BBMI Rank · #21 of 32

Dallas Cowboys

Record 7-9-12025 SeasonPower rating -1.9

Analytics, not picks

Projected

7–10

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense elite · Defense poor · ranked 21st of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #9

EPA/play

+0.110

9th

Pass EPA

+0.212

7th

Rush EPA

-0.023

9th

Defense

EPA #29

EPA/play

+0.182

29th

Pass def EPA

+0.267

31st

Rush def EPA

+0.019

28th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackA-

EPA/dropback: +0.191 (#7)

D.Prescott

ReceiversB-

YAC EPA: -0.310 (#17)

G.Pickens

Running GameB+

EPA/rush: -0.008 (#9)

J.Williams

O-LineA

Stuff rate %: +15.300 (#4)

Pass RushD

Sack rate %: 5.200 (#29)

CoverageD

Opp pass EPA: 0.240 (#31)

Run DefenseC

Opp rush EPA: 0.031 (#28)

Special TeamsB

Net ST EPA: +4.200 (#13)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@PHI	L	20-24	+0.104	+0.160
2	vsNYG	W	40-37	+0.137	+0.194
3	@CHI	L	14-31	+0.078	+0.221
4	vsGB	T	40-40	+0.154	+0.262
5	@NYJ	W	37-22	+0.202	+0.199
6	@CAR	L	27-30	+0.213	+0.198
7	vsWAS	W	44-22	+0.203	+0.127
8	@DEN	L	24-44	+0.181	+0.172
9	vsARI	L	17-27	+0.125	+0.164
11	@LV	W	33-16	+0.132	+0.106
12	vsPHI	W	24-21	+0.109	+0.090
13	vsKC	W	31-28	+0.133	+0.103
14	@DET	L	30-44	+0.106	+0.125
15	vsMIN	L	26-34	+0.106	+0.138
16	vsLAC	L	17-34	+0.094	+0.175
17	@WAS	W	30-23	+0.110	+0.182
18	@NYG	L	17-34	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

7–10

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Offensive EPA (0.110/play) ranks 5th in the NFL
Missing key starters: Javonte Williams
Sam Williams (RB) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
DaRon Bland (DEF) absence worth ~0.7 points (Foot, missed 5 games)
Jadeveon Clowney (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (undisclosed injury, missed 3 games)
CeeDee Lamb (WR) absence worth ~0.5 points (Ankle, missed 4 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.