New England Patriots
Offense elite · Defense above average · ranked 3rd of 32 by power rating.
Offense
EPA #15Defense
EPA #13EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.
EPA trend by week
Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).
Position group grades
Schedule & results
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Score | Off EPA | Def EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs LV | L | 13-20 | -0.046 | +0.101 |
| 2 | @ MIA | W | 33-27 | +0.131 | +0.099 |
| 3 | vs PIT | L | 14-21 | +0.041 | +0.080 |
| 4 | vs CAR | W | 42-13 | +0.134 | +0.048 |
| 5 | @ BUF | W | 23-20 | +0.117 | +0.036 |
| 6 | @ NO | W | 25-19 | +0.125 | +0.015 |
| 7 | @ TEN | W | 31-13 | +0.153 | -0.043 |
| 8 | vs CLE | W | 32-13 | +0.142 | -0.092 |
| 9 | vs ATL | W | 24-23 | +0.120 | -0.067 |
| 10 | @ TB | W | 28-23 | +0.132 | -0.048 |
| 11 | vs NYJ | W | 27-14 | +0.133 | -0.053 |
| 12 | @ CIN | W | 26-20 | +0.117 | -0.071 |
| 13 | vs NYG | W | 33-15 | +0.122 | -0.072 |
| 15 | vsBUF | L | 31-35 | +0.136 | -0.025 |
| 16 | @ BAL | W | 28-24 | +0.145 | -0.008 |
| 17 | @NYJ | W | 42-10 | +0.192 | -0.030 |
| 18 | vsMIA | W | 38-10 | — | — |
Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.
Season projections
Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.
Insights
- Ranked 3rd in BBMI Composite Rating
- Offensive EPA (0.192/play) ranks 1th in the NFL
- Heavily pass-dependent — pass offense EPA 0.336 vs rush -0.096
- On a 3+ game winning streak
- Without Harold Landry III (DEF): ~2.5-point spread swing, +10.4% win probability (undisclosed injury, missed 4 games)
- Khyiris Tonga (DEF) absence worth ~0.6 points (undisclosed injury, missed 3 games)
- Mack Hollins (WR) absence worth ~0.5 points (undisclosed injury, missed 3 games)
- Christian Gonzalez (DEF) absence worth ~0.6 points (Hamstring, missed 3 games)
- Christian Barmore (DEF) absence worth ~0.1 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Elo rating history
How these ratings are built
BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.
NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.