AFC EAST • 2026 SEASON
New England Patriots
#11
BBMI rank
+4.2
Rating
10.0–7.0
Proj record
67%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
New England Patriots
SUN NOV 1 • 3:25 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Miami Dolphins
Model assumes: Drake Maye (NE) v Malik Willis (MIA)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 9
at SEAL 10–13#6+3.041%
at SEASep 20
vs PITW 20–3#12-4.565%
vs PITSep 27
at JAXL 6–35#10+3.050%
at JAXOct 4
at BUFW 29–26#2+7.029%
at BUFOct 11
vs LVW 45–17#23-3.568%
vs LVOct 18
vs NYJW 26–19#27-7.079%
vs NYJOct 22
at CHIL 24–30#8+3.048%
at CHINov 1at MIASun 3:25 PM#31-7.0Premium
at MIANov 8
vs GBSun 3:25 PM#15-2.5Premium
vs GBNov 15
at DETSun 8:30 AM#90.0Premium
at DETNov 29
at LACSun 7:20 PM#30+2.5Premium
at LACDec 6vs BUFSun 3:25 PM#2+1.0Premium
vs BUFDec 10
vs MINThu 7:15 PM#3-4.5Premium
vs MINDec 21
at KCMon 7:15 PM#4+2.5Premium
at KCDec 27at NYJSun 12:00 PM#27-6.5Premium
at NYJJan 3
vs DENSun 12:00 PM#5-2.5Premium
vs DENJan 10vs MIASun 12:00 PM#31-10.5Premium
vs MIAModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#5#10#15
#11
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #1607-28 #1009-15 #909-22 #509-29 #1410-06 #1010-13 #810-20 #610-27 #11
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC East15%
Make the playoffs67%
No. 1 seed (bye)3%
Reach the Super Bowl7%
Win the Super Bowl3%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
10.0
78910111213
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 8 to 12. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.054#10
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.015#16
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.218#5
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.200#28
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.073#17
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.081#21
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.5#13
Projected wins10.0#11
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Patriots
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on NE
3–2
Picks against
+0.7u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks, 2 of them pushes.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.