BBMI Rank · #4 of 32

Buffalo Bills

Record 12-52025 SeasonPower rating +5.6

Analytics, not picks

Projected

12–5

100% playoff · 0% division

Offense elite · Defense above average · ranked 4th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #4

EPA/play

+0.109

4th

Pass EPA

+0.193

3rd

Rush EPA

+0.015

2nd

Defense

EPA #17

EPA/play

-0.014

17th

Pass def EPA

-0.033

6th

Rush def EPA

+0.040

30th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackA

EPA/dropback: +0.236 (#3)

J.Allen

ReceiversA

YAC EPA: -0.020 (#2)

K.Shakir

Running GameA

EPA/rush: +0.039 (#2)

J.Cook

O-LineA-

Stuff rate %: +15.900 (#8)

Pass RushB

Sack rate %: 6.500 (#16)

CoverageA-

Opp pass EPA: -0.050 (#6)

Run DefenseD

Opp rush EPA: 0.047 (#30)

Special TeamsC+

Net ST EPA: -29.700 (#21)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	vsBAL	W	41-40	+0.256	+0.394
2	@NYJ	W	30-10	+0.240	+0.030
3	vsMIA	W	31-21	+0.248	+0.031
4	vsNO	W	31-19	+0.223	-0.003
5	vsNE	L	20-23	+0.168	+0.014
6	@ATL	L	14-24	+0.109	+0.041
8	@CAR	W	40-9	+0.152	-0.029
9	vsKC	W	28-21	+0.164	-0.021
10	@MIA	L	13-30	+0.122	+0.036
11	vsTB	W	44-32	+0.147	+0.041
12	@HOU	L	19-23	+0.100	+0.023
13	@PIT	W	26-7	+0.100	-0.042
14	vsCIN	W	39-34	+0.125	-0.012
15	@NE	W	35-31	+0.146	+0.021
16	@CLE	W	23-20	+0.135	+0.002
17	vsPHI	L	12-13	+0.109	-0.014
18	vsNYJ	W	35-8	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

12–5

Playoff probability

100%

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Ranked 4th in BBMI Composite Rating — top 10 in the NFL
Josh Allen (QB) absence worth ~0.7 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Joey Bosa (DEF) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Without DaQuan Jones (DEF): ~1.3-point spread swing, +5.6% win probability (Calf, missed 5 games)
Shaq Thompson (DEF) absence worth ~0.5 points (Hamstring, missed 2 games)
Dalton Kincaid (WR) absence worth ~0.9 points (Oblique, missed 5 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.