NFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#22
BBMI rank
+1.2
Rating
6.9–10.1
Proj record
21%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Atlanta Falcons
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Model assumes: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) v Baker Mayfield (TB)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at CINL 27–33#7+3.534%
at CINSep 20
vs CLEL 19–23#16-8.071%
vs CLESep 27
vs MINL 16–23#3+1.040%
vs MINOct 4
vs GBL 14–17#15+3.045%
vs GBOct 8
at DALW 24–16#20+9.523%
at DALOct 18
vs PITL 19–26#12+2.538%
vs PITOct 25
at CARW 43–13#19+3.037%
at CARNov 1vs ATLSun 12:00 PM#18-2.5Premium
vs ATLNov 8
at CHISun 7:20 PM#8+6.0Premium
at CHINov 22
at DETSun 12:00 PM#9+4.5Premium
at DETNov 30vs CARMon 7:15 PM#19-3.5Premium
vs CARDec 6
vs LACSun 12:00 PM#30+1.5Premium
vs LACDec 13
at BALSun 12:00 PM#14+6.0Premium
at BALDec 20
vs NOSun 12:00 PM#25-3.5Premium
vs NODec 27at ATLSun 12:00 PM#18-1.5Premium
at ATLJan 3
vs LARSun 12:00 PM#13+4.5Premium
vs LARJan 10at NOSun 12:00 PM#25-1.5Premium
at NOModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#20#25#30
#23
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #2007-28 #2009-15 #2109-22 #2109-29 #3010-06 #3010-13 #2810-20 #2810-27 #23
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the NFC South20%
Make the playoffs21%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl1%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
6.9
45678910
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 8 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 5 to 9. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.081#28
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.107#3
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.130#30
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.011#8
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.081#2
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.160#5
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.5#12
Projected wins6.9#22
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Buccaneers
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on TB
5–1
Picks against
+3.5u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks, 1 of them pushes.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.