BBMI Rank · #25 of 32

Miami Dolphins

Record 7-102025 SeasonPower rating -2.7

Analytics, not picks

Projected

7–10

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense above average · Defense poor · ranked 25th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #16

EPA/play

+0.002

16th

Pass EPA

+0.016

26th

Rush EPA

-0.028

8th

Defense

EPA #24

EPA/play

+0.050

24th

Pass def EPA

+0.186

29th

Rush def EPA

-0.087

23rd

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackC

EPA/dropback: 0 (#26)

T.Tagovailoa

ReceiversB+

YAC EPA: -0.225 (#9)

J.Waddle

Running GameA-

EPA/rush: -0.028 (#8)

D.Achane

O-LineC+

Stuff rate %: +22.900 (#22)

Pass RushC+

Sack rate %: 6.200 (#21)

CoverageD

Opp pass EPA: 0.171 (#29)

Run DefenseC+

Opp rush EPA: -0.038 (#23)

Special TeamsA-

Net ST EPA: +26.100 (#5)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@IND	L	8-33	-0.257	+0.212
2	vsNE	L	27-33	-0.069	+0.252
3	@BUF	L	21-31	-0.031	+0.256
4	vsNYJ	W	27-21	+0.015	+0.211
5	@CAR	L	24-27	+0.033	+0.198
6	vsLAC	L	27-29	+0.032	+0.178
7	@CLE	L	6-31	-0.076	+0.143
8	@ATL	W	34-10	-0.030	+0.066
9	vsBAL	L	6-28	-0.061	+0.091
10	vsBUF	W	30-13	-0.001	+0.063
11	vsWAS	W	16-13	-0.002	+0.066
13	vsNO	W	21-17	-0.021	+0.032
14	@NYJ	W	34-10	+0.012	-0.029
15	@PIT	L	15-28	+0.005	+0.003
16	vsCIN	L	21-45	-0.007	+0.052
17	vsTB	W	20-17	+0.002	+0.050
18	@NE	L	10-38	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

7–10

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

De'Von Achane (WR) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Jaylen Waddle (WR) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Without Ethan Bonner (DEF): ~1.3-point spread swing, -5.6% win probability (Hamstring, missed 5 games)
Ifeatu Melifonwu (DEF) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Chop Robinson (DEF) absence worth ~0.2 points (Knee, missed 1 game)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.