BBMI Rank · #22 of 32

New Orleans Saints

Record 6-112025 SeasonPower rating -1.9

Analytics, not picks

Projected

6–11

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense below average · Defense elite · ranked 22nd of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #28

EPA/play

-0.044

28th

Pass EPA

-0.001

25th

Rush EPA

-0.187

31st

Defense

EPA #9

EPA/play

-0.085

9th

Pass def EPA

+0.055

14th

Rush def EPA

-0.132

5th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackC

EPA/dropback: +0.002 (#25)

T.Shough

ReceiversD

YAC EPA: -0.365 (#31)

C.Olave

Running GameD

EPA/rush: -0.154 (#31)

A.Kamara

O-LineC+

Stuff rate %: +19.700 (#24)

Pass RushA-

Sack rate %: 7.600 (#7)

CoverageB

Opp pass EPA: 0.018 (#14)

Run DefenseA-

Opp rush EPA: -0.131 (#5)

Special TeamsD

Net ST EPA: -65.300 (#32)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	vsARI	L	13-20	-0.057	+0.062
2	vsSF	L	21-26	-0.054	+0.077
3	@SEA	L	13-44	-0.075	+0.090
4	@BUF	L	19-31	-0.078	+0.112
5	vsNYG	W	26-14	-0.031	+0.017
6	vsNE	L	19-25	-0.037	+0.047
7	@CHI	L	14-26	-0.072	+0.052
8	vsTB	L	3-23	-0.146	+0.013
9	@LAR	L	10-34	-0.172	+0.063
10	@CAR	W	17-7	-0.122	+0.006
12	vsATL	L	10-24	-0.138	-0.012
13	@MIA	L	17-21	-0.143	-0.030
14	@TB	W	24-20	-0.123	-0.047
15	vsCAR	W	20-17	-0.090	-0.028
16	vsNYJ	W	29-6	-0.080	-0.078
17	@TEN	W	34-26	-0.044	-0.085
18	@ATL	L	17-19	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

6–11

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Missing key starters: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave
Without John Ridgeway (DEF): ~1.0-point spread swing, +4.4% win probability (Shoulder, missed 11 games)
Alontae Taylor (DEF) absence worth ~0.8 points (undisclosed injury, missed 8 games)
Isaac Yiadom (DEF) absence worth ~0.9 points (Hamstring, missed 12 games)
Alvin Kamara (RB) absence worth ~0.8 points (Ankle, missed 6 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.