AFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Indianapolis Colts
#21
BBMI rank
-1.6
Rating
7.8–9.2
Proj record
27%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
Game Picks →Indianapolis Colts
SUN SEP 20 • 7:20 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Kansas City Chiefs
—
Model line
+6.5
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs BALL 23–41#2+3.035%
vs BALSep 20at KCSun 7:20 PM#8+6.5
at KCSep 27
vs HOUSun 12:00 PM#14+1.5
vs HOUOct 4
at WASSun 8:30 AM#23+1.5
at WASOct 11
at PITSun 12:00 PM#19+2.5
at PITOct 18
vs TENSun 12:00 PM#27-3.5
vs TENOct 25
at MINSun 12:00 PM#18+2.5
at MINNov 1
at JAXSun 12:00 PM#17+4.5
at JAXNov 8
vs DALSun 12:00 PM#16+1.5
vs DALNov 15
vs MIASun 12:00 PM#31-6.5
vs MIANov 19at HOUThu 7:15 PM#14+4.5
at HOUNov 29
vs NYGSun 12:00 PM#24-2.5
vs NYGDec 13
at PHISun 12:00 PM#9+5.5
at PHIDec 20at TENSun 12:00 PM#27-1.5
at TENDec 27
vs CINSun 12:00 PM#7+1.5
vs CINJan 3
at CLESun 12:00 PM#30-2.5
at CLEJan 10vs JAXSun 12:00 PM#17-1.5
vs JAXRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the AFC South15%
Make the playoffs27%
No. 1 seed (bye)1%
Reach the Super Bowl1%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims7.8
4567891011
Middle half of the simulations: 7 to 9 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 5 to 10. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.027#15
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.042#19
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.122#11
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.071#1
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.086#18
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.088#15
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.4#26
Projected wins7.8#22
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Colts
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on IND
1–0
Picks against
+0.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.