AFC EAST • 2026 SEASON
Buffalo Bills
#3
BBMI rank
+5.2
Rating
10.8–6.2
Proj record
82%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
Game Picks →
Detroit Lions
THU SEP 17 • 7:15 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Buffalo Bills
—
Model line
-3.5
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at HOUW 36–31#14-1.053%
at HOUSep 17vs DETThu 7:15 PM#4-3.5
vs DETSep 27
vs LACSun 12:00 PM#11-3.0
vs LACOct 4
vs NESun 12:00 PM#10-3.0
vs NEOct 12
at LARMon 7:15 PM#1+3.0
at LAROct 18
at LVSun 3:25 PM#28-7.0
at LVNov 1
vs BALSun 12:00 PM#2-2.5
vs BALNov 9
at MINMon 7:15 PM#18-3.5
at MINNov 15
at NYJSun 12:00 PM#29-7.0
at NYJNov 22
vs MIASun 12:00 PM#31-11.5
vs MIANov 26
vs KCThu 7:20 PM#8-2.5
vs KCDec 6at NESun 3:25 PM#10-1.0
at NEDec 13
at GBSun 7:20 PM#12+1.5
at GBDec 19
vs CHISat 7:20 PM#15-3.5
vs CHIDec 25
at DENFri 3:30 PM#13-1.5
at DENJan 3at MIASun 12:00 PM#31-7.5
at MIAJan 10vs NYJSun 12:00 PM#29-10.0
vs NYJRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the AFC East65%
Make the playoffs82%
No. 1 seed (bye)15%
Reach the Super Bowl18%
Win the Super Bowl9%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims10.8
7891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 12 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 8 to 13. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.109#6
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.014#12
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.193#6
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.015#3
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.033#8
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.040#31
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.1#18
Projected wins10.8#5
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Bills
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on BUF
0–1
Picks against
-1.0u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.