BBMI Rank · #27 of 32

Carolina Panthers

Record 8-92025 SeasonPower rating -4.7

Analytics, not picks

Projected

8–9

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense poor · Defense poor · ranked 27th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #19

EPA/play

-0.059

19th

Pass EPA

-0.002

24th

Rush EPA

-0.076

20th

Defense

EPA #24

EPA/play

+0.069

24th

Pass def EPA

+0.141

20th

Rush def EPA

-0.038

24th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackC+

EPA/dropback: +0.006 (#24)

B.Young

ReceiversB-

YAC EPA: -0.296 (#19)

T.McMillan

Running GameB-

EPA/rush: -0.076 (#20)

R.Dowdle

O-LineB

Stuff rate %: +16.500 (#13)

Pass RushC

Sack rate %: 5.100 (#27)

CoverageB-

Opp pass EPA: 0.125 (#20)

Run DefenseC+

Opp rush EPA: -0.025 (#24)

Special TeamsB-

Net ST EPA: +6.100 (#18)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@JAX	L	10-26	-0.176	+0.103
2	@ARI	L	22-27	-0.064	+0.094
3	vsATL	W	30-0	-0.042	-0.067
4	@NE	L	13-42	-0.039	+0.057
5	vsMIA	W	27-24	+0.010	+0.065
6	vsDAL	W	30-27	+0.050	+0.106
7	@NYJ	W	13-6	+0.026	+0.034
8	vsBUF	L	9-40	-0.035	+0.087
9	@GB	W	16-13	-0.013	+0.074
10	vsNO	L	7-17	-0.059	+0.085
11	@ATL	W	30-27	-0.035	+0.085
12	@SF	L	9-20	-0.064	+0.073
13	vsLAR	W	31-28	-0.028	+0.083
15	@NO	L	17-20	-0.012	+0.088
16	vsTB	W	23-20	+0.003	+0.087
17	vsSEA	L	10-27	-0.059	+0.069
18	@TB	L	14-16	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

8–9

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Bryce Young (QB) absence worth ~0.6 points (Ankle, missed 1 game)
Without A'Shawn Robinson (DEF): ~2.5-point spread swing, +10.4% win probability (undisclosed injury, missed 2 games)
Rico Dowdle (WR) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Jaycee Horn (DEF) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Patrick Jones II (DEF) absence worth ~0.7 points (undisclosed injury, missed 13 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.