AFC WEST • 2026 SEASON
Kansas City Chiefs
#4
BBMI rank
+4.2
Rating
11.2–5.8
Proj record
88%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Kansas City Chiefs
SUN NOV 1 • 3:25 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Denver Broncos
+1.8
Model line
-1.5
Market line
-3.3
Edge
44%
Win probability
Model assumes: Patrick Mahomes (KC) v Bo Nix (DEN)
Kansas City Chiefs 44%Denver Broncos 56%
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 14vs DENW 31–10#5-1.557%
vs DENSep 20
vs INDW 33–30#24-5.568%
vs INDSep 27
at MIAW 24–10#31-9.584%
at MIAOct 4
at LVW 30–27#23-4.566%
at LVOct 18
vs LACW 22–6#30-7.573%
vs LACOct 25
at SEAL 3–20#6+3.038%
at SEANov 1at DENSun 3:25 PM#5-1.544%
at DENNov 8
vs NYJSun 12:00 PM#27-9.5Premium
vs NYJNov 15
at ATLSun 12:00 PM#18-4.5Premium
at ATLNov 22
vs ARISun 12:00 PM#28-11.5Premium
vs ARINov 26
at BUFThu 7:20 PM#2+2.5Premium
at BUFDec 3
at LARThu 7:15 PM#13+3.5Premium
at LARDec 13
at CINSun 3:25 PM#7+1.5Premium
at CINDec 21
vs NEMon 7:15 PM#11-2.5Premium
vs NEDec 27
vs SFSun 3:25 PM#1-3.0Premium
vs SFJan 3at LACSun 12:00 PM#30+1.5Premium
at LACJan 10vs LVSun 12:00 PM#23-8.5Premium
vs LVModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#2#4#6#8#10
#5
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #507-28 #809-15 #609-22 #609-29 #310-06 #310-13 #310-20 #310-27 #5
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC West52%
Make the playoffs88%
No. 1 seed (bye)15%
Reach the Super Bowl14%
Win the Super Bowl7%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
11.2
891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 12 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 9 to 13. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.101#7
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.043#5
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.118#14
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.075#1
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.029#12
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.158#6
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.2#16
Projected wins11.2#5
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Chiefs
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on KC
4–2
Picks against
+1.6u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.