NFC EAST • 2026 SEASON
Dallas Cowboys
#16
BBMI rank
+1.4
Rating
9.0–8.0
Proj record
43%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
Game Picks →
Washington Commanders
SUN SEP 20 • 3:25 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Dallas Cowboys
—
Model line
-3.5
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at NYGL 20–28#24-3.055%
at NYGSep 20vs WASSun 3:25 PM#23-3.5
vs WASSep 27
vs BALSun 3:25 PM#2+2.5
vs BALOct 4
at HOUSun 12:00 PM#14+2.5
at HOUOct 8
vs TBThu 7:15 PM#20-3.5
vs TBOct 18
at GBSun 7:20 PM#12+3.0
at GBOct 26
at PHIMon 7:15 PM#9+3.0
at PHINov 1
vs ARISun 12:00 PM#32-10.5
vs ARINov 8
at INDSun 12:00 PM#21-1.5
at INDNov 15
vs SFSun 3:25 PM#6-1.0
vs SFNov 22
vs TENSun 12:00 PM#27-6.5
vs TENNov 26vs PHIThu 3:30 PM#9-1.5
vs PHIDec 7
at SEAMon 7:15 PM#5+4.5
at SEADec 20
at LARSun 3:25 PM#1+6.0
at LARDec 27
vs JAXSun 7:20 PM#17-3.0
vs JAXJan 3vs NYGSun 12:00 PM#24-4.5
vs NYGJan 10at WASSun 12:00 PM#23-1.5
at WASRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the NFC East30%
Make the playoffs43%
No. 1 seed (bye)3%
Reach the Super Bowl4%
Win the Super Bowl2%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims9.0
5678910111213
Middle half of the simulations: 8 to 10 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 6.5 to 11.5. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.110#5
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.182#31
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.212#3
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.023#9
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.267#30
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.019#29
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.5#4
Projected wins9.0#16
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Cowboys
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on DAL
1–0
Picks against
+0.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.