How NFL Analytics Works
The BBMI Composite Rating
The BBMI Composite Rating is a single number representing how many points above or below average an NFL team is. It blends three independent rating systems, each capturing different information about team quality:
- Elo ratings (40%) — from the open-source nfelo project. Score-based power ratings with QB adjustments, home field, and rest days. Captures who's winning and by how much.
- EPA efficiency (40%) — computed from nflverse play-by-play data. Expected Points Added per play measures the quality of each offensive and defensive snap. Captures how well a team plays, independent of the final score.
- Opponent-adjusted box scores (20%) — from Pro Football Reference game logs with iterative opponent quality adjustment. Captures schedule-adjusted performance.
Each source is normalized and weighted. The composite updates weekly during the NFL season.
What is EPA?
EPA (Expected Points Added) measures the value of each play in terms of expected points. A first down on your own 20-yard line is worth about 0.5 expected points. A touchdown from the 5-yard line is worth about 6.3. Every play either adds or subtracts expected points based on the down, distance, yard line, and result.
EPA/play tells you how efficient a team is per snap. A team with +0.10 offensive EPA/play gains about 0.10 expected points more than average on every play — over 65 plays per game, that's about 6.5 points better than average. It's the most granular publicly available measure of team quality.
Why BBMI Doesn't Offer NFL Picks
BBMI conducted an extensive investigation into NFL spread and total prediction during April 2026, testing 12 independent approaches across four seasons of data. We tested our own opponent-adjusted model, nfelo Elo ratings, calibrated EPA projections, three-source blending, ATS performance at high edge thresholds, conditional subsets by week and spread size, and weather effects on totals.
Every test confirmed that NFL closing lines are efficient against all publicly available models. No combination of Elo ratings, EPA metrics, or opponent-adjusted statistics could consistently beat the market. The NFL has 32 teams, enormous public attention, and the sharpest betting lines in sports — the market already incorporates everything these models capture and more.
Rather than offer picks at coinflip accuracy, we provide analytical tools and data that inform your own football analysis. We believe this transparency is what sets BBMI apart.
Data Sources
| Source | Data | Update |
|---|---|---|
| nflverse | Play-by-play with EPA, CPOE, WPA | Weekly |
| nfelo | Elo ratings with QB model | Weekly |
| Pro Football Reference | Team game logs and box scores | Weekly |
| Odds API | Vegas spreads and totals (display only) | Pre-game |
| Open-Meteo | Game-day weather for outdoor stadiums | Game-day |
NFL vs. Our Other Sports
BBMI's NCAA basketball, football, baseball, and MLB models generate validated betting picks because those markets have exploitable inefficiencies — 130+ teams, thin markets, less sharp money, and information asymmetry the model can capture. The NFL is different: 32 teams, massive public attention, and closing lines that already reflect all available information. Different markets require different honest assessments.