	vsCHI	W	30-16	-0.016	+0.133
9	@MIA	W	28-6	+0.025	+0.071
10	@MIN	W	27-19	+0.025	+0.045
11	@CLE	W	23-16	+0.002	-0.032
12	vsNYJ	W	23-10	+0.011	-0.057
13	vsCIN	L	14-32	-0.040	-0.046
14	vsPIT	L	22-27	-0.031	-0.006
15	@CIN	W	24-0	+0.001	-0.048
16	vsNE	L	24-28	+0.014	-0.015
17	@GB	W	41-24	+0.056	+0.002
18	@PIT	L	24-26	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

8–9

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Ranked 10th in BBMI Composite Rating — top 10 in the NFL
Kyle Hamilton (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Groin, missed 1 game)
Kyle Van Noy (DEF) absence worth ~0.5 points (Hamstring, missed 1 game)
Chidobe Awuzie (DEF) absence worth ~0.6 points (Hamstring, missed 3 games)
Roquan Smith (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Hamstring, missed 2 games)
Lamar Jackson (QB) absence worth ~0.6 points (Hamstring, missed 4 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.