DATA-DRIVEN SPORTS INSIGHTS

Better Models. Smarter Picks.

Built by an actuary, BBMI’s transparent, probability-driven models find edges before the market moves. Every pick is locked before the game, graded in public, and kept on the record.

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Data-driven models

Thousands of simulations power our probabilistic projections.

Verified performance

Every pick is graded in public. Nothing is hidden.

Market awareness

We compare our numbers to the market to find real edges.

Research first

Continuous testing and validation keep our models sharp.

MethodologyHow the NFL model works

An opponent-adjusted efficiency rating built from every snap in the league, blended with what the market thought before the season started, then run through a game simulator.

What it reads

Play-by-play expected points added, every offensive snap, from nflverse
A league-wide opponent adjustment, so a unit is credited for who it played
A market win-total prior that carries the early weeks and fades as games accrue
Situational context: home field, rest, short weeks, key injuries
Game-day weather for outdoor stadiums, on the totals side

What it produces

A single rating per team: points above or below average on a neutral field
Per-game projected margin, total and win probability
Playoff odds, seeding and title odds from simulating the rest of the schedule with tiebreakers resolved

What we publish

Totals against the market
Spreads against the market
Both tiered by how far the model sits from the line
Closing-line value graded alongside the win rate on both

Not claimed

This is the sharpest, most heavily bet market in sports, so the bands are deliberately narrow. The widest spread disagreements are excluded rather than sold, because that band tested worst, and closing-line value is graded next to the win rate so the market itself checks the model.

Read the full NFL methodology →See the NFL record →