BBMI Rank · #20 of 32

Cincinnati Bengals

Record 6-112025 SeasonPower rating -1.3

Analytics, not picks

Projected

6–11

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense elite · Defense poor · ranked 20th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #13

EPA/play

+0.062

13th

Pass EPA

+0.009

18th

Rush EPA

-0.003

7th

Defense

EPA #29

EPA/play

+0.104

29th

Pass def EPA

+0.208

25th

Rush def EPA

+0.026

31st

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackB-

EPA/dropback: +0.056 (#18)

J.Burrow

ReceiversC+

YAC EPA: -0.325 (#24)

J.Chase

Running GameA-

EPA/rush: +0.009 (#7)

C.Brown

O-LineA

Stuff rate %: +14 (#1)

Pass RushD

Sack rate %: 5.500 (#32)

CoverageC

Opp pass EPA: 0.183 (#25)

Run DefenseD

Opp rush EPA: 0.037 (#31)

Special TeamsA-

Net ST EPA: +21.800 (#7)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@CLE	W	17-16	-0.073	-0.032
2	vsJAX	W	31-27	-0.025	+0.033
3	@MIN	L	10-48	-0.270	+0.054
4	@DEN	L	3-28	-0.249	+0.099
5	vsDET	L	24-37	-0.192	+0.125
6	@GB	L	18-27	-0.126	+0.144
7	vsPIT	W	33-31	-0.039	+0.176
8	vsNYJ	L	38-39	+0.012	+0.206
9	vsCHI	L	42-47	+0.048	+0.246
11	@PIT	L	12-34	+0.011	+0.236
12	vsNE	L	20-26	-0.018	+0.204
13	@BAL	W	32-14	-0.012	+0.125
14	@BUF	L	34-39	+0.013	+0.147
15	vsBAL	L	0-24	-0.032	+0.154
16	@MIA	W	45-21	+0.022	+0.123
17	vsARI	W	37-14	+0.062	+0.104
18	vsCLE	L	18-20	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

6–11

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Joseph Ossai (DEF) absence worth ~0.8 points (undisclosed injury, missed 3 games)
Without Joe Burrow (QB): ~1.1-point spread swing, +4.9% win probability (Toe, missed 9 games)
Tee Higgins (WR) absence worth ~0.4 points (Concussion, missed 2 games)
Cedric Johnson (DEF) absence worth ~0.9 points (Calf, missed 7 games)
Shaka Heyward (DEF) absence worth ~0.6 points (undisclosed injury, missed 4 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.