BBMI Rank · #32 of 32

New York Jets

Record 3-142025 SeasonPower rating -10.9

Analytics, not picks

Projected

3–14

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense poor · Defense poor · ranked 32nd of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #28

EPA/play

-0.170

28th

Pass EPA

-0.137

30th

Rush EPA

-0.128

22nd

Defense

EPA #27

EPA/play

+0.170

27th

Pass def EPA

+0.277

32nd

Rush def EPA

-0.057

20th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackD

EPA/dropback: -0.131 (#30)

J.Fields

ReceiversD

YAC EPA: -0.383 (#32)

M.Taylor

Running GameC+

EPA/rush: -0.113 (#22)

B.Hall

O-LineC

Stuff rate %: +21 (#26)

Pass RushD

Sack rate %: 4.200 (#30)

CoverageD

Opp pass EPA: 0.290 (#32)

Run DefenseB-

Opp rush EPA: -0.034 (#20)

Special TeamsA

Net ST EPA: +46.100 (#1)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	vsPIT	L	32-34	+0.212	+0.200
2	vsBUF	L	10-30	-0.056	+0.213
3	@TB	L	27-29	-0.084	+0.129
4	@MIA	L	21-27	-0.028	+0.127
5	vsDAL	L	22-37	-0.019	+0.181
6	vsDEN	L	11-13	-0.107	+0.110
7	vsCAR	L	6-13	-0.137	+0.074
8	@CIN	W	39-38	-0.051	+0.105
10	vsCLE	W	27-20	-0.083	+0.080
11	@NE	L	14-27	-0.084	+0.089
12	@BAL	L	10-23	-0.101	+0.084
13	vsATL	W	27-24	-0.083	+0.098
14	vsMIA	L	10-34	-0.128	+0.115
15	@JAX	L	20-48	-0.132	+0.142
16	@NO	L	6-29	-0.168	+0.120
17	vsNE	L	10-42	-0.170	+0.170
18	@BUF	L	8-35	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

3–14

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

On a 3+ game losing streak
Missing key starters: Breece Hall, Mason Taylor
Without Justin Fields (QB): ~1.1-point spread swing, +4.8% win probability (Concussion, missed 8 games)
Breece Hall (RB) absence worth ~0.1 points (Knee, missed 1 game)
Francisco Mauigoa (DEF) absence worth ~0.5 points (undisclosed injury, missed 3 games)
Jermaine Johnson II (DEF) absence worth ~0.7 points (Ankle, missed 5 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.