NFL · POSTSEASON · 2026 SEASON

Playoff Pulse.

The BBMI model’s projected road to the Super Bowl. Fourteen teams, four division winners and three wild cards per conference, with a first-round bye for each No. 1 seed. San Francisco is the model’s favorite at 22% to win it. Matchups past the wild-card round show the most likely path, not a fixed bracket.

Season simulation

Field · 8 division, 6 wild card

San Francisco

Model favorite · 22% title odds

Clubs at 15%+ to make the field

Clubs simulated

HOW TO READ THIS

The percentage beside each club is its chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated season — not conditional on this bracket. Seeds 1 through 4 are reserved for division winners regardless of record, which is why a wild card with more projected wins can still seed below a division champion. The divisional and conference-championship columns carry no percentage: this simulation publishes reach-the-field, the No. 1 seed, winning the conference and winning the Super Bowl, but not arriving at those two middle rounds. They are left blank rather than filled from the conference number, which is a different event. The seeded bracket itself is derived from the published division and playoff odds.

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Road to the Super Bowl

Projected 14-team field · seven per conference

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCEseeds 1–7 · No. 1 bye

WILD CARD

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Wild Card · at Cincinnati

7Pittsburgh62%

2Cincinnati88%

BBMI Cincinnatimakes the field 88%

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Wild Card · at Kansas City

6New England67%

3Kansas City88%

BBMI Kansas Citymakes the field 88%

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Wild Card · at Jacksonville

5Denver88%

4Jacksonville89%

BBMI Jacksonvillemakes the field 89%

FIRST-ROUND BYE

Buffalo, as the projected No. 1 seed, is idle. It holds the bye in 43% of simulated seasons.

DIVISIONALreach odds not published

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Divisional · at Buffalo

5Denver—

1Buffalo—

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Divisional · at Cincinnati

3Kansas City—

2Cincinnati—

AFC CHAMPIONSHIPreach odds not published

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

AFC Championship

2Cincinnati—

1Buffalo—

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCEseeds 1–7 · No. 1 bye

WILD CARD

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Wild Card · at Minnesota

7Chicago70%

2Minnesota92%

BBMI Minnesotamakes the field 92%

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Wild Card · at New York Giants

6Seattle78%

3New York Giants59%

BBMI Seattlemakes the field 78%

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Wild Card · at Carolina

5Detroit81%

4Carolina37%

BBMI Detroitmakes the field 81%

FIRST-ROUND BYE

San Francisco, as the projected No. 1 seed, is idle. It holds the bye in 60% of simulated seasons.

DIVISIONALreach odds not published

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Divisional · at San Francisco

5Detroit—

1San Francisco—

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Divisional · at Minnesota

3New York Giants—

2Minnesota—

NFC CHAMPIONSHIPreach odds not published

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

NFC Championship

2Minnesota—

1San Francisco—

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

SUPER BOWL · NEUTRAL SITE

1Buffalo31%

1San Francisco38%

BBMI San Franciscowins it 22%

31% chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated seasonBBMI projected winnerDivisional and conference championship: reach odds not published for this sport

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

Playoff contenders

all 32 clubs

#TEAMPROJ W–LWIN DIVMAKE FIELD#1 SEEDWIN SB

1San Francisco1NFC West13.1–3.987%99%60%22%

2Buffalo1AFC East12.6–4.485%98%43%17%

3Minnesota2NFC North11.8–5.253%92%20%5%

4Jacksonville4AFC South10.7–6.385%89%7%4%

5Cincinnati2AFC North11.3–5.757%88%14%7%

6Kansas City3AFC West11.2–5.852%88%15%7%

7Denver5AFC West11.2–5.847%88%13%6%

8Detroit5NFC North10.9–6.130%81%9%6%

9Seattle6NFC West10.7–6.311%78%5%9%

10Chicago7NFC North10.4–6.616%70%4%4%

11New England6AFC East10.0–7.015%67%3%3%

12Pittsburgh7AFC North10.0–7.021%62%3%1%

13New York Giants3NFC East8.9–8.157%59%<1%<1%

14BaltimoreAFC North9.4–7.610%47%1%2%

15Los Angeles RamsNFC West9.4–7.63%46%<1%4%

16ClevelandAFC North9.3–7.711%45%1%<1%

17DallasNFC East8.3–8.736%40%<1%1%

18Carolina4NFC South7.7–9.336%37%<1%<1%

19AtlantaNFC South7.7–9.334%35%<1%<1%

20Green BayNFC North8.6–8.42%24%<1%<1%

21Tampa BayNFC South6.9–10.120%21%0%<1%

22HoustonAFC South7.8–9.211%19%0%<1%

23New OrleansNFC South6.3–10.710%11%0%0%

24WashingtonNFC East6.2–10.85%6%0%<1%

25IndianapolisAFC South6.7–10.34%6%0%0%

26Las VegasAFC West6.8–10.2<1%4%0%0%

27PhiladelphiaNFC East5.3–11.72%2%0%0%

28New York JetsAFC East5.9–11.1<1%1%0%0%

29ArizonaNFC West5.0–12.00%<1%0%0%

30Los Angeles ChargersAFC West4.4–12.60%<1%0%0%

31TennesseeAFC South3.6–13.4<1%<1%0%0%

32MiamiAFC East3.6–13.40%0%0%0%

Projected record is the expected win total over the simulated seasons, so it carries a decimal and will not match any single season exactly. #1 seed is the conference No. 1 and the bye that comes with it. Percentages are whole numbers because the simulation’s run-to-run noise is larger than a tenth of a point.

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

The projected field

derived from published odds

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

SDTEAMBIDMAKE

1BuffaloAFC EastDIV98%

2CincinnatiAFC NorthDIV88%

3Kansas CityAFC WestDIV88%

4JacksonvilleAFC SouthDIV89%

5DenverAFC WestWC88%

6New EnglandAFC EastWC67%

7PittsburghAFC NorthWC62%

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

SDTEAMBIDMAKE

1San FranciscoNFC WestDIV99%

2MinnesotaNFC NorthDIV92%

3New York GiantsNFC EastDIV59%

4CarolinaNFC SouthDIV37%

5DetroitNFC NorthWC81%

6SeattleNFC WestWC78%

7ChicagoNFC NorthWC70%

DIV is a division title, WC a wild card. The artboard shows a slot column — how often a club held that exact seed — which this feed does not publish, so the make-the-field number stands in its place. The seeds themselves are derived: the best division odds in each division take the four division slots, ordered by projected wins, and the three best remaining playoff odds fill 5 through 7.

Last updated: Oct 28, 2026, 8:19 AM CDT

On the bubble

25% to 55% to make the field

Baltimore9.4–7.647%

Los Angeles Rams9.4–7.646%

Cleveland9.3–7.745%

Dallas8.3–8.740%

Carolina7.7–9.337%

Atlanta7.7–9.335%

These are the clubs the season actually turns on. One division split moves them into the field or out of it, which is not true of the clubs above 55% or below 25%.

Probabilities may not add to 100%. Tiebreakers are applied in full through strength of victory. All results are model projections, not guarantees.