Team Pages/NFC West/San Francisco 49ers
SF
NFC WEST • 2026 SEASON

San Francisco 49ers

Record 1-0vs line 1–0 ATSLast W 27–7 at LARNext Sep 20 vs MIA
#6
BBMI rank
+3.6
Rating
10.2–6.8
Proj record
66%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.

Next game

Game Picks →
MIA
Miami Dolphins
#31 • -9.6 • AFC East
SUN SEP 20 • 3:25 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
San Francisco 49ers
#6 • +3.6 • home
SF
—
Model line
-13.0
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board, week by week as it prices
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 10
LARat LAR
W 27–7#1+3.540%
Sep 20
MIAvs MIA
Sun 3:25 PM#31-13.0
Sep 27
ARIvs ARI
Sun 3:05 PM#32-11.5
Oct 4
DENvs DEN
Sun 3:25 PM#13-2.5
Oct 11
SEAat SEA
Sun 3:25 PM#5+3.5
Oct 19
WASvs WAS
Mon 7:15 PM#23-5.5
Oct 25
ATLat ATL
Sun 12:00 PM#26-4.5
Nov 8
LVvs LV
Sun 3:05 PM#28-8.5
Nov 15
DALat DAL
Sun 3:25 PM#16+1.0
Nov 22
MINvs MIN
Sun 7:20 PM#18-3.5
Nov 29
SEAvs SEA
Sun 3:25 PM#5-1.5
Dec 6
NYGat NYG
Sun 12:00 PM#24-3.0
Dec 13
LARvs LAR
Sun 3:25 PM#1+2.5
Dec 17
LACat LAC
Thu 7:15 PM#11+2.5
Dec 27
KCat KC
Sun 3:25 PM#8+3.0
Jan 3
PHIvs PHI
Sun 7:20 PM#9-1.5
Jan 10
ARIat ARI
Sun 12:00 PM#32-8.5

Ranking over time

no series published
The weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Win the NFC West17%
Make the playoffs66%
No. 1 seed (bye)9%
Reach the Super Bowl9%
Win the Super Bowl4%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
10.2
7891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 12 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 8 to 13. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.152#2
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.071#25
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.206#5
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.041#13
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.136#23
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.070#19
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.3#25
Projected wins10.2#8
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.

BBMI picks on the 49ers

2026 • ATS
0–0
Picks on SF
1–0
Picks against
+0.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.