BBMI Rank · #23 of 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record 8-92025 SeasonPower rating -1.9

Analytics, not picks

Projected

8–9

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense below average · Defense below average · ranked 23rd of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #19

EPA/play

-0.004

19th

Pass EPA

+0.074

23rd

Rush EPA

-0.070

26th

Defense

EPA #11

EPA/play

+0.045

11th

Pass def EPA

+0.098

21st

Rush def EPA

-0.111

4th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackC+

EPA/dropback: +0.067 (#23)

B.Mayfield

ReceiversB+

YAC EPA: -0.361 (#11)

E.Egbuka

Running GameC

EPA/rush: -0.091 (#26)

B.Irving

O-LineB

Stuff rate %: +21.400 (#16)

Pass RushA-

Sack rate %: 5.500 (#8)

CoverageC+

Opp pass EPA: 0.081 (#21)

Run DefenseA

Opp rush EPA: -0.117 (#4)

Special TeamsC

Net ST EPA: -25.600 (#25)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@ATL	W	23-20	+0.140	+0.075
2	@HOU	W	20-19	+0.146	-0.008
3	vsNYJ	W	29-27	+0.087	-0.053
4	vsPHI	L	25-31	+0.027	-0.059
5	@SEA	W	38-35	+0.120	+0.041
6	vsSF	W	30-19	+0.152	+0.013
7	@DET	L	9-24	+0.055	-0.006
8	@NO	W	23-3	+0.015	-0.092
10	vsNE	L	23-28	+0.021	-0.044
11	@BUF	L	32-44	+0.029	+0.008
12	@LAR	L	7-34	-0.035	+0.018
13	vsARI	W	20-17	-0.035	+0.012
14	vsNO	L	20-24	-0.051	+0.010
15	vsATL	L	28-29	-0.024	+0.034
16	@CAR	L	20-23	-0.010	+0.043
17	@MIA	L	17-20	-0.004	+0.045
18	vsCAR	W	16-14	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

8–9

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Zyon McCollum (DEF) absence worth ~0.7 points (undisclosed injury, missed 9 games)
Jamel Dean (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Hip, missed 3 games)
Christian Izien (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (Oblique, missed 6 games)
Cade Otton (WR) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 2 games)
Benjamin Morrison (DEF) absence worth ~0.3 points (Quadricep, missed 5 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.