BBMI Rank · #6 of 32

Denver Broncos

Record 14-32025 SeasonPower rating +4.6

Analytics, not picks

Projected

14–3

100% playoff · 100% division

Offense elite · Defense above average · ranked 6th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #13

EPA/play

+0.053

13th

Pass EPA

+0.112

15th

Rush EPA

-0.062

17th

Defense

EPA #2

EPA/play

-0.034

2nd

Pass def EPA

-0.041

3rd

Rush def EPA

-0.109

3rd

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackB

EPA/dropback: +0.107 (#15)

B.Nix

ReceiversA-

YAC EPA: -0.197 (#8)

C.Sutton

Running GameB-

EPA/rush: -0.071 (#17)

J.Dobbins

O-LineB+

Stuff rate %: +19.700 (#11)

Pass RushA

Sack rate %: 9.100 (#1)

CoverageA

Opp pass EPA: -0.037 (#3)

Run DefenseA

Opp rush EPA: -0.105 (#3)

Special TeamsB-

Net ST EPA: -13 (#20)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	vsTEN	W	20-12	-0.146	-0.429
2	@IND	L	28-29	+0.052	-0.132
3	@LAC	L	20-23	-0.013	-0.086
4	vsCIN	W	28-3	+0.052	-0.119
5	@PHI	W	21-17	+0.050	-0.084
6	@NYJ	W	13-11	+0.007	-0.158
7	vsNYG	W	33-32	+0.026	-0.083
8	vsDAL	W	44-24	+0.089	-0.054
9	@HOU	W	18-15	+0.059	-0.073
10	vsLV	W	10-7	+0.001	-0.124
11	vsKC	W	22-19	+0.003	-0.087
13	@WAS	W	27-26	+0.025	-0.062
14	@LV	W	24-17	+0.042	-0.051
15	vsGB	W	34-26	+0.059	-0.038
16	vsJAX	L	20-34	+0.049	-0.016
17	@KC	W	20-13	+0.053	-0.034
18	vsLAC	W	19-3	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

14–3

Playoff probability

100%

Division win

100%

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Ranked 6th in BBMI Composite Rating — top 10 in the NFL
Heavily pass-dependent — pass offense EPA 0.112 vs rush -0.062
Evan Engram (WR) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Jonah Elliss (DEF) absence worth ~0.6 points (undisclosed injury, missed 8 games)
Dre Greenlaw (DEF) absence worth ~0.7 points (Quadricep, missed 5 games)
Pat Surtain II (DEF) absence worth ~0.5 points (Pectoral, missed 8 games)
J.K. Dobbins (RB) absence worth ~0.4 points (Foot, missed 8 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.